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FOMC learning and productivity growth (1985-2003): a reading of the record

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Abstract

The increasingly rapid productivity growth that began in the 1990s was the defining economic event of the decade and a major topic of debate among Federal Reserve policymakers. A key aspect of the debate was the contrast between information contained in aggregate data, which initially suggested little productivity gain, and anecdotal firm-level evidence, which hinted at the productivity acceleration. The authors revisit this debate from the actual FOMC transcripts. Their study illustrates the process by which policymakers filter incoming data to identify changes in underlying fundamental trends.

Suggested Citation

  • Richard G. Anderson & Kevin L. Kliesen, 2010. "FOMC learning and productivity growth (1985-2003): a reading of the record," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 92(Mar), pages 129-154.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedlrv:y:2010:i:mar:p:129-154:n:v.92no.2
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    1. Lutz Kilian & Simone Manganelli, 2008. "The Central Banker as a Risk Manager: Estimating the Federal Reserve's Preferences under Greenspan," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 40(6), pages 1103-1129, September.
    2. repec:ucp:bkecon:9780226519999 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Richard G. Anderson & Kevin L. Kliesen, 2006. "The 1990s acceleration in labor productivity: causes and measurement," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 88(May), pages 181-202.
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    Cited by:

    1. Jan P. A. M. Jacobs & Simon van Norden, 2010. "Lessons from the latest data on U.S. productivity," Working Papers 11-1, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
    2. Richard G. Anderson & Kevin L. Kliesen, 2011. "How does the FOMC learn about economic revolutions? evidence from the New Economy Era, 1994-2001," Working Papers 2011-041, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    3. Jacobs, Jan P.A.M. & van Norden, Simon, 2016. "Why are initial estimates of productivity growth so unreliable?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 47(PB), pages 200-213.
    4. Jeremy J. Nalewaik, 2011. "The Income- and Expenditure-Side Estimates of U.S. Output Growth — An Update to 2011Q2," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 43(2 (Fall)), pages 385-411.

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