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Ireland and Brexit: modelling the impact of deal and no-deal scenarios

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  • Bergin, Adele
  • Economides, Philip
  • Garcia-Rodriguez, Abian
  • Murphy, Gavin

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Suggested Citation

  • Bergin, Adele & Economides, Philip & Garcia-Rodriguez, Abian & Murphy, Gavin, 2019. "Ireland and Brexit: modelling the impact of deal and no-deal scenarios," Quarterly Economic Commentary: Special Articles, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
    • Handle: RePEc:esr:qecsas:2019:spring:bergin
    DOI: /10.26504/qec2019spr_sa_bergin
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    7. Gabriel Felbermayr & Jasmin Gröschl & Marina Steininger, 2022. "Quantifying Brexit: from ex post to ex ante using structural gravity," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 158(2), pages 401-465, May.
    8. Jean Imbs & Isabelle Mejean, 2017. "Trade Elasticities," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 25(2), pages 383-402, May.
    9. Bas Straathof & Gert Jan Linders & Arjan Lejour & Jan Möhlmann, 2008. "The internal market and the Dutch economy: implications for trade and economic growth," CPB Document 168, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
    10. Donal Smith & Christine Arriola & Caitlyn Carrico & Frank van Tongeren, 2018. "The potential economic impact of Brexit on the Netherlands," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 1518, OECD Publishing.
    11. Thomas Sampson, 2017. "Brexit: The Economics of International Disintegration," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 31(4), pages 163-184, Fall.
    12. Wen Chen & Bart Los & Philip McCann & Raquel Ortega‐Argilés & Mark Thissen & Frank van Oort, 2018. "The continental divide? Economic exposure to Brexit in regions and countries on both sides of The Channel," Papers in Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 97(1), pages 25-54, March.
    13. Bergin, Adele & Conroy, Niall & Garcia Rodriguez, Abian & Holland, Dawn & McInerney, Niall & Morgenroth, Edgar & Smith, Donal, 2017. "COSMO: A new COre Structural MOdel for Ireland," Papers WP553, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
    14. Bergin, Adele & Duffy, David & Foley, Daniel & Garcia Rodriguez, Abian & Lawless, Martina & Mc Inerney, Niall & McQuinn, Kieran, 2016. "Ireland’s Economic Outlook: Perspectives and Policy Challenges," Forecasting Report, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), number EO1 edited by Bergin, Adele & Morgenroth, Edgar & McQuinn, Kieran, June.
    15. Erik Marel & Ben Shepherd, 2013. "Services Trade, Regulation and Regional Integration: Evidence from Sectoral Data," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 36(11), pages 1393-1405, November.
    16. Adele Bergin & Abian Garcia-Rodriguez & Edgar L. W. Morgenroth & Donal Smith, 2017. "Modelling the Medium- to Long-Term Potential Macroeconomic Impact of Brexit on Ireland," The Economic and Social Review, Economic and Social Studies, vol. 48(3), pages 305-316.
    17. Bergin, Adele & Kearney, Ide & FitzGerald, John & FitzGerald, John, 2006. "Macroeconomic Impact," Book Chapters, in: Morgenroth, Edgar (ed.),Ex-Ante Evaluation of the Investment Priorities for the National Development Plan 2007-2013, chapter 5, pages 49-74, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
    18. Ebell, Monique & Hurst, Ian & Warren, James, 2016. "Modelling the long-run economic impact of leaving the European Union," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 196-209.
    19. Byrne, Stephen & Rice, Jonathan, 2018. "Non-Tariff Barriers and Goods Trade: a Brexit Impact Analysis," Research Technical Papers 6/RT/18, Central Bank of Ireland.
    20. Christine Arriola & Caitlyn Carrico & David Haugh & Nigel Pain & Elena Rusticelli & Donal Smith & Frank van Tongeren & Ben Westmore, 2018. "The Potential Macroeconomic and Sectoral Consequences of Brexit on Ireland," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 1508, OECD Publishing.
    21. Monique Ebell & James Warren, 2016. "The Long-Term Economic Impact of Leaving the EU," National Institute Economic Review, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, vol. 236(1), pages 121-138, May.
    22. Barrett, Alan & Bergin, Adele & FitzGerald, John & Lambert, Derek & McCoy, Daire & Morgenroth,Edgar & Siedschlag, Iulia & Studnicka, Zuzanna, 2015. "Scoping the Possible Economic Implications of Brexit on Ireland," Research Series, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), number RS48, June.
    23. Janet Ceglowski, 2006. "Does Gravity Matter in a Service Economy?," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 142(2), pages 307-329, July.
    24. Bala Ramasamy & Matthew Yeung, 2010. "The Determinants of Foreign Direct Investment in Services," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 33(4), pages 573-596, April.
    25. Lawless, Martina & Morgenroth, Edgar, 2017. "Ireland’s international trade and transport connections," Papers WP573, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
    26. Rafal Kierzenkowski & Peter Gal & Gabor Fulop & Dorothee Flaig & Frank van Tongeren, 2018. "Sectoral and regional distribution of export shocks: What do two hundred thousand UK firm observations say?," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 1501, OECD Publishing.
    27. Arno Hantzsche & Amit Kara & Garry Young, 2019. "The economic effects of the UK government's proposed Brexit deal," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 42(1), pages 5-20, January.
    28. Olivier Cadot & Julien Gourdon & Frank van Tongeren, 2018. "Estimating Ad Valorem Equivalents of Non-Tariff Measures: Combining Price-Based and Quantity-Based Approaches," OECD Trade Policy Papers 215, OECD Publishing.
    29. Rita Cappariello, 2017. "Brexit: estimating tariff costs for EU countries in a new trade regime with the UK," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 381, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    30. Jean-Marc Fournier & Aurore Domps & Yaëlle Gorin & Xavier Guillet & Délia Morchoisne, 2015. "Implicit Regulatory Barriers in the EU Single Market: New Empirical Evidence from Gravity Models," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 1181, OECD Publishing.
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    Cited by:

