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Simulating Power Generation from Photovoltaics in the Polish Power System Based on Ground Meteorological Measurements—First Tests Based on Transmission System Operator Data

Author

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  • Jakub Jurasz

    (Department of Engineering Management, Faculty of Management, AGH University, 30-059 Cracow, Poland
    School of Business, Society and Engineering, MDH University, 722-20 Västerås, Sweden)

  • Marcin Wdowikowski

    (Institute of Meteorology and Water Management-National Research Institute, 01-673 Warsaw, Poland)

  • Mariusz Figurski

    (Institute of Meteorology and Water Management-National Research Institute, 01-673 Warsaw, Poland
    Faculty of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Gdansk University of Technology, 80-233 Gdansk, Poland)

Abstract

The Polish power system is undergoing a slow process of transformation from coal to one that is renewables dominated. Although coal will remain a fundamental fuel in the coming years, the recent upsurge in installed capacity of photovoltaic (PV) systems should draw significant attention. Owning to the fact that the Polish Transmission System Operator recently published the PV hourly generation time series in this article, we aim to explore how well those can be modeled based on the meteorological measurements provided by the Institute of Meteorology and Water Management. The hourly time series of PV generation on a country level and irradiation, wind speed, and temperature measurements from 23 meteorological stations covering one month are used as inputs to create an artificial neural network. The analysis indicates that available measurements combined with artificial neural networks can simulate PV generation on a national level with a mean percentage error of 3.2%.

Suggested Citation

  • Jakub Jurasz & Marcin Wdowikowski & Mariusz Figurski, 2020. "Simulating Power Generation from Photovoltaics in the Polish Power System Based on Ground Meteorological Measurements—First Tests Based on Transmission System Operator Data," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(16), pages 1-10, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:13:y:2020:i:16:p:4255-:d:400082
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    2. Schyska, Bruno U. & Kies, Alexander, 2020. "How regional differences in cost of capital influence the optimal design of power systems," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 262(C).
    3. Olauson, Jon, 2018. "ERA5: The new champion of wind power modelling?," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 126(C), pages 322-331.
    4. Olauson, Jon & Bergkvist, Mikael, 2015. "Modelling the Swedish wind power production using MERRA reanalysis data," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 717-725.
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    Cited by:

    1. Maria Krechowicz & Adam Krechowicz & Lech Lichołai & Artur Pawelec & Jerzy Zbigniew Piotrowski & Anna Stępień, 2022. "Reduction of the Risk of Inaccurate Prediction of Electricity Generation from PV Farms Using Machine Learning," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(11), pages 1-21, May.
    2. Natalia Iwaszczuk & Mariusz Trela, 2021. "Analysis of the Impact of the Assumed Moment of Meeting Total Energy Demand on the Profitability of Photovoltaic Installations for Households in Poland," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(6), pages 1-15, March.

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