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AIL theory and the ailing Phillips curve: a contract based approach to aggregate supply

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  • Roger E.A. Farmer

Abstract

This paper presents empirical evidence from U.S. data of a structurally stable aggregate supply relationship between real and nominal rates of interest and the rate of unemployment. The paper reviews theories of contracts that are based on the twin assumptions of asymmetric information and limited collateral and it argues that these theories (referred to as A.I.L. theories) provide a strong theoretical foundation for a contract-based theory of aggregate supply. It is suggested that the original Phillips curve estimates should be reinterpreted in the light of A.I.L. theories which represent alternatives to the Phelps-Friedman interpretation of the Phillips relationship.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco in its journal Proceedings.

Volume (Year): (1989)
Issue (Month): ()
Pages:

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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedfpr:y:1989:x:7

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Keywords: Phillips curve ; Supply and demand;

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References

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  1. Ben S. Bernanke, 1983. "Non-Monetary Effects of the Financial Crisis in the Propagation of the Great Depression," NBER Working Papers 1054, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Steven M. Fazzari & R. Glenn Hubbard & BRUCE C. PETERSEN, 1988. "Financing Constraints and Corporate Investment," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 19(1), pages 141-206.
  3. Sargan, John Denis & Bhargava, Alok, 1983. "Testing Residuals from Least Squares Regression for Being Generated by the Gaussian Random Walk," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 51(1), pages 153-74, January.
  4. Litterman, Robert B & Weiss, Laurence M, 1985. "Money, Real Interest Rates, and Output: A Reinterpretation of Postwar U.S. Data," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 53(1), pages 129-56, January.
  5. Mark L. Gertler, 1988. "Financial Structure and Aggregate Economic Activity: An Overview," NBER Working Papers 2559, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Roger B. Myerson, 1977. "Incentive Compatability and the Bargaining Problem," Discussion Papers 284, Northwestern University, Center for Mathematical Studies in Economics and Management Science.
  7. Romer, Christina, 1986. "Spurious Volatility in Historical Unemployment Data," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 94(1), pages 1-37, February.
  8. Olivier J. Blanchard & Lawrence H. Summers, 1986. "Hysteresis and the European Unemployment Problem," Working papers 427, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
  9. Farmer, Roger E A, 1984. "A New Theory of Aggregate Supply," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 74(5), pages 920-30, December.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Asea, P.K. & Blomberg, S.B., 1997. "Lending Cycles," Papers 97-01, Wellesley College - Department of Economics.
  2. Bierens, H.J. & Broersma, L., 1990. "The relation between unemployment and interest rate : some empirical evidence," Serie Research Memoranda 0078, VU University Amsterdam, Faculty of Economics, Business Administration and Econometrics.
  3. Broersma, L., 1991. "The relation between unemployment and interest rate : application of an ARX approach," Serie Research Memoranda 0057, VU University Amsterdam, Faculty of Economics, Business Administration and Econometrics.
  4. Bierens, H.J. & Broersma, L., 1991. "The relation between unemployment and interest rate : some international evidence," Serie Research Memoranda 0112, VU University Amsterdam, Faculty of Economics, Business Administration and Econometrics.

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