Hits and Misses: Ten Years of Czech Inflation Targeting (Introduction)
AbstractThe first 10 years of Czech Republic's inflation targeting regime have been remarkable by the persistent undershooting of the inflation targets. This article is an introduction to a special issue aimed at analyzing the factors of the undershooting. The articles in this issue explore the following hypotheses: the impact of a series of counter-inflationary shocks; a biased forecasting system; a faulty decision-making system; and the role of inflation expectations. Based on a meta-analysis of the articles, this introduction suggests that the undershooting cannot be explained by a single factor, although counter-inflationary shocks are identified most frequently. The impact of the undershooting on central bank credibility was modest, partly because the forecasts were accompanied by explicit discussions of the forecast risks.
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Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences in its journal Finance a uver - Czech Journal of Economics and Finance.
Volume (Year): 58 (2008)
Issue (Month): 09-10 (December)
inflation targeting; forecasting system; inflation expectations;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
- E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
- E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
- E47 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
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