Análisis de cointegración y valores umbrales entre la inflación y el crecimiento económico en México: 1970-2007
AbstractThe aim of this paper is to estimate long run relationships and threshold effects between inflation and economic growth in Mexico. We show the existence of such relationship in a cointegrated vector on Economic Growth (log of real GDP) and Inflation rate finding a corresponding elasticity significantly negative. Moreover, the causal relationship between these two series is studied using a more robust Granger causality test, without finding any directional causality between them. The estimated threshold model suggests 9 percent as the threshold level (i.e., structural break point) of inflation above which inflation significantly slows the Mexican economic growth.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Universidad Autonoma de Nuevo Leon, Facultad de Economia in its journal Ensayos Revista de Economia.
Volume (Year): XXIX (2010)
Issue (Month): 2 (November)
Contact details of provider:
Postal: Avenida Lazaro Cardenas 4600 Ote., Fraccionamiento Residencial Las Torres, C.P. 64930. Monterrey, Nuevo Leon. México.
Phone: +52 (81) 8329 4150
Fax: +52 (81) 8342 2897
Web page: http://www.economia.uanl.mx
More information through EDIRC
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
- O40 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - General
- O42 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Monetary Growth Models
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
- Kwiatkowski, Denis & Phillips, Peter C. B. & Schmidt, Peter & Shin, Yongcheol, 1992.
"Testing the null hypothesis of stationarity against the alternative of a unit root : How sure are we that economic time series have a unit root?,"
Journal of Econometrics,
Elsevier, vol. 54(1-3), pages 159-178.
- Denis Kwiatkowski & Peter C.B. Phillips & Peter Schmidt, 1991. "Testing the Null Hypothesis of Stationarity Against the Alternative of a Unit Root: How Sure Are We That Economic Time Series Have a Unit Root?," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 979, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
- Kwiatkowski, D. & Phillips, P.C.B. & Schmidt, P., 1990. "Testing the Null Hypothesis of Stationarity Against the Alternative of Unit Root : How Sure are we that Economic Time Series have a Unit Root?," Papers 8905, Michigan State - Econometrics and Economic Theory.
- A. Senhadji Semlali & Mohsin S. Khan, 2000.
"Threshold Effects in the Relationship Between inflation and Growth,"
IMF Working Papers
00/110, International Monetary Fund.
- By Mohsin S. Khan & Abdelhak S. Senhadji, 2001. "Threshold Effects in the Relationship Between Inflation and Growth," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 48(1), pages 1.
- McCallum, Bennett T., 1984.
"On low-frequency estimates of long-run relationships in macroeconomics,"
Journal of Monetary Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 3-14, July.
- Bennett T. McCallum, 1984. "On Low-Frequency Estimates of "Long-Run" Relationships in Macro- economics," NBER Working Papers 1162, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Elisabeth Huybens & Bruce D. Smith, 1996.
"Financial Market Frictions, Monetary Policy and Capital Accumulation in a Small Open Economy,"
9608, Centro de Investigacion Economica, ITAM.
- Huybens, Elisabeth & Smith, Bruce D., 1998. "Financial Market Frictions, Monetary Policy, and Capital Accumulation in a Small Open Economy," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 81(2), pages 353-400, August.
- N. Gregory Mankiw & David Romer & David N. Weil, 1992.
"A Contribution to the Empirics of Economic Growth,"
NBER Working Papers
3541, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Toda, Hiro Y. & Yamamoto, Taku, 1995. "Statistical inference in vector autoregressions with possibly integrated processes," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 66(1-2), pages 225-250.
- Dickey, David A & Fuller, Wayne A, 1981. "Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(4), pages 1057-72, June.
- Javier Andres & Ignacio Hernando, 1997.
"Does Inflation Harm Economic Growth? Evidence for the OECD,"
NBER Working Papers
6062, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Javier Andrés & Ignacio Hernando, 1999. "Does Inflation Harm Economic Growth? Evidence from the OECD," NBER Chapters, in: The Costs and Benefits of Price Stability, pages 315-348 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Atish R. Ghosh & Steven Phillips, 1998. "Inflation, Disinflation, and Growth," IMF Working Papers 98/68, International Monetary Fund.
- T. W. Swan, 1956. "ECONOMIC GROWTH and CAPITAL ACCUMULATION," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 32(2), pages 334-361, November.
- Phillips, P.C.B., 1986.
"Understanding spurious regressions in econometrics,"
Journal of Econometrics,
Elsevier, vol. 33(3), pages 311-340, December.
- Peter C.B. Phillips, 1985. "Understanding Spurious Regressions in Econometrics," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 757, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
- Hansen, B.E., 1991.
"Inference when a Nuisance Parameter is Not Identified Under the Null Hypothesis,"
RCER Working Papers
296, University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER).
- Hansen, Bruce E, 1996. "Inference When a Nuisance Parameter Is Not Identified under the Null Hypothesis," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 64(2), pages 413-30, March.
- Ball, Laurence, 1992.
"Why does high inflation raise inflation uncertainty?,"
Journal of Monetary Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 371-388, June.
- Laurence Ball, 1990. "Why Does High Inflation Raise Inflation Uncertainty?," NBER Working Papers 3224, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- De Gregorio, Jose, 1996. "Inflation, growth, and central banks : theory and evidence," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1575, The World Bank.
- Michael Sarel, 1995. "Nonlinear Effects of Inflation on Economic Growth," IMF Working Papers 95/56, International Monetary Fund.
- Granger, C. W. J., 1988. "Some recent development in a concept of causality," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 39(1-2), pages 199-211.
- Grier, Robin & Grier, Kevin B., 2006. "On the real effects of inflation and inflation uncertainty in Mexico," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(2), pages 478-500, August.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Dora María Vega Facio).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.