IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jijerp/v19y2022i11p6498-d825038.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Total and Cause-Specific Mortality in Pavia, Northern Italy

Author

Listed:
  • Pietro Perotti

    (Health Protection Agency of Pavia (ATS Pavia), 27100 Pavia, Italy)

  • Paola Bertuccio

    (Department of Public Health, Experimental and Forensic Medicine, University of Pavia, 27100 Pavia, Italy)

  • Stefano Cacitti

    (Department of Public Health, Experimental and Forensic Medicine, University of Pavia, 27100 Pavia, Italy)

  • Silvia Deandrea

    (Health Protection Agency of Pavia (ATS Pavia), 27100 Pavia, Italy)

  • Lorenza Boschetti

    (Health Protection Agency of Pavia (ATS Pavia), 27100 Pavia, Italy)

  • Simona Dalle Carbonare

    (Health Protection Agency of Pavia (ATS Pavia), 27100 Pavia, Italy)

  • Stefano Marguati

    (Health Protection Agency of Pavia (ATS Pavia), 27100 Pavia, Italy)

  • Simona Migliazza

    (Health Protection Agency of Pavia (ATS Pavia), 27100 Pavia, Italy)

  • Eleonora Porzio

    (Health Protection Agency of Pavia (ATS Pavia), 27100 Pavia, Italy)

  • Simona Riboli

    (Health Protection Agency of Pavia (ATS Pavia), 27100 Pavia, Italy)

  • Ennio Cadum

    (Health Protection Agency of Pavia (ATS Pavia), 27100 Pavia, Italy)

  • Lorella Cecconami

    (Health Protection Agency of Pavia (ATS Pavia), 27100 Pavia, Italy)

  • Anna Odone

    (Department of Public Health, Experimental and Forensic Medicine, University of Pavia, 27100 Pavia, Italy)

Abstract

The COVID-19 pandemic had an unfavorable impact on overall mortality in Italy, with the strongest consequences in northern Italy. Scant data are available on cause-specific mortality. This study aims at investigating the impact of the pandemic on the overall and cause-specific mortality in one province in northern Italy, Pavia. We linked individual-level administrative data (i.e., death certification and population data) from the Health Protection Agency (HPA) in Pavia province between 2015 and 2020. We computed age-standardized mortality rates (Italian population 2011) by cause, sex, and calendar year, and computed the rate ratio and the corresponding 95% confidence intervals to compare rates in 2020 versus 2015–2019. The 2020 excess total mortality in Pavia was 24% in men and 25% in women, reaching rates of 1272.6/100,000 and 1304.4/100,000, respectively. Significant excesses were found for infectious and parasitic diseases, excluding COVID-19 (about +30% in both sexes); respiratory system diseases (44% in men; 30% in women); and dementia and Alzheimer’s disease among men (24%). Reductions were reported for neoplasms (−14% in men); cerebrovascular diseases (−25% in men); and ischemic diseases (−13% in women), but also for transport accidents in men. COVID-19 was the third cause of death in both sexes with rates of 274.9/100,000 men (859 total deaths) and 213.9/100,000 women (758 total deaths). Excess mortality in Pavia was higher than Italy but lower than Lombardy. Increases in mortality from causes related to infectious and respiratory diseases can likely be explained by underdiagnosed deaths from COVID-19.

