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On recognizing inflation

Author

Listed:
  • William E. Cullison

Abstract

Forecasters experienced considerable difficulty in recognizing rising inflation and predicting its intensity in 1972-82. Possible explanations discussed are: 1) unpredictable supply shocks, 2) excessive attention to nonmonetary developments, and 3) actual money growth overshooting its targeted growth rate.

Suggested Citation

  • William E. Cullison, 1988. "On recognizing inflation," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, vol. 74(Jul), pages 4-12.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedrer:y:1988:i:jul:p:4-12:n:v.74no.4
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    File URL: https://fraser.stlouisfed.org/files/docs/publications/frbrichreview/rev_frbrich198807.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Stephen H. Axilrod, 1985. "U.S. monetary policy in recent years: an overview," Federal Reserve Bulletin, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.), issue Jan, pages 14-24.
    2. Victor Zarnowitz, 1986. "The Record and Improvability of Economic Forecasting," NBER Working Papers 2099, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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    Cited by:

    1. Robert L. Hetzel, 2000. "The Taylor rule : is it a useful guide to understanding monetary policy?," Economic Quarterly, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, issue Spr, pages 1-33.
    2. Hendrickson, Joshua R., 2012. "An overhaul of Federal Reserve doctrine: Nominal income and the Great Moderation," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 34(2), pages 304-317.
    3. Tazwell S. Rowe & Roy H. Webb, 1995. "An index of leading indicators for inflation," Economic Quarterly, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, issue Spr, pages 75-96.
    4. Smant, David J. C., 1998. "Modelling trends, expectations and the cyclical behaviour of prices," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 15(1), pages 151-161, January.

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    Keywords

    Inflation (Finance); Forecasting;

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