IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jlands/v11y2022i12p2224-d995746.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Spatial–Temporal Evolution Patterns and Influencing Factors of China’s Urban Housing Price-to-Income Ratio

Author

Listed:
  • Wei Hu

    (College of Geography and Environmental Sciences, Zhejiang Normal University, Jinhua 321004, China
    Key Laboratory of Watershed Earth Surface Processes and Ecological Security, Zhejiang Normal University, Jinhua 321004, China)

  • Shanggang Yin

    (College of Geography and Environmental Sciences, Zhejiang Normal University, Jinhua 321004, China)

  • Haibo Gong

    (School of Geographical Science, Nanjing Normal University, Nanjing 210023, China)

Abstract

The housing price-to-income ratio (PIR) is an important indicator for measuring the health of the real estate market and detecting residents’ housing affordability. Including data of 336 cities in China from 2009 to 2020 as the research unit, the PIR’s spatial and temporal evolution characteristics are explored by using the urban rank-size rule and Markov chain, and its influencing factors are explored using the random forest model. The results show the following: (1) The PIR is in a normal distribution pattern, and there was a significant positive spatial correlation, which tended to increase. (2) Spatially, the PIR shows an overall distribution trend of “high in the east and low in the west”, and a rising trend of fluctuation is shown in the average PIR. (3) The PIR’s time evolution has high stability. China’s urban PIR is primarily the stable type from 2009 to 2015 and mainly the upward transfer type from 2015 to 2020. (4) The influence of economic, demographic, social, and expected factors on the PIR decreases, among which real estate investment density, industrial structure level, residents’ consumption level, and real estate activity are the dominant factors enhancing trends and showing a complex nonlinear relationship.

