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Inflation Targeting and Communication: Should the Public Read Inflation Reports or Tea Leaves?

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Author Info

  • Ales Bulir
  • Katerina Smidkova
  • Viktor Kotlan
  • David Navratil

Abstract

Inflation-targeting central banks have a respectable track record at explaining their policy actions and corresponding inflation outturns. Using a simple forward-looking policy rule and an assessment of inflation reports, we provide a new methodology for the empirical evaluation of consistency in central bank communication. We find that the three communication tools—inflation targets, inflation forecasts, and verbal assessments of inflation factors contained in quarterly inflation reports—provided a consistent message in five out of six observations in our 2000–05 sample of Chile, the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Thailand, and Sweden.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Czech National Bank, Research Department in its series Working Papers with number 2007/14.

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Date of creation: Dec 2007
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Handle: RePEc:cnb:wpaper:2007/14

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Keywords: Emerging markets; forecasting; inflation targeting; monetary policy; transparency.;

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Cited by:
  1. Katerina Smidkova, 2008. "Evaluation of the Fulfilment of the CNB's Inflation Targets," Occasional Publications - Chapters in Edited Volumes, in: Katerina Smidkova (ed.), Evaluation of the Fulfilment of the CNB's Inflation Targets 1998-2007, chapter 1, pages 10-17 Czech National Bank, Research Department.
  2. Juraj Antal & Michal Hlavacek & Tomas Holub, 2008. "Basic Characteristics of Inflation Targeting in the Czech Republic," Occasional Publications - Chapters in Edited Volumes, in: Katerina Smidkova (ed.), Evaluation of the Fulfilment of the CNB's Inflation Targets 1998-2007, chapter 2, pages 18-34 Czech National Bank, Research Department.
  3. Jiri Bohm & Petr Kral & Branislav Saxa, 2009. "Perception is Always Right: The CNB’s Monetary Policy in the Media," Working Papers 2009/10, Czech National Bank, Research Department.
  4. Jan Filáček & Branislav Saxa, 2012. "Central Bank Forecasts as a Coordination Device: Evidence from the Czech Republic," Czech Economic Review, Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute of Economic Studies, vol. 6(3), pages 244-264, October.
  5. Katerina Smidkova & Aleš Bulíø, 2008. "Hits and Misses: Ten Years of Czech Inflation Targeting (Introduction)," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 58(09-10), pages 398-405, December.

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