IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/ere/journl/vxxixy2010i2p77-98.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Análisis de cointegración y valores umbrales entre la inflación y el crecimiento económico en México: 1970-2007

Author

Listed:
  • W. Adrián Risso

    (Department of Economics, University of Siena)

  • Edgar J. Sánchez Carrera

    (Department of Economics, University of Siena)

Abstract

The aim of this paper is to estimate long run relationships and threshold effects between inflation and economic growth in Mexico. We show the existence of such relationship in a cointegrated vector on Economic Growth (log of real GDP) and Inflation rate finding a corresponding elasticity significantly negative. Moreover, the causal relationship between these two series is studied using a more robust Granger causality test, without finding any directional causality between them. The estimated threshold model suggests 9 percent as the threshold level (i.e., structural break point) of inflation above which inflation significantly slows the Mexican economic growth.

Suggested Citation

  • W. Adrián Risso & Edgar J. Sánchez Carrera, 2010. "Análisis de cointegración y valores umbrales entre la inflación y el crecimiento económico en México: 1970-2007," Ensayos Revista de Economia, Universidad Autonoma de Nuevo Leon, Facultad de Economia, vol. 0(2), pages 77-98, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:ere:journl:v:xxix:y:2010:i:2:p:77-98
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.economia.uanl.mx/revistaensayos/xxix/2/Risso-Sanchez-Analisis-de-cointegracion.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Robert M. Solow, 1956. "A Contribution to the Theory of Economic Growth," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 70(1), pages 65-94.
    2. Kwiatkowski, Denis & Phillips, Peter C. B. & Schmidt, Peter & Shin, Yongcheol, 1992. "Testing the null hypothesis of stationarity against the alternative of a unit root : How sure are we that economic time series have a unit root?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 54(1-3), pages 159-178.
    3. Dickey, David A & Fuller, Wayne A, 1981. "Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(4), pages 1057-1072, June.
    4. Ball, Laurence, 1992. "Why does high inflation raise inflation uncertainty?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 371-388, June.
    5. Mr. Atish R. Ghosh & Mr. Steven T Phillips, 1998. "Inflation, Disinflation, and Growth," IMF Working Papers 1998/068, International Monetary Fund.
    6. N. Gregory Mankiw & David Romer & David N. Weil, 1992. "A Contribution to the Empirics of Economic Growth," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 107(2), pages 407-437.
    7. De Gregorio, Jose, 1996. "Inflation, growth, and central banks : theory and evidence," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1575, The World Bank.
    8. T. W. Swan, 1956. "ECONOMIC GROWTH and CAPITAL ACCUMULATION," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 32(2), pages 334-361, November.
    9. Phillips, P.C.B., 1986. "Understanding spurious regressions in econometrics," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 33(3), pages 311-340, December.
    10. Huybens, Elisabeth & Smith, Bruce D., 1998. "Financial Market Frictions, Monetary Policy, and Capital Accumulation in a Small Open Economy," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 81(2), pages 353-400, August.
    11. Granger, C. W. J., 1988. "Some recent development in a concept of causality," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 39(1-2), pages 199-211.
    12. Grier, Robin & Grier, Kevin B., 2006. "On the real effects of inflation and inflation uncertainty in Mexico," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(2), pages 478-500, August.
    13. Toda, Hiro Y. & Yamamoto, Taku, 1995. "Statistical inference in vector autoregressions with possibly integrated processes," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 66(1-2), pages 225-250.
    14. Hansen, Bruce E, 1996. "Inference When a Nuisance Parameter Is Not Identified under the Null Hypothesis," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 64(2), pages 413-430, March.
    15. Stanley Fischer & Franco Modigliani, 1978. "Towards an understanding of the real effects and costs of inflation," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 114(4), pages 810-833, December.
    16. McCallum, Bennett T., 1984. "On low-frequency estimates of long-run relationships in macroeconomics," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 3-14, July.
    17. By Mohsin S. Khan & Abdelhak S. Senhadji, 2001. "Threshold Effects in the Relationship Between Inflation and Growth," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 48(1), pages 1-1.
    18. Mr. Michael Sarel, 1995. "Nonlinear Effects of Inflationon Economic Growth," IMF Working Papers 1995/056, International Monetary Fund.
    19. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
    20. Javier Andrés & Ignacio Hernando, 1999. "Does Inflation Harm Economic Growth? Evidence from the OECD," NBER Chapters, in: The Costs and Benefits of Price Stability, pages 315-348, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Kyriakos Emmanouilidis & Christos Karpetis, 2020. "The Defense–Growth Nexus: A Review of Time Series Methods and Empirical Results," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(1), pages 86-104, January.
    2. Tang, Chor Foon & Tan, Bee Wah, 2014. "A revalidation of the savings–growth nexus in Pakistan," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 370-377.
    3. Kevin S. Nell & Maria M. De Mello, 2019. "The interdependence between the saving rate and technology across regimes: evidence from South Africa," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 56(1), pages 269-300, January.
    4. Baharumshah, Ahmad Zubaidi & Slesman, Ly & Wohar, Mark E., 2016. "Inflation, inflation uncertainty, and economic growth in emerging and developing countries: Panel data evidence," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 40(4), pages 638-657.
    5. Panagiotis Pegkas & Constantinos Tsamadias, 2017. "Are There Separate Effects of Male and Female Higher Education on Economic Growth? Evidence from Greece," Journal of the Knowledge Economy, Springer;Portland International Center for Management of Engineering and Technology (PICMET), vol. 8(1), pages 279-293, March.
    6. Neeraj, & Panigrahi, Prasanta K., 2017. "Causality and correlations between BSE and NYSE indexes: A Janus faced relationship," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 481(C), pages 284-313.
    7. David Greasley & Les Oxley, 2010. "Cliometrics And Time Series Econometrics: Some Theory And Applications," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 24(5), pages 970-1042, December.
    8. Singh, Tarlok, 2010. "Does domestic saving cause economic growth? A time-series evidence from India," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 231-253, March.
    9. Hasanov, Fakhri J. & Aliyev, Ruslan & Taskin, Dilvin & Suleymanov, Elchin, 2023. "Oil rents and non-oil economic growth in CIS oil exporters. The role of financial development," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).
    10. Palakiyèm Kpemoua, 2016. "Levels Of Education And Economic Performances Of Togo [Niveaux D’Education Et Performances Economiques Du Togo]," Working Papers halshs-01506650, HAL.
    11. Md Shahiduzzaman & Allan Layton & Khorshed Alam, 2015. "On the contribution of information and communication technology to productivity growth in Australia," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 48(3), pages 281-304, November.
    12. John D. Levendis, 2018. "Time Series Econometrics," Springer Texts in Business and Economics, Springer, number 978-3-319-98282-3, August.
    13. P Pegkas & C Tsamadias, 2016. "How important are foreign and domestic investments, exports and human capital for Greece's economic growth?," Economic Issues Journal Articles, Economic Issues, vol. 21(1), pages 23-45, March.
    14. Kevin S. Nell, 2015. "The Complementary Nature Between Technological Progress and Capital Accumulation in India's Long-Run Growth Transitions," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 66(4), pages 565-605, November.
    15. David EA Giles, 2005. "Output Convergence and International Trade: Time-Series and Fuzzy Clustering Evidence for New Zealand and her Trading Partners, 1950 - 1992," The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(1), pages 93-114.
    16. Naser, Hanan, 2014. "On the cointegration and causality between Oil market, Nuclear Energy Consumption, and Economic Growth: Evidence from Developed Countries," MPRA Paper 65252, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 25 Mar 2015.
    17. Kaminski, Jermain & Hopp, Christian & Tykvová, Tereza, 2019. "New technology assessment in entrepreneurial financing – Does crowdfunding predict venture capital investments?," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 139(C), pages 287-302.
    18. Dilip Dutta & Nasiruddin Ahmed, 2004. "Trade liberalization and industrial growth in Pakistan: a cointegration analysis," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(13), pages 1421-1429.
    19. Neeraj & Prasanta K. Panigrahi, 2016. "Causality and Correlations between BSE and NYSE indexes: A Janus Faced Relationship," Papers 1608.07796, arXiv.org.
    20. Panagiotis PEGKAS & Constantinos TSAMADIAS, 2015. "Does Formal Education At All Levels Cause Economic Growth? Evidence From Greece," Review of Economic and Business Studies, Alexandru Ioan Cuza University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, issue 15, pages 9-32, June.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    cointegration; economic growth; inflation; structural break;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • O40 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - General
    • O42 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Monetary Growth Models

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ere:journl:v:xxix:y:2010:i:2:p:77-98. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Dora María Vega Facio (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/feualmx.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.