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Inflation Targeting and Communication: Should the Public Read Inflation Reports or Tea Leaves?

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Author Info
Ales Bulir
Katerina Smidkova
Viktor Kotlan
David Navratil

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Abstract

Inflation-targeting central banks have a respectable track record at explaining their policy actions and corresponding inflation outturns. Using a simple forward-looking policy rule and an assessment of inflation reports, we provide a new methodology for the empirical evaluation of consistency in central bank communication. We find that the three communication tools—inflation targets, inflation forecasts, and verbal assessments of inflation factors contained in quarterly inflation reports—provided a consistent message in five out of six observations in our 2000–05 sample of Chile, the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Thailand, and Sweden.

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File URL: http://www.cnb.cz/www.cnb.cz/en/research/research_publications/cnb_wp/download/cnbwp_2007_14.pdf
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Publisher Info
Paper provided by Czech National Bank, Research Department in its series Working Papers with number 2007/14.

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Date of creation: Dec 2007
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Handle: RePEc:cnb:wpaper:2007/14

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Related research
Keywords: Emerging markets; forecasting; inflation targeting; monetary policy; transparency.;

Find related papers by JEL classification:
E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Determination of Interest Rates; Term Structure of Interest Rates
E47 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Forecasting and Simulation
E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

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  1. Juraj Antal & Michal Hlavacek & Tomas Holub, 2008. "Basic Characteristics of Inflation Targeting in the Czech Republic," Occasional Publications - Chapters in Edited Volumes, in: Katerina Smidkova (ed.), Evaluation of the Fulfilment of the CNB's Inflation Targets 1998-2007, chapter 2, pages 18-34 Czech National Bank, Research Department. [Downloadable!]
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