IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jijerp/v17y2020i20p7434-d426946.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Malaria Transmission and Spillover across the Peru–Ecuador Border: A Spatiotemporal Analysis

Author

Listed:
  • Annika K. Gunderson

    (Duke Global Health Institute, Duke University, Durham, NC 27710, USA)

  • Rani E. Kumar

    (Nicholas School of the Environment, Duke University, Durham, NC 27710, USA)

  • Cristina Recalde-Coronel

    (Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences, Johns Hopkins University, 327 Olin Hall, 3400 N. Charles Street, Baltimore, MD 21218, USA
    Facultad de Ingeniería Marítima y Ciencias del Mar, Escuela Superior Politécnica del Litoral, Guayaquil 090150, Ecuador)

  • Luis E. Vasco

    (Instituto de Geografía, Colegio de Ciencias Biológicas y Ambientales, Universidad San Francisco de Quito, Quito 170104, Ecuador)

  • Andree Valle-Campos

    (Emerge, Emerging Diseases and Climate Change Research Unit, Universidad Cayetano Peruana Heredia, San Martín de Porres 15102, Peru)

  • Carlos F. Mena

    (Instituto de Geografía, Colegio de Ciencias Biológicas y Ambientales, Universidad San Francisco de Quito, Quito 170104, Ecuador)

  • Benjamin F. Zaitchik

    (Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences, Johns Hopkins University, 327 Olin Hall, 3400 N. Charles Street, Baltimore, MD 21218, USA)

  • Andres G. Lescano

    (Emerge, Emerging Diseases and Climate Change Research Unit, Universidad Cayetano Peruana Heredia, San Martín de Porres 15102, Peru)

  • William K. Pan

    (Duke Global Health Institute, Duke University, Durham, NC 27710, USA
    Nicholas School of the Environment, Duke University, Durham, NC 27710, USA)

  • Mark M. Janko

    (Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98121, USA)

Abstract

Border regions have been implicated as important hot spots of malaria transmission, particularly in Latin America, where free movement rights mean that residents can cross borders using just a national ID. Additionally, rural livelihoods largely depend on short-term migrants traveling across borders via the Amazon’s river networks to work in extractive industries, such as logging. As a result, there is likely considerable spillover across country borders, particularly along the border between Peru and Ecuador. This border region exhibits a steep gradient of transmission intensity, with Peru having a much higher incidence of malaria than Ecuador. In this paper, we integrate 13 years of weekly malaria surveillance data collected at the district level in Peru and the canton level in Ecuador, and leverage hierarchical Bayesian spatiotemporal regression models to identify the degree to which malaria transmission in Ecuador is influenced by transmission in Peru. We find that increased case incidence in Peruvian districts that border the Ecuadorian Amazon is associated with increased incidence in Ecuador. Our results highlight the importance of coordinated malaria control across borders.

Suggested Citation

  • Annika K. Gunderson & Rani E. Kumar & Cristina Recalde-Coronel & Luis E. Vasco & Andree Valle-Campos & Carlos F. Mena & Benjamin F. Zaitchik & Andres G. Lescano & William K. Pan & Mark M. Janko, 2020. "Malaria Transmission and Spillover across the Peru–Ecuador Border: A Spatiotemporal Analysis," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 17(20), pages 1-9, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jijerp:v:17:y:2020:i:20:p:7434-:d:426946
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1660-4601/17/20/7434/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1660-4601/17/20/7434/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Alisson Barbieri & David Carr & Richard Bilsborrow, 2009. "Migration Within the Frontier: The Second Generation Colonization in the Ecuadorian Amazon," Population Research and Policy Review, Springer;Southern Demographic Association (SDA), vol. 28(3), pages 291-320, June.
    2. Geir-Arne Fuglstad & Daniel Simpson & Finn Lindgren & Håvard Rue, 2019. "Constructing Priors that Penalize the Complexity of Gaussian Random Fields," Journal of the American Statistical Association, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 114(525), pages 445-452, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Andre Python & Andreas Bender & Marta Blangiardo & Janine B. Illian & Ying Lin & Baoli Liu & Tim C.D. Lucas & Siwei Tan & Yingying Wen & Davit Svanidze & Jianwei Yin, 2022. "A downscaling approach to compare COVID‐19 count data from databases aggregated at different spatial scales," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 185(1), pages 202-218, January.
    2. Daniel Coq-Huelva & Angie Higuchi & Rafaela Alfalla-Luque & Ricardo Burgos-Morán & Ruth Arias-Gutiérrez, 2017. "Co-Evolution and Bio-Social Construction: The Kichwa Agroforestry Systems ( Chakras ) in the Ecuadorian Amazonia," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 9(10), pages 1-19, October.
    3. Jonathan Wakefield & Taylor Okonek & Jon Pedersen, 2020. "Small Area Estimation for Disease Prevalence Mapping," International Statistical Review, International Statistical Institute, vol. 88(2), pages 398-418, August.
    4. Jacqueline D. Seufert & Andre Python & Christoph Weisser & Elías Cisneros & Krisztina Kis‐Katos & Thomas Kneib, 2022. "Mapping ex ante risks of COVID‐19 in Indonesia using a Bayesian geostatistical model on airport network data," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 185(4), pages 2121-2155, October.
    5. Paige, John & Fuglstad, Geir-Arne & Riebler, Andrea & Wakefield, Jon, 2022. "Bayesian multiresolution modeling of georeferenced data: An extension of ‘LatticeKrig’," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 173(C).
    6. C. Forlani & S. Bhatt & M. Cameletti & E. Krainski & M. Blangiardo, 2020. "A joint Bayesian space–time model to integrate spatially misaligned air pollution data in R‐INLA," Environmetrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 31(8), December.
    7. Guido Fioravanti & Michela Cameletti & Sara Martino & Giorgio Cattani & Enrico Pisoni, 2022. "A spatiotemporal analysis of NO2 concentrations during the Italian 2020 COVID‐19 lockdown," Environmetrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 33(4), June.
    8. Luis A. Barboza & Shu Wei Chou Chen & Marcela Alfaro Córdoba & Eric J. Alfaro & Hugo G. Hidalgo, 2023. "Spatio‐temporal downscaling emulator for regional climate models," Environmetrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 34(7), November.
    9. Daniel Coq-Huelva & Bolier Torres-Navarrete & Carlos Bueno-Suárez, 2018. "Indigenous worldviews and Western conventions: Sumak Kawsay and cocoa production in Ecuadorian Amazonia," Agriculture and Human Values, Springer;The Agriculture, Food, & Human Values Society (AFHVS), vol. 35(1), pages 163-179, March.
    10. Silius M. Vandeskog & Sara Martino & Daniela Castro-Camilo & Håvard Rue, 2022. "Modelling Sub-daily Precipitation Extremes with the Blended Generalised Extreme Value Distribution," Journal of Agricultural, Biological and Environmental Statistics, Springer;The International Biometric Society;American Statistical Association, vol. 27(4), pages 598-621, December.
    11. Alisson F. Barbieri, 2023. "Sustainability of Colonist Land Uses in the Amazon: A Demo-Livelihoods Perspective," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(19), pages 1-21, September.
    12. Tim C. D. Lucas & Anita K. Nandi & Elisabeth G. Chestnutt & Katherine A. Twohig & Suzanne H. Keddie & Emma L. Collins & Rosalind E. Howes & Michele Nguyen & Susan F. Rumisha & Andre Python & Rohan Ara, 2021. "Mapping malaria by sharing spatial information between incidence and prevalence data sets," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series C, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 70(3), pages 733-749, June.
    13. V. A. Alegana & C. Pezzulo & A. J. Tatem & B. Omar & A. Christensen, 2021. "Mapping out-of-school adolescents and youths in low- and middle-income countries," Palgrave Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 8(1), pages 1-10, December.
    14. Lindsey Carte & Álvaro Hofflinger & Molly H. Polk, 2021. "Expanding Exotic Forest Plantations and Declining Rural Populations in La Araucanía, Chile," Land, MDPI, vol. 10(3), pages 1-16, March.
    15. Zhang, Qi & Wang, Ying & Tao, Shiqi & Bilsborrow, Richard E. & Qiu, Tong & Liu, Chong & Sannigrahi, Srikanta & Li, Qirui & Song, Conghe, 2020. "Divergent socioeconomic-ecological outcomes of China’s conversion of cropland to forest program in the subtropical mountainous area and the semi-arid Loess Plateau," Ecosystem Services, Elsevier, vol. 45(C).
    16. Holland, Margaret B. & de Koning, Free & Morales, Manuel & Naughton-Treves, Lisa & Robinson, Brian E. & Suárez, Luis, 2014. "Complex Tenure and Deforestation: Implications for Conservation Incentives in the Ecuadorian Amazon," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 21-36.
    17. Xavier Barber & David Conesa & Antonio López-Quílez & Joaquín Martínez-Minaya & Iosu Paradinas & Maria Grazia Pennino, 2021. "Incorporating Biotic Information in Species Distribution Models: A Coregionalized Approach," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 9(4), pages 1-12, February.
    18. Wilson, Bradley, 2020. "Evaluating the INLA-SPDE approach for Bayesian modeling of earthquake damages from geolocated cluster data," Earth Arxiv 64whm, Center for Open Science.
    19. Jorge Sicacha-Parada & Diego Pavon-Jordan & Ingelin Steinsland & Roel May & Bård Stokke & Ingar Jostein Øien, 2022. "A Spatial Modeling Framework for Monitoring Surveys with Different Sampling Protocols with a Case Study for Bird Abundance in Mid-Scandinavia," Journal of Agricultural, Biological and Environmental Statistics, Springer;The International Biometric Society;American Statistical Association, vol. 27(3), pages 562-591, September.
    20. Heather Randell & Leah VanWey, 2014. "Networks Versus Need: Drivers of Urban Out-Migration in the Brazilian Amazon," Population Research and Policy Review, Springer;Southern Demographic Association (SDA), vol. 33(6), pages 915-936, December.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jijerp:v:17:y:2020:i:20:p:7434-:d:426946. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.