IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/transe/v110y2018icp137-146.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Dynamic discrete choice model for railway ticket cancellation and exchange decisions

Author

Listed:
  • Cirillo, Cinzia
  • Bastin, Fabian
  • Hetrakul, Pratt

Abstract

The increasing use of internet as a major ticket distribution channel has resulted in passengers becoming more strategic to fare policy. This potentially induces passengers to book the ticket well in advance in order to obtain a lower fare ticket, and later adjust their ticket when they are sure about trip scheduling. This is especially true in flexible refund markets where ticket cancellation and exchange behavior has been recognized as having major impacts on revenues. In this paper, we propose an inter-temporal choice model of ticket cancellation and exchange for railway passengers where customers are assumed to be forward looking agents. A dynamic discrete choice model (DDCM) is applied to predict the timing in which ticket exchange or cancellation occurs in response to fare and trip schedule uncertainty. The problem is formulated as an optimal stopping problem, and a two steps look-ahead policy is adopted to approximate the dynamic programming problem. The approach is applied to real ticket reservation data for intercity railway trips. Estimations results indicate that the DDCM provides more intuitive results when compared to multinomial logit (MNL) models. In addition, validation results show that DDCM has better prediction capability than MNL. The approach developed here in the context of exchange and refund policies for railway revenue management can be extended and applied to other industries that operate under flexible refund policies.

Suggested Citation

  • Cirillo, Cinzia & Bastin, Fabian & Hetrakul, Pratt, 2018. "Dynamic discrete choice model for railway ticket cancellation and exchange decisions," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 110(C), pages 137-146.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:transe:v:110:y:2018:i:c:p:137-146
    DOI: 10.1016/j.tre.2017.12.004
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1366554517307263
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.tre.2017.12.004?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Rust, John, 1987. "Optimal Replacement of GMC Bus Engines: An Empirical Model of Harold Zurcher," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(5), pages 999-1033, September.
    2. Guillermo Gallego & Özge Şahin, 2010. "Revenue Management with Partially Refundable Fares," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 58(4-part-1), pages 817-833, August.
    3. Oded Koenigsberg & Eitan Muller & Naufel Vilcassim, 2008. "easyJet® pricing strategy: Should low-fare airlines offer last-minute deals?," Quantitative Marketing and Economics (QME), Springer, vol. 6(3), pages 279-297, September.
    4. Qian Liu & Garrett J. van Ryzin, 2008. "Strategic Capacity Rationing to Induce Early Purchases," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 54(6), pages 1115-1131, June.
    5. Xuanming Su, 2007. "Intertemporal Pricing with Strategic Customer Behavior," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 53(5), pages 726-741, May.
    6. Miller, Robert A, 1984. "Job Matching and Occupational Choice," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 92(6), pages 1086-1120, December.
    7. Guillermo Gallego & Robert Phillips, 2004. "Revenue Management of Flexible Products," Manufacturing & Service Operations Management, INFORMS, vol. 6(4), pages 321-337, January.
    8. Pakes, Ariel S, 1986. "Patents as Options: Some Estimates of the Value of Holding European Patent Stocks," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 54(4), pages 755-784, July.
    9. James D. Dana Jr., 1998. "Advance-Purchase Discounts and Price Discrimination in Competitive Markets," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 106(2), pages 395-422, April.
    10. Michael Landsberger & Isaac Meilijson, 1985. "Intertemporal Price Discrimination and Sales Strategy under Incomplete Information," RAND Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 16(3), pages 424-430, Autumn.
    11. David Besanko & Wayne L. Winston, 1990. "Optimal Price Skimming by a Monopolist Facing Rational Consumers," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 36(5), pages 555-567, May.
    12. Yossi Aviv & Amit Pazgal, 2008. "Optimal Pricing of Seasonal Products in the Presence of Forward-Looking Consumers," Manufacturing & Service Operations Management, INFORMS, vol. 10(3), pages 339-359, December.
    13. Man Yu & Hyun-Soo Ahn & Roman Kapuscinski, 2015. "Rationing Capacity in Advance Selling to Signal Quality," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 61(3), pages 560-577, March.
    14. Wolpin, Kenneth I, 1984. "An Estimable Dynamic Stochastic Model of Fertility and Child Mortality," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 92(5), pages 852-874, October.
    15. Cinzia Cirillo & Renting Xu & Fabian Bastin, 2016. "A Dynamic Formulation for Car Ownership Modeling," Transportation Science, INFORMS, vol. 50(1), pages 322-335, February.
    16. I. P. L. Png, 1989. "Reservations: Customer Insurance in the Marketing of Capacity," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 8(3), pages 248-264.
    17. Gale, Ian L. & Holmes, Thomas J., 1992. "The efficiency of advance-purchase discounts in the presence of aggregate demand uncertainty," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 10(3), pages 413-437, September.
    18. Jay Graham, R. & Garrow, Laurie A. & Leonard, John D., 2010. "Business travelers’ ticketing, refund, and exchange behavior," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 16(4), pages 196-201.
    19. Jinhong Xie & Steven M. Shugan, 2001. "Electronic Tickets, Smart Cards, and Online Prepayments: When and How to Advance Sell," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 20(3), pages 219-243, June.
    20. Staffan Ringbom & Oz Shy, 2004. "Advance booking, cancellations, and partial refunds," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 13(1), pages 1-7.
    21. Nancy L. Stokey, 1979. "Intertemporal Price Discrimination," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 93(3), pages 355-371.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Hancock, Thomas O. & Hess, Stephane & Marley, A.A.J. & Choudhury, Charisma F., 2021. "An accumulation of preference: Two alternative dynamic models for understanding transport choices," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 149(C), pages 250-282.
    2. Dong, Han & Cirillo, Cinzia, 2020. "Space-time dynamics: A modeling approach for commuting departure time on linked datasets," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).
    3. Li, Xiaowei & Tang, Junqing & Hu, Xiaojiao & Wang, Wei, 2020. "Assessing intercity multimodal choice behavior in a Touristy City: A factor analysis," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 86(C).
    4. Song, Yuchen & Li, Dawei & Liu, Dongjie & Cao, Qi & Chen, Junlan & Ren, Gang & Tang, Xiaoyong, 2022. "Modeling activity-travel behavior under a