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Long Memory in Volatility. An Investigation on the Central and Eastern European Exchange Rates

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  • Gabriel Bobeica
  • Elena Bojesteanu

Abstract

Understanding the evolution of volatility on the financial markets is essential for the comprehension and for the analysis of risk. This paper regards the topic of persistence of volatility in the exchange rates for four Central and Eastern European countries: Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, and Romania. Persistence in volatility shows how quickly financial markets forget large volatility shocks. The persistence of volatility is addressed as the presence of long-term memory in the second order moment of returns and in absolute returns. The main feature of a long-memory process is that its autocorrelation function decays slower than that of a short memory process, but faster than that of an integrated one. The paper also concerns the implications on risk assessment of detecting long-term memory in the volatility of the exchange rate.

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File URL: http://www.ersj.eu/repec/ers/papers/08_4_p1.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by European Research Studies Journal in its journal European Research Studies Journal.

Volume (Year): XI (2008)
Issue (Month): 4 ()
Pages: 7-18

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Handle: RePEc:ers:journl:v:xi:y:2008:i:4:p:7-18

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Related research

Keywords: long memory; volatility; GARCH models;

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  1. Charemza, Wojciech W. & Syczewska, Ewa M., 1998. "Joint application of the Dickey-Fuller and KPSS tests," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 61(1), pages 17-21, October.
  2. Ding, Zhuanxin & Granger, Clive W. J. & Engle, Robert F., 1993. "A long memory property of stock market returns and a new model," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 83-106, June.
  3. Lo, Andrew W, 1991. "Long-Term Memory in Stock Market Prices," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(5), pages 1279-313, September.
  4. Denis Kwiatkowski & Peter C.B. Phillips & Peter Schmidt, 1991. "Testing the Null Hypothesis of Stationarity Against the Alternative of a Unit Root: How Sure Are We That Economic Time Series Have a Unit Root?," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 979, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  5. Greene, Myron T. & Fielitz, Bruce D., 1977. "Long-term dependence in common stock returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 4(3), pages 339-349, May.
  6. Blake LeBaron & Ryuichi Yamamoto, 2008. "The Impact of Imitation on Long Memory in an Order-Driven Market," Eastern Economic Journal, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 34(4), pages 504-517.
  7. Mandelbrot, Benoit B, 1971. "When Can Price Be Arbitraged Efficiently? A Limit to the Validity of the Random Walk and Martingale Models," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 53(3), pages 225-36, August.
  8. Sowell, Fallaw, 1992. "Maximum likelihood estimation of stationary univariate fractionally integrated time series models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 53(1-3), pages 165-188.
  9. Crato, Nuno & de Lima, Pedro J. F., 1994. "Long-range dependence in the conditional variance of stock returns," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 45(3), pages 281-285.
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