Suggested Citation

  • Pietro Perotti & Paola Bertuccio & Stefano Cacitti & Silvia Deandrea & Lorenza Boschetti & Simona Dalle Carbonare & Stefano Marguati & Simona Migliazza & Eleonora Porzio & Simona Riboli & Ennio Cadum , 2022. "Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Total and Cause-Specific Mortality in Pavia, Northern Italy," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(11), pages 1-10, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jijerp:v:19:y:2022:i:11:p:6498-:d:825038
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1660-4601/19/11/6498/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1660-4601/19/11/6498/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Augusto Cerqua & Roberta Di Stefano & Marco Letta & Sara Miccoli, 2021. "Local mortality estimates during the COVID-19 pandemic in Italy," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 34(4), pages 1189-1217, October.
    2. Carlo Signorelli & Anna Odone, 2020. "Age-specific COVID-19 case-fatality rate: no evidence of changes over time," International Journal of Public Health, Springer;Swiss School of Public Health (SSPH+), vol. 65(8), pages 1435-1436, November.
    3. Enrico Grande & Ugo Fedeli & Marilena Pappagallo & Roberta Crialesi & Stefano Marchetti & Giada Minelli & Ivano Iavarone & Luisa Frova & Graziano Onder & Francesco Grippo, 2022. "Variation in Cause-Specific Mortality Rates in Italy during the First Wave of the COVID-19 Pandemic: A Study Based on Nationwide Data," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(2), pages 1-13, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Resce, Giuliano & Vaquero-Piñeiro, Cristina, 2022. "Predicting agri-food quality across space: A Machine Learning model for the acknowledgment of Geographical Indications," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 112(C).
    2. Di Stefano, Roberta & Resce, Giuliano, "undated". "The Determinants of Missed Funding: Predicting the Paradox of Increased Need and Reduced Allocation," Economics & Statistics Discussion Papers esdp23092, University of Molise, Department of Economics.
    3. Marinella Bertolotti & Marta Betti & Fabio Giacchero & Chiara Grasso & Genny Franceschetti & Margherita Carotenuto & Anna Odone & Guglielmo Pacileo & Daniela Ferrante & Antonio Maconi, 2022. "Long-Term Survival among Patients Hospitalized for COVID-19 during the First Three Epidemic Waves: An Observational Study in a Northern Italy Hospital," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(22), pages 1-11, November.
    4. Resce, Giuliano, 2022. "The impact of political and non-political officials on the financial management of local governments," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 44(5), pages 943-962.
    5. Daniel L. Millimet & Christopher F. Parmeter, 2022. "COVID‐19 severity: A new approach to quantifying global cases and deaths," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 185(3), pages 1178-1215, July.
    6. Delogu, Marco & Lagravinese, Raffaele & Paolini, Dimitri & Resce, Giuliano, 2024. "Predicting dropout from higher education: Evidence from Italy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 130(C).
    7. Mauro Caselli & Andrea Fracasso & Sergio Scicchitano, 2022. "From the lockdown to the new normal: individual mobility and local labor market characteristics following the COVID-19 pandemic in Italy," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 35(4), pages 1517-1550, October.
    8. Giacomo Pietro Vigezzi & Paola Bertuccio & Andrea Amerio & Cristina Bosetti & Davide Gori & Luca Cavalieri d’Oro & Licia Iacoviello & David Stuckler & Alberto Zucchi & Silvano Gallus & Anna Odone & Lo, 2022. "Older Adults’ Access to Care during the COVID-19 Pandemic: Results from the LOckdown and LifeSTyles (LOST) in Lombardia Project," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(18), pages 1-14, September.
    9. Roy Cerqueti & Raffaella Coppier & Alessandro Girardi & Marco Ventura, 2022. "The sooner the better: lives saved by the lockdown during the COVID-19 outbreak. The case of Italy [Using synthetic controls: Feasibility, data requirements, and methodological aspects]," The Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 25(1), pages 46-70.
    10. Paola Bertuccio & Pietro Perotti & Giansanto Mosconi & Simona Dalle Carbonare & Federica Manzoni & Lorenza Boschetti & Stefano Marguati & Paolo Paraluppi & Lorenzo Blandi & Leandro Gentile & Maddalena, 2023. "The Effect of COVID-19 Pandemic on Overall and Cause-Specific Mortality in Pavia, Northern Italy: Updated Estimates for the Year 2021," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 20(8), pages 1-10, April.
    11. Resce, Giuliano, 2022. "Political and Non-Political Officials in Local Government," Economics & Statistics Discussion Papers esdp22079, University of Molise, Department of Economics.
    12. Caravaggio, Nicola & Resce, Giuliano, 2023. "Enhancing Healthcare Cost Forecasting: A Machine Learning Model for Resource Allocation in Heterogeneous Regions," Economics & Statistics Discussion Papers esdp23090, University of Molise, Department of Economics.
    13. Ascani, Andrea & Faggian, Alessandra & Montresor, Sandro & Palma, Alessandro, 2021. "Mobility in times of pandemics: Evidence on the spread of COVID19 in Italy's labour market areas," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 444-454.
    14. Federico Crudu & Roberta Di Stefano & Giovanni Mellace & Silvia Tiezzi, 2022. "The Gray Zone," Department of Economics University of Siena 874, Department of Economics, University of Siena.
    15. Ugo Fedeli & Claudio Barbiellini Amidei & Alessandro Marcon & Veronica Casotto & Francesco Grippo & Enrico Grande & Thomas Gaisl & Stefano Barco, 2022. "Mortality Related to Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease during the COVID-19 Pandemic: An Analysis of Multiple Causes of Death through Different Epidemic Waves in Veneto, Italy," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(19), pages 1-9, October.
    16. Cerqua, Augusto & Letta, Marco, 2022. "Local inequalities of the COVID-19 crisis," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 92(C).
    17. Gert Bijnens & Shyngys Karimov & Jozef Konings, 2023. "Does Automatic Wage Indexation Destroy Jobs? A Machine Learning Approach," De Economist, Springer, vol. 171(1), pages 85-117, March.
    18. Andrea Ascani & Alessandra Faggian & Sandro Montresor & Alessandro Palma, 2021. "Moving (within and across) spatial labour markets in times of COVID-19: evidence from Facebook mobility data on Italian labour market areas," Discussion Paper series in Regional Science & Economic Geography 2021-01, Gran Sasso Science Institute, Social Sciences, revised Jan 2021.
    19. Alicia N. M. Kraay & Kristin N. Nelson & Conan Y. Zhao & David Demory & Joshua S. Weitz & Benjamin A. Lopman, 2021. "Modeling serological testing to inform relaxation of social distancing for COVID-19 control," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 12(1), pages 1-10, December.
    20. Cerqua, Augusto & Letta, Marco, 2020. "Local economies amidst the COVID-19 crisis in Italy: a tale of diverging trajectories," MPRA Paper 104404, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jijerp:v:19:y:2022:i:11:p:6498-:d:825038. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.