IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jjrfmx/v16y2023i3p203-d1098396.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Bayesian Statistics for Loan Default

Author

Listed:
  • Allan W. Tham

    (Faculty of Science and Technology, University of Canberra, Bruce, ACT 2602, Australia)

  • Kazuhiko Kakamu

    (Graduate School of Economics, Nagoya City University, Yamanohata 1, Mizuho-cho, Mizuho-ku, Nagoya 467-8501, Japan)

  • Shuangzhe Liu

    (Faculty of Science and Technology, University of Canberra, Bruce, ACT 2602, Australia)

Abstract

Bayesian inference has gained popularity in the last half of the twentieth century thanks to the wider applications in numerous fields such as economics, finance, physics, engineering, life sciences, environmental studies, and so forth. In this paper, we studied some key benefits of Bayesian inference and how they can be used in predicting loan default in the banking sector. Various traditional classification techniques are also presented to draw comparisons primarily in terms of the ease of interpretability and model performance. This paper includes the use of non-informative priors to attempt to arrive to the convergence of posterior distribution. Finally, with the Bayesian techniques proven to be an alternative to the classical approaches, the paper attempted to demonstrate that Bayesian techniques are indeed powerful in financial data analytics and applications.

Suggested Citation

  • Allan W. Tham & Kazuhiko Kakamu & Shuangzhe Liu, 2023. "Bayesian Statistics for Loan Default," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 16(3), pages 1-20, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jjrfmx:v:16:y:2023:i:3:p:203-:d:1098396
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1911-8074/16/3/203/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1911-8074/16/3/203/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Kazuhiko Kakamu & Haruhisa Nishino, 2019. "Bayesian Estimation of Beta-type Distribution Parameters Based on Grouped Data," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 54(2), pages 625-645, August.
    2. Katarzyna Bijak & Lyn C Thomas, 2015. "Modelling LGD for unsecured retail loans using Bayesian methods," Journal of the Operational Research Society, Palgrave Macmillan;The OR Society, vol. 66(2), pages 342-352, February.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Jobst, Rainer & Kellner, Ralf & Rösch, Daniel, 2020. "Bayesian loss given default estimation for European sovereign bonds," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 36(3), pages 1073-1091.
    2. Kazuhiko Kakamu, 2022. "Bayesian analysis of mixtures of lognormal distribution with an unknown number of components from grouped data," Papers 2210.05115, arXiv.org, revised Sep 2023.
    3. Tobias Eckernkemper & Bastian Gribisch, 2021. "Classical and Bayesian Inference for Income Distributions using Grouped Data," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 83(1), pages 32-65, February.
    4. Michel Lubrano & Zhou Xun, 2021. "The Bayesian approach to poverty measurement," AMSE Working Papers 2133, Aix-Marseille School of Economics, France.
    5. Betz, Jennifer & Kellner, Ralf & Rösch, Daniel, 2018. "Systematic Effects among Loss Given Defaults and their Implications on Downturn Estimation," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 271(3), pages 1113-1144.
    6. Coimbra, Nuno & Kim, Daisoon & Rey, Hélène, 2022. "Central Bank Policy and the concentration of risk: Empirical estimates," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 125(C), pages 182-198.
    7. Dimitris Andriosopoulos & Michalis Doumpos & Panos M. Pardalos & Constantin Zopounidis, 2019. "Computational approaches and data analytics in financial services: A literature review," Journal of the Operational Research Society, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 70(10), pages 1581-1599, October.
    8. Yao, Xiao & Crook, Jonathan & Andreeva, Galina, 2017. "Enhancing two-stage modelling methodology for loss given default with support vector machines," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 263(2), pages 679-689.
    9. Chih-Kang Chu & Ruey-Ching Hwang, 2019. "Predicting Loss Distributions for Small-Size Defaulted-Debt Portfolios Using a Convolution Technique that Allows Probability Masses to Occur at Boundary Points," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer;Western Finance Association, vol. 56(1), pages 95-117, August.
    10. Aneta Ptak-Chmielewska & Paweł Kopciuszewski, 2023. "Application of the Bayesian approach in loss given default modelling," Bank i Kredyt, Narodowy Bank Polski, vol. 54(6), pages 625-650.
    11. Tong, Edward N.C. & Mues, Christophe & Brown, Iain & Thomas, Lyn C., 2016. "Exposure at default models with and without the credit conversion factor," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 252(3), pages 910-920.
    12. Michel Lubrano & Zhou Xun, 2023. "The Bayesian approach to poverty measurement," Post-Print hal-04347292, HAL.
    13. Michel Lubrano & Zhou Xun, 2023. "The Bayesian approach to poverty measurement," Post-Print halshs-04135764, HAL.
    14. Xia, Yufei & Zhao, Junhao & He, Lingyun & Li, Yinguo & Yang, Xiaoli, 2021. "Forecasting loss given default for peer-to-peer loans via heterogeneous stacking ensemble approach," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 37(4), pages 1590-1613.
    15. Jennifer Betz & Ralf Kellner & Daniel Rösch, 2021. "Time matters: How default resolution times impact final loss rates," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series C, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 70(3), pages 619-644, June.
    16. Chen, Shou & Jiang, Xiangqian & He, Hongbo & Zhou, Xi, 2020. "A pricing model with dynamic repayment flows for guaranteed consumer loans," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 1-11.
    17. Do, Hung Xuan & Rösch, Daniel & Scheule, Harald, 2018. "Predicting loss severities for residential mortgage loans: A three-step selection approach," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 270(1), pages 246-259.
    18. Bai, Chunguang & Shi, Baofeng & Liu, Feng & Sarkis, Joseph, 2019. "Banking credit worthiness: Evaluating the complex relationships," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 26-38.
    19. Yuta Tanoue & Satoshi Yamashita & Hideaki Nagahata, 2020. "Comparison study of two-step LGD estimation model with probability machines," Risk Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 22(3), pages 155-177, September.
    20. Yan Liu & Zhan-jiang Li & Xue-jun Zhen, 2018. "Empirical Study on Indicators Selection Model Based on Nonparametric -Nearest Neighbor Identification and R Clustering Analysis," Complexity, Hindawi, vol. 2018, pages 1-9, April.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jjrfmx:v:16:y:2023:i:3:p:203-:d:1098396. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.