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The 2001 recession: how was it different and what developments may have caused it?

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Author Info
Kevin L. Kliesen

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Abstract

The 2001 recession was unique in several respects. For instance, the peak-to-trough decline in real gross domestic product was one of the smallest on record and its duration was slightly shorter than average. This article examines some of the other unique features of the 2001 recession compared with the “average” post-World War II recession. The author also shows that forecasters were surprised by the onset of the recession, perhaps because of incomplete data available to them in real time. Finally, the article examines the errors from a well-known macroeconomic forecast and finds that forecasters were surprised by the declines in real business and household fixed investment, as well as real net exports, before the March 2001 business cycle peak.

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Publisher Info
Article provided by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis in its journal Review.

Volume (Year): (2003)
Issue (Month): Sep ()
Pages: 23-38
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedlrv:y:2003:i:sep:p:23-38:n:v.85no.5

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Keywords: Recessions ; Economic indicators ; Business cycles;

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Balke, Nathan S & Wynne, Mark A, 1996. "Are Deep Recessions Followed by Strong Recoveries? Results for the G-7 Countries," Applied Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 28(7), pages 889-97, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. Dennis J. Fixler & Bruce T. Grimm, 2003. "Revisions, Rationality, and Turning Points in GDP," BEA Working Papers 0009, Bureau of Economic Analysis. [Downloadable!]
  3. Boldin, Michael D, 1994. "Dating Turning Points in the Business Cycle," Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 67(1), pages 97-131, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Jeffrey C. Fuhrer & Scott Schuh, 1998. "Beyond shocks: what causes business cycles? an overview," Conference Series ; [Proceedings], Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, issue Jun, pages 1-31. [Downloadable!]
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  5. Ricardo J. Caballero & Mohamad L. Hammour, 2002. "Speculative Growth," NBER Working Papers 9381, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Marcelle Chauvet & Jeremy M. Piger, 2003. "Identifying business cycle turning points in real time," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Mar, pages 47-61. [Downloadable!]
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