IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jecomi/v11y2023i1p23-d1032187.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The Effect of Interest Rate Changes on Consumption: An Age-Structured Approach

Author

Listed:
  • Roman Kozlov

    (Department of Business and Management Science, Norwegian School of Economics, Helleveien 30, 5045 Bergen, Norway)

Abstract

Interest rates have generally trended downward over the past several decades. It has made borrowing cheaper, which has encouraged people to spend more. It has also made saving less attractive, contributing to increased consumption. At the same time, the role of household credit increased significantly. The paper suggests a model for the effect of an interest rate change on household consumption, which relies on income and loans. The model is based on methods of the optimal control theory. The approach is age-structured: households reconsider their consumption patterns at the moment of the interest rate change and the changes in consumption patterns are age dependent. The consumption changes for different age groups contribute to the modification of aggregate consumption. Numerical simulation shows that a decrease in the interest rate leads to a consumption boost (a substantial increase in consumption in the short run), which diminishes as time passes and consumption becomes fully adjusted to the new interest rate value. The consumption boost is achieved by an increase in the debt load.

Suggested Citation

  • Roman Kozlov, 2023. "The Effect of Interest Rate Changes on Consumption: An Age-Structured Approach," Economies, MDPI, vol. 11(1), pages 1-25, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jecomi:v:11:y:2023:i:1:p:23-:d:1032187
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2227-7099/11/1/23/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2227-7099/11/1/23/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Olivier Blanchard, 2019. "Public Debt and Low Interest Rates," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 109(4), pages 1197-1229, April.
    2. Milton Friedman, 1957. "Introduction to "A Theory of the Consumption Function"," NBER Chapters, in: A Theory of the Consumption Function, pages 1-6, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Rogoff, Kenneth, 2020. "Falling real interest rates, rising debt: A free lunch?," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 42(4), pages 778-790.
    4. Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas & Jonathan A. Parker, 2002. "Consumption Over the Life Cycle," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 70(1), pages 47-89, January.
    5. Orazio P. Attanasio & Guglielmo Weber, 2010. "Consumption and Saving: Models of Intertemporal Allocation and Their Implications for Public Policy," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 48(3), pages 693-751, September.
    6. Atif Mian & Amir Sufi & Emil Verner, 2017. "Household Debt and Business Cycles Worldwide," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 132(4), pages 1755-1817.
    7. Gylfason, Thorvaldur, 1981. "Interest Rates, Inflation, and the Aggregate Consumption Function," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 63(2), pages 233-245, May.
    8. Kureishi, Wataru & Paule-Paludkiewicz, Hannah & Tsujiyama, Hitoshi & Wakabayashi, Midori, 2021. "Time preferences over the life cycle and household saving puzzles," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 124(C), pages 123-139.
    9. Markus Christen & Ruskin Morgan, 2005. "Keeping Up With the Joneses: Analyzing the Effect of Income Inequality on Consumer Borrowing," Quantitative Marketing and Economics (QME), Springer, vol. 3(2), pages 145-173, June.
    10. León Navarro, Manuel & Flores de Frutos, Rafael, 2015. "Residential versus financial wealth effects on consumption from a shock in interest rates," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 81-90.
    11. Jakob Kapeller & Bernhard Schütz, 2014. "Debt, boom, bust: a theory of Minsky-Veblen cycles," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(4), pages 781-814.
    12. Taylor, Mark P, 1999. "Real Interest Rates and Macroeconomic Activity," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press and Oxford Review of Economic Policy Limited, vol. 15(2), pages 95-113, Summer.
    13. Milton Friedman, 1957. "A Theory of the Consumption Function," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number frie57-1, May.
    14. Esra Alp & Unal Seven, 2019. "The dynamics of household final consumption: The role of wealth channel," Central Bank Review, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey, vol. 19(1), pages 21-32.
    15. Fortune, Peter & Ortmeyer, David L., 1985. "The roles of relative prices, interest rates, and bequests in the consumption function," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 7(3), pages 381-400.
