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Oil prices: backward to the future?

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Author Info

  • Joseph G. Haubrich
  • Patrick Higgins
  • Janet Miller

Abstract

A useful first guess about the future spot price of a commodity is usually found in its current futures price. But it doesn’t work that way when the commodity in question is oil. This Commentary explains why the characteristics of oil, particularly the value it can offer its owner by remaining in the ground, cloud the information that oil futures prices give about future oil prices.

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File URL: http://www.clevelandfed.org/Research/commentary/2004/Decnew.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland in its journal Economic Commentary.

Volume (Year): (2004)
Issue (Month): Dec ()
Pages:

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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedcec:y:2004:i:dec

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Keywords: Petroleum industry and trade ; Futures;

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Cited by:
  1. Amstad, Marlene & Hildebrand, Philipp, 2005. "The oil price and monetary policy – a new paradigm," MPRA Paper 15562, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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