    1. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/7q032m5a2c9jhat9rj57h85soo is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Seamus McGuinness & Adele Bergin, 2020. "The political economy of a Northern Ireland border poll," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Cambridge Political Economy Society, vol. 44(4), pages 781-812.
    3. Egan, Paul & Bergin, Adele, 2023. "The impact of government spending on Ireland’s housing and residential market – Targeted vs economy-wide stimulus," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 45(3), pages 552-569.
    4. Egan, Paul & Kenny, Eoin & O'Toole, Conor, 2023. "Interest rate snapback and the impacts on the Irish economy," Papers WP757, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
    5. Michelle Egan, 2019. "EU Single Market(s) after Brexit," Politics and Governance, Cogitatio Press, vol. 7(3), pages 19-29.
    6. Egan, Paul & Kenny, Eoin & McQuinn, Kieran, 2022. "Increasing future housing supply: What are the implications for the Irish economy," Quarterly Economic Commentary: Special Articles, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
    7. Busch, Berthold, 2019. "Brexit: Der Streit um die irische Grenze," IW-Kurzberichte 70/2019, Institut der deutschen Wirtschaft (IW) / German Economic Institute.
    8. Daly, Luke & Lawless, Martina, 2020. "Examination of the Sectoral Overlap of Covid-19 and Brexit Shocks," Papers WP677, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
    9. Ioannis Bournakis & Jen-Chung Mei, 2023. "Embodied and Disembodied Spillovers from FDI: Sectoral Evidence from Ireland," Journal of Industry, Competition and Trade, Springer, vol. 23(1), pages 59-80, June.
    10. Morgenroth, Edgar, 2019. "Brexit Impacts: Opportunities for German-Irish Trade," MPRA Paper 96602, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Martina Lawless, 2020. "Brexit and trade on the Island of Ireland," Revue de l'OFCE, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 0(3), pages 95-119.
    12. Bercholz, Maxime & Bergin, Adele & Callan, Tim & Garcia Rodriguez, Abian & Keane, Claire, 2019. "A micro-macro economic analysis of pension auto-enrolment options," Papers WP640, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).

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