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Global and Local Sources of Risk in Eastern European Emerging Stock Markets

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Abstract

We study a pricing model for global and local sources of risk in six Eastern European emerging stock markets. Utilizing GMM estimation and an unconditional asset-pricing framework with and without time-varying betas, we perform estimations based on monthly data from 1996 to 2007 for Poland, the Czech Republic, Hungary, Bulgaria, Slovenia, and Russia. Most of these markets display considerable segmentation; the aggregate emerging market risk, as opposed to global market risk, is the significant driver for their stock market returns. It also appears that currency risk is priced into stock prices. The difference between local and global interest rates can be used to model the time-variation in the betas for both sources of risk.

Suggested Citation

  • Elena Fedorova & Mika Vaihekoski, 2009. "Global and Local Sources of Risk in Eastern European Emerging Stock Markets," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 59(1), pages 2-19, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:fau:fauart:v:59:y:2009:i:1:p:2-19
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    Cited by:

    1. Fedorova, Elena, 2011. "Transfer of financial risk in emerging eastern European stock markets : A sectoral perspective," BOFIT Discussion Papers 24/2011, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
    2. Mohanty, Sunil & Nandha, Mohan & Bota, Gabor, 2010. "Oil shocks and stock returns: The case of the Central and Eastern European (CEE) oil and gas sectors," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 11(4), pages 358-372, December.
    3. repec:zbw:bofitp:2011_024 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Dejan ŽIVKOV & Jovan NJEGIĆ & Ivan MILENKOVIĆ, 2018. "Interrelationship between DAX Index and Four Largest Eastern European Stock Markets," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(3), pages 88-103, September.
    5. Numan Ülkü, 2011. "Modeling Comovement among Emerging Stock Markets: The Case of Budapest and Istanbul," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 61(3), pages 277-304, July.
    6. Saleem, Kashif & Vaihekoski, Mika, 2010. "Time-varying global and local sources of market and currency risks in Russian stock market," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(4), pages 686-697, October.
    7. Laura Wallenius & Elena Fedorova & Sheraz Ahmed & Mikael Collan, . "Surprise Effect of Euro Area Macroeconomic Announcements on CIVETS Stock Markets," Prague Economic Papers, University of Economics, Prague, vol. 0, pages 1-17.
    8. Elena Fedorova & Kashif Saleem, 2010. "Volatility Spillovers between Stock and Currency Markets: Evidence from Emerging Eastern Europe," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 60(6), pages 519-533, December.
    9. Vit Posta, 2012. "Time-Varying Risk Premium in the Czech Capital Market: Did the Market Experience a Structural Shock in 2008–2009?," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 62(5), pages 450-470, November.
    10. Waszczuk, Antonina, 2013. "A risk-based explanation of return patterns—Evidence from the Polish stock market," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 15(C), pages 186-210.
    11. Laura Wallenius & Elena Fedorova & Sheraz Ahmed & Mikael Collan, 2017. "Surprise Effect of Euro Area Macroeconomic Announcements on CIVETS Stock Markets," Prague Economic Papers, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2017(1), pages 55-71.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    market integration; segmentation; asset pricing; emerging markets; Eastern Europe country risk;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F36 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Financial Aspects of Economic Integration
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

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