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Global Incidence and Mortality Patterns of Pedestrian Road Traffic Injuries by Sociodemographic Index, with Forecasting: Findings from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors 2017 Study

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  • Moien A. B. Khan

    (Department of Family Medicine, College of Medicine and Health Sciences, United Arab Emirates University, Al Ain 15551, UAE
    Primary Care, NHS North West London, London TW3 3EB, UK)

  • Michal Grivna

    (Institute of Public Health, College of Medicine and Health Sciences, United Arab Emirates University, Al Ain 15551, UAE)

  • Javaid Nauman

    (Institute of Public Health, College of Medicine and Health Sciences, United Arab Emirates University, Al Ain 15551, UAE
    Department of Circulation and Medical Imaging, Faculty of Medicine and Health Sciences, Norwegian University of Science and Technology, 7491 Trondheim, Norway)

  • Elpidoforos S. Soteriades

    (Institute of Public Health, College of Medicine and Health Sciences, United Arab Emirates University, Al Ain 15551, UAE
    Harvard School of Public Health, Department of Environmental Health, Environmental and Occupational Medicine and Epidemiology (EOME), Boston, MA 02115, USA)

  • Arif Alper Cevik

    (Internal Medicine, Emergency Medicine Section, College of Medicine and Health Sciences, United Arab Emirates University, Al Ain 15551, UAE)

  • Muhammad Jawad Hashim

    (Department of Family Medicine, College of Medicine and Health Sciences, United Arab Emirates University, Al Ain 15551, UAE)

  • Romona Govender

    (Department of Family Medicine, College of Medicine and Health Sciences, United Arab Emirates University, Al Ain 15551, UAE)

  • Salma Rashid Al Azeezi

    (Department of Family Medicine, College of Medicine and Health Sciences, United Arab Emirates University, Al Ain 15551, UAE)

Abstract

(1) Background: Pedestrian injuries (PIs) represent a significant proportion of road traffic injuries. Our aim was to investigate the incidence and mortality of PIs in different age groups and sociodemographic index (SDI) categories between 1990 and 2017. (2) Method: Estimates of age-standardized incidence and mortality along with trends of PIs by SDI levels were obtained from the Global Burden of Disease from 1990 to 2017. We also forecasted the trends across all the SDI categories until 2040 using the Statistical Package for the Social Sciences (SPSS Statistics for Windows, version 23.0, Chicago, IL, USA) time series expert modeler. (3) Results: Globally, the incidence of PIs increased by 3.31% (−9.94 to 16.56) in 2017 compared to 1990. Men have higher incidence of PIs than women. Forecasted incidence was 132.02 (127.37 to 136.66) per 100,000 population in 2020, 101.52 (65.99 to 137.05) in 2030, and reduced further to 71.02 (10.62 to 152.65) by 2040. Globally across all SDI categories, there was a decreasing trend in mortality due to PIs with the global estimated percentage reduction of 37.12% (−45.19 to −29.04). (4) Conclusions: The results show that PIs are still a burden for all SDI categories despite some variation. Although incidence and mortality are expected to decrease globally, some SDI categories and specific vulnerable age groups may require particular attention. Further studies addressing incidence and mortality patterns in vulnerable SDI categories are needed.

Suggested Citation

  • Moien A. B. Khan & Michal Grivna & Javaid Nauman & Elpidoforos S. Soteriades & Arif Alper Cevik & Muhammad Jawad Hashim & Romona Govender & Salma Rashid Al Azeezi, 2020. "Global Incidence and Mortality Patterns of Pedestrian Road Traffic Injuries by Sociodemographic Index, with Forecasting: Findings from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors 2017 St," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 17(6), pages 1-15, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jijerp:v:17:y:2020:i:6:p:2135-:d:336001
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Loewe, Markus (Ed.) & Rippin, Nicole (Ed.), 2015. "Translating an ambitious vision into global transformation: the 2030 agenda for sustainable development," IDOS Discussion Papers 7/2015, German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS).
    2. Retting, R.A. & Ferguson, S.A. & McCartt, A.T., 2003. "A Review of Evidence-Based Traffic Engineering Measures Designed to Reduce Pedestrian-Motor Vehicle Crashes," American Journal of Public Health, American Public Health Association, vol. 93(9), pages 1456-1463.
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