Suggested Citation

  • Wei Hu & Shanggang Yin & Haibo Gong, 2022. "Spatial–Temporal Evolution Patterns and Influencing Factors of China’s Urban Housing Price-to-Income Ratio," Land, MDPI, vol. 11(12), pages 1-15, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jlands:v:11:y:2022:i:12:p:2224-:d:995746
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2073-445X/11/12/2224/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2073-445X/11/12/2224/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Costello, Greg & Fraser, Patricia & Groenewold, Nicolaas, 2011. "House prices, non-fundamental components and interstate spillovers: The Australian experience," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(3), pages 653-669, March.
    2. Feng, Qu & Wu, Guiying Laura, 2015. "Bubble or riddle? An asset-pricing approach evaluation on China's housing market," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 376-383.
    3. Wen-Chi LIU, 2016. "Do Multiple Housing Bubbles Exist in China? Further Evidence from Generalized Sup ADF Tests," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(4), pages 135-145, December.
    4. Shanggang Yin & Zhifei Ma & Weixuan Song & Chunhui Liu, 2019. "Spatial Justice of a Chinese Metropolis: A Perspective on Housing Price-to-Income Ratios in Nanjing, China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(6), pages 1-15, March.
    5. Arshad, Sidra & Hu, Shougeng & Ashraf, Badar Nadeem, 2019. "Zipf’s law, the coherence of the urban system and city size distribution: Evidence from Pakistan," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 513(C), pages 87-103.
    6. Li Li & Ning Niu & Xiaojian Li, 2021. "Factors Affecting the Long-Term Development of Specialized Agricultural Villages North and South of Huai River," Land, MDPI, vol. 10(11), pages 1-13, November.
    7. Zhang, Chuanchuan & Jia, Shen & Yang, Rudai, 2016. "Housing affordability and housing vacancy in China: The role of income inequality," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 4-14.
    8. Nan-Kuang Chen & Han-Liang Cheng, 2017. "House price to income ratio and fundamentals: Evidence on long-horizon forecastability," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 22(3), pages 293-311, August.
    9. Mustapha Bangura & Chyi Lin Lee, 2022. "Housing price bubbles in Greater Sydney: evidence from a submarket analysis," Housing Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(1), pages 143-178, January.
    10. Ge, Teng & Wu, Tao, 2017. "Urbanization, inequality and property prices: Equilibrium pricing and transaction in the Chinese housing market," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 310-328.
    11. Aura Reggiani & Peter Nijkamp, 2015. "Did Zipf Anticipate Spatial Connectivity Structures?," Environment and Planning B, , vol. 42(3), pages 468-489, June.
    12. Lei Gan & Hong Ren & Weimin Xiang & Kun Wu & Weiguang Cai, 2021. "Nonlinear Influence of Public Services on Urban Housing Prices: A Case Study of China," Land, MDPI, vol. 10(10), pages 1-15, September.
    13. Ling Zhang & He Wang & Yan Song & Haizhen Wen, 2019. "Spatial Spillover of House Prices: An Empirical Study of the Yangtze Delta Urban Agglomeration in China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(2), pages 1-17, January.
    14. Yang Hu & Les Oxley, 2018. "Bubbles in US regional house prices: evidence from house price–income ratios at the State level," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 50(29), pages 3196-3229, June.
    15. Yun Si Li & Ai Hua Li & Zhi Feng Wang & Qiang Wu, 2019. "Analysis on Housing Affordability of Urban Residents in Mainland China Based on Multiple Indexes: Taking 35 Cities as Examples," Annals of Data Science, Springer, vol. 6(2), pages 305-319, June.
    16. Miguel A. Flores-Segovia & Francisco A. Castellanos-Sosa, 2021. "Proximity effects and labour specialization transitions in Mexico: a spatial Markov chain analysis," Regional Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 55(4), pages 575-589, April.
    17. John C. Weicher, 1977. "The Affordability of New Homes," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 5(2), pages 209-226, June.
    18. Shen, Ling, 2012. "Are house prices too high in China?," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 23(4), pages 1206-1210.
    19. Ka Man Leung & Chung Yim Yiu & Kin-kwok Lai, 2022. "Responsiveness of sub-divided unit tenants’ housing consumption to income: a study of Hong Kong informal housing," Housing Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(1), pages 50-72, January.
    20. Gan, Quan & Hill, Robert J., 2009. "Measuring housing affordability: Looking beyond the median," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 115-125, June.
    21. Peng Li & Shunfeng Song, 2016. "What Pushes Up China’s Urban Housing Price So High?," Chinese Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 49(2), pages 128-141, March.
    22. Damen, Sven & Vastmans, Frank & Buyst, Erik, 2016. "The effect of mortgage interest deduction and mortgage characteristics on house prices," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 15-29.
    23. Qiang Du & Min Wu & Yadan Xu & Xinran Lu & Libiao Bai & Ming Yu, 2018. "Club convergence and spatial distribution dynamics of carbon intensity in China’s construction industry," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 94(2), pages 519-536, November.
    24. Stephen Malpezzi, 1990. "Urban Housing and Financial Markets: Some International Comparisons," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 27(6), pages 971-1022, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Shanggang Yin & Zhifei Ma & Weixuan Song & Chunhui Liu, 2019. "Spatial Justice of a Chinese Metropolis: A Perspective on Housing Price-to-Income Ratios in Nanjing, China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(6), pages 1-15, March.
    2. Chaohai Shen & Tong Sheng & Xingheng Shi & Bingquan Fang & Xiaoqian Lu & Xiaolan Zhou, 2022. "The Relationship between Housing Price, Teacher Salary Improvement, and Sustainable Regional Economic Development," Land, MDPI, vol. 11(12), pages 1-21, December.
    3. Chunhui Liu & Weixuan Song, 2019. "Perspectives of Socio-Spatial Differentiation from Soaring Housing Prices: A Case Study in Nanjing, China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(9), pages 1-16, May.
    4. Xu Zhang & Xiaoxing Liu & Jianqin Hang & Dengbao Yao & Guangping Shi, 2016. "Do Urban Rail Transit Facilities Affect Housing Prices? Evidence from China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 8(4), pages 1-14, April.
    5. Chen, Jie & Hu, Mingzhi & Lin, Zhenguo, 2019. "Does housing unaffordability crowd out elites in Chinese superstar cities?," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 1-1.
    6. Ting Lan, 2019. "Intrinsic bubbles and Granger causality in the Hong Kong residential property market," Frontiers of Business Research in China, Springer, vol. 13(1), pages 1-15, December.
    7. Jie Wang & Biyu Peng & Xiaohua Xia & Zhu Ma, 2021. "Are Housing Prices Sustainable in 35 Large and Medium-Sized Chinese Cities? A Study Based on the Cheap Talk Game and Dynamic GMM," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(22), pages 1-18, November.
    8. Shuping Shi & Peter C.B. Phillips, 2023. "Diagnosing housing fever with an econometric thermometer," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 37(1), pages 159-186, February.
    9. Haijin Wu & Guofang Zhai & Wei Chen, 2020. "Combined Rental and Transportation Affordability under China’s Public Rental Housing System—A Case Study of Nanjing," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(21), pages 1-18, October.
    10. Ben-Shahar, Danny & Gabriel, Stuart & Golan, Roni, 2019. "Housing affordability and inequality:A consumption-adjusted approach," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 1-1.
    11. Hu, Mingzhi & Su, Yinxin & Ye, Wenping, 2019. "Promoting or inhibiting: The role of housing price in entrepreneurship," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 148(C).
    12. Peter D. Linneman & Isaac F. Megbolugbe, 1992. "Housing Affordability: Myth or Reality?," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 29(3-4), pages 369-392, May.
    13. Vinícius Oike Reginatto & Fernando F.A. Souza & Lucas Hernandes Porto & Rafael Butt Ferna Farias, 2021. "Acesso à moradia em São Paulo: visão geral e mensuração," LARES lares-2021-4drb, Latin American Real Estate Society (LARES).
    14. I-Chun Tsai & Shu-Hen Chiang, 2018. "Risk Transfer among Housing Markets in Major Cities in China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(7), pages 1-20, July.
    15. Peter Neuteboom & Dirk Brounen, 2011. "Assessing the Accessibility of the Homeownership Market," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 48(11), pages 2231-2248, August.
    16. Hanli Chen & Yu Zhang & Ningxin Zhang & Man Zhou & Heping Ding, 2022. "Analysis on the Spatial Effect of Infrastructure Development on the Real Estate Price in the Yangtze River Delta," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(13), pages 1-22, June.
    17. I-Chun Tsai & Chien-Wen Peng, 2012. "A panel data analysis for housing affordability in Taiwan," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 36(2), pages 335-350, April.
    18. Li, Keyang & Qin, Yu & Wu, Jing, 2020. "Recent housing affordability in urban China: A comprehensive overview," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 59(C).
    19. Wen-Yuan Lin & I-Chun Tsai, 2016. "Asymmetric Fluctuating Behavior of China's Housing Prices," China & World Economy, Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, vol. 24(2), pages 107-126, March.
    20. Yun Si Li & Ai Hua Li & Zhi Feng Wang & Qiang Wu, 2019. "Analysis on Housing Affordability of Urban Residents in Mainland China Based on Multiple Indexes: Taking 35 Cities as Examples," Annals of Data Science, Springer, vol. 6(2), pages 305-319, June.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jlands:v:11:y:2022:i:12:p:2224-:d:995746. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.