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Reconciling Consumer Confidence and Permanent Income Consumption

Author

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  • K. H. McIntyre

    (McDaniel College)

Abstract

The forecasting power of consumer confidence indexes for consumption spending runs counter to the predictions of the permanent income hypothesis (PIH). This paper resolves this discrepancy by developing a “confidence augmented” permanent income hypothesis (CAPIH). While it does not radically alter the estimated extent of permanent income consumption, the CAPIH model predicts a significantly smaller intertemporal elasticity of substitution than a standard PIH model. In addition, the results are largely invariant to the measure of consumer confidence used and the choice of instrumental variables.

Suggested Citation

  • K. H. McIntyre, 2007. "Reconciling Consumer Confidence and Permanent Income Consumption," Eastern Economic Journal, Eastern Economic Association, vol. 33(2), pages 257-275, Spring.
    • Handle: RePEc:eej:eeconj:v:33:y:2007:i:2:p:257-275
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    File URL: http://web.holycross.edu/RePEc/eej/Archive/Volume33/V33N2P257_275.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Abderrezak, Ali, 1997. "Consumer expectations and cyclical durations," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(4), pages 843-857.
    2. Acemoglu, Daron & Scott, Andrew, 1994. "Consumer Confidence and Rational Expectations: Are Agents' Beliefs Consistent with the Theory?," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 104(422), pages 1-19, January.
    3. Baxter, Marianne, 1996. "Are Consumer Durables Important for Business Cycles?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 78(1), pages 147-155, February.
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    Cited by:

    1. Douglas Lamdin, 2008. "Does Consumer Sentiment Foretell Revolving Credit Use?," Journal of Family and Economic Issues, Springer, vol. 29(2), pages 279-288, June.
    2. Bahram Adrangi & Joseph Macri, 2011. "Consumer Confidence and Aggregate Consumption Expenditures in the United States," Review of Economics & Finance, Better Advances Press, Canada, vol. 1, pages 1-18, February.
    3. Tomas Havranek & Anna Sokolova, 2016. "Do Consumers Really Follow a Rule of Thumb? Three Thousand Estimates from 130 Studies Say "Probably Not"," Working Papers 2016/08, Czech National Bank.
    4. Giancarlo Bruno, 2014. "Consumer confidence and consumption forecast: a non-parametric approach," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 41(1), pages 37-52, February.
    5. Huijian Han & Zhiming Li & Zongwei Li, 2023. "Using Machine Learning Methods to Predict Consumer Confidence from Search Engine Data," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(4), pages 1-12, February.

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