    16. Manuel Leon Navarro & Rafael Flores de Frutos, 2012. "Consumption and housing wealth breakdown of the effect of a rise in interest rates," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 44(16), pages 2091-2110, June.
    17. Carlino, Gerald A., 1982. "Interest rate effects and intertemporal consumption," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 9(2), pages 223-234.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Dongjing Chen & Xiaotong Guo, 2023. "Impact of the Digital Economy and Financial Development on Residents’ Consumption Upgrading: Evidence from Mainland China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(10), pages 1-25, May.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Kozlov, Roman, 2021. "An age-structured model for the effect of interest rate changes on consumption," Discussion Papers 2021/8, Norwegian School of Economics, Department of Business and Management Science.
    2. van de Ven, Justin, 2011. "A structural dynamic microsimulation model of household savings and labour supply," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(4), pages 2054-2070, July.
    3. Christian Alexander Belabed, 2015. "Income Distribution and the Great Depression," IMK Working Paper 153-2015, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute.
    4. Annamaria Lusardi & Olivia S. Mitchell, 2014. "The Economic Importance of Financial Literacy: Theory and Evidence," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 52(1), pages 5-44, March.
    5. Wei-Yin Hu & Olivia S. Mitchell & Cynthia Pagliaro & Stephen P. Utkus, 2013. "Evaluating Web-based Savings Interventions: A Preliminary Assessment," Working Papers wp299, University of Michigan, Michigan Retirement Research Center.
    6. Jakob Kapeller & Bernhard Schütz, 2015. "Conspicuous Consumption, Inequality and Debt: The Nature of Consumption-driven Profit-led Regimes," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 66(1), pages 51-70, February.
    7. Konstantina Manou & Panagiotis Palaios & Evangelia Papapetrou, 2019. "Housing wealth, household debt and financial assets: are there implications for consumption?," Working Papers 263, Bank of Greece.
    8. Bram De Rock & Bart Capéau, 2015. "The implications of household size and children for life-cycle saving," Working Paper Research 286, National Bank of Belgium.
    9. Klos, Alexander & Rottke, Simon, 2013. "Saving and Consumption When Children Move Out," VfS Annual Conference 2013 (Duesseldorf): Competition Policy and Regulation in a Global Economic Order 79786, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    10. Till Treeck, 2014. "Did Inequality Cause The U.S. Financial Crisis?," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 28(3), pages 421-448, July.
    11. Evren Ceritoglu, 2017. "The effect of house price changes on cohort consumption in Turkey," Central Bank Review, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey, vol. 17(3), pages 1-99–110.
    12. Yulei Luo & William T. Smith & Heng-fu Zou, 2009. "The Spirit of Capitalism and Excess Smoothness," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 10(2), pages 281-301, November.
    13. Christian A Belabed & Thomas Theobald & Till van Treeck, 2018. "Income distribution and current account imbalances [Notes on capacity utilisation, distribution and accumulation]," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Cambridge Political Economy Society, vol. 42(1), pages 47-94.
    14. Yunus Aksoy & Henrique S. Basso & Carolyn St Aubyn, 2019. "Time Variation in Lifecycle Consumption and Income," BCAM Working Papers 1904, Birkbeck Centre for Applied Macroeconomics.
    15. Kai Liu, 2010. "Wage Risk, On-the-job Search and Partial Insurance," 2010 Meeting Papers 1136, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    16. Akhand Akhtar Hossain, 2009. "Central Banking and Monetary Policy in the Asia-Pacific," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 12777.
    17. Schulz, Jan & Mayerhoffer, Daniel M., 2021. "A network approach to consumption," BERG Working Paper Series 173, Bamberg University, Bamberg Economic Research Group.
    18. Christensen, Peter Ove & Larsen, Kasper & Munk, Claus, 2012. "Equilibrium in securities markets with heterogeneous investors and unspanned income risk," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 147(3), pages 1035-1063.
    19. Meghir, Costas & Pistaferri, Luigi, 2011. "Earnings, Consumption and Life Cycle Choices," Handbook of Labor Economics, in: O. Ashenfelter & D. Card (ed.), Handbook of Labor Economics, edition 1, volume 4, chapter 9, pages 773-854, Elsevier.
    20. De Veirman Emmanuel & Dunstan Ashley, 2011. "Time-Varying Returns, Intertemporal Substitution and Cyclical Variation in Consumption," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 11(1), pages 1-41, July.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jecomi:v:11:y:2023:i:1:p:23-:d:1032187. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.