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Heat-Related Deaths in Hot Cities: Estimates of Human Tolerance to High Temperature Thresholds

Author

Listed:
  • Sharon L. Harlan

    (School of Human Evolution & Social Change, Arizona State University, Tempe, AZ 85287, USA)

  • Gerardo Chowell

    (School of Human Evolution & Social Change, Arizona State University, Tempe, AZ 85287, USA)

  • Shuo Yang

    (School of Mathematical & Statistical Sciences, Arizona State University, Tempe, AZ 85287, USA)

  • Diana B. Petitti

    (Department of Biomedical Informatics, Arizona State University, 13212 East Shea Boulevard, Scottsdale, AZ 85259, USA)

  • Emmanuel J. Morales Butler

    (School of Human Evolution & Social Change, Arizona State University, Tempe, AZ 85287, USA)

  • Benjamin L. Ruddell

    (Department of Engineering and Computing Systems, Polytechnic School, Arizona State University, 330M Peralta Hall, Mesa, AZ 85212, USA)

  • Darren M. Ruddell

    (Spatial Sciences Institute, University of Southern California, 3616 Trousdale Parkway, AHF B55, Los Angeles, CA 90089, USA)

Abstract

In this study we characterized the relationship between temperature and mortality in central Arizona desert cities that have an extremely hot climate. Relationships between daily maximum apparent temperature (AT max ) and mortality for eight condition-specific causes and all-cause deaths were modeled for all residents and separately for males and females ages <65 and ≥65 during the months May–October for years 2000–2008. The most robust relationship was between AT max on day of death and mortality from direct exposure to high environmental heat. For this condition-specific cause of death, the heat thresholds in all gender and age groups (AT max = 90–97 °F; 32.2‒36.1 °C) were below local median seasonal temperatures in the study period (AT max = 99.5 °F; 37.5 °C). Heat threshold was defined as AT max at which the mortality ratio begins an exponential upward trend. Thresholds were identified in younger and older females for cardiac disease/stroke mortality (AT max = 106 and 108 °F; 41.1 and 42.2 °C) with a one-day lag. Thresholds were also identified for mortality from respiratory diseases in older people (AT max = 109 °F; 42.8 °C) and for all-cause mortality in females (AT max = 107 °F; 41.7 °C) and males <65 years (AT max = 102 °F; 38.9 °C). Heat-related mortality in a region that has already made some adaptations to predictable periods of extremely high temperatures suggests that more extensive and targeted heat-adaptation plans for climate change are needed in cities worldwide.

Suggested Citation

  • Sharon L. Harlan & Gerardo Chowell & Shuo Yang & Diana B. Petitti & Emmanuel J. Morales Butler & Benjamin L. Ruddell & Darren M. Ruddell, 2014. "Heat-Related Deaths in Hot Cities: Estimates of Human Tolerance to High Temperature Thresholds," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 11(3), pages 1-23, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jijerp:v:11:y:2014:i:3:p:3304-3326:d:34197
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Alan Barreca & Karen Clay & Olivier Deschenes & Michael Greenstone & Joseph S. Shapiro, 2013. "Adapting to Climate Change: The Remarkable Decline in the U.S. Temperature-Mortality Relationship over the 20th Century," NBER Working Papers 18692, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Harlan, Sharon L. & Brazel, Anthony J. & Prashad, Lela & Stefanov, William L. & Larsen, Larissa, 2006. "Neighborhood microclimates and vulnerability to heat stress," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 63(11), pages 2847-2863, December.
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    Cited by:

    1. Junhyeong Lee & Wanhyung Lee & Won-Jun Choi & Seong-Kyu Kang & Seunghon Ham, 2019. "Association between Exposure to Extreme Temperature and Injury at the Workplace," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 16(24), pages 1-10, December.
    2. Ruth McDermott-Levy & Madeline Scolio & Kabindra M. Shakya & Caroline H. Moore, 2021. "Factors That Influence Climate Change-Related Mortality in the United States: An Integrative Review," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(15), pages 1-21, August.
    3. Jan C. Semenza, 2014. "Climate Change and Human Health," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 11(7), pages 1-7, July.
    4. Shinji Otani & Satomi Funaki Ishizu & Toshio Masumoto & Hiroki Amano & Youichi Kurozawa, 2021. "The Effect of Minimum and Maximum Air Temperatures in the Summer on Heat Stroke in Japan: A Time-Stratified Case-Crossover Study," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(4), pages 1-12, February.
    5. Jack Ngarambe & Mattheos Santamouris & Geun Young Yun, 2022. "The Impact of Urban Warming on the Mortality of Vulnerable Populations in Seoul," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(20), pages 1-26, October.

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