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How Much Do Oil Prices Affect Inflation?

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Abstract

It is puzzling why large monthly or quarterly oil price changes predict very small changes in the CPI but daily oil prices predict large changes in breakeven inflation.

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  • Christopher J. Neely, 2015. "How Much Do Oil Prices Affect Inflation?," Economic Synopses, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue 10.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedles:00037
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. G. Elliott & C. Granger & A. Timmermann (ed.), 2013. "Handbook of Economic Forecasting," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, Elsevier, edition 1, volume 2, number 2.
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    1. Biman Prasad & Paresh K. Narayan & Joel Abraham, 2023. "How Effective Are Price Regulator’S Price Control Measures?," Bulletin of Monetary Economics and Banking, Bank Indonesia, vol. 26(4), pages 563-570, November.
    2. Salisu, Afees A. & Ademuyiwa, Idris & Isah, Kazeem O., 2018. "Revisiting the forecasting accuracy of Phillips curve: The role of oil price," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 334-356.
    3. Salisu, Afees A. & Isah, Kazeem O., 2018. "Predicting US inflation: Evidence from a new approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 134-158.
    4. Nor Ermawati Hussain & Mohd Shahidan Shaari & Diana Nabila Chau Abdullah, 2018. "Effects of Retailing Selling Prices of Petrol and Diesel on Food Prices," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 8(4), pages 28-32.
    5. Kabukçuoğlu, Ayşe & Martínez-García, Enrique, 2018. "Inflation as a global phenomenon—Some implications for inflation modeling and forecasting," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 46-73.
    6. Salisu, Afees A. & Isah, Kazeem O., 2018. "Predicting US inflation: Evidence from a new approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 134-158.
    7. Serikbay Ydyrys & Malika Munasipova & Kanat Ydyrys & Mariyam Ydyrys & Lyazzat Mukhambetova & Guldana Temirbayeva, 2018. "Econometric Analysis of Effect of Oil Price Change, Trade Balance and Other Variables on Inflation," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 8(4), pages 134-138.

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