Violent Crime and Perceived Deterrence: An Empirical Approach using the Offending Crime and Justice Survey

This paper provides an econometric assessment of the deterrence model, with a specific focus on violent crime in England and Wales. It finds that beliefs about the probability of arrest are substantially lower than official arrests rates, but when adjusting for non-reporting by victims, the perceived risk of arrest and actual arrest rate are very similar. Further, no empirical evidence is found to the effect that perception of the probability of arrest differ between criminals and non-criminals. Perceptions about general perceived risk of arrest are not found to be related to an individual's own criminal and arrest history. Instead, an individual's beliefs about the perceived probability of arrest are largely affected by neighbourhood conditions and victimisation. The link between perceptions and criminal behaviour is also examined, but the empirical evidence is not in line with the basic predictions of the economic theory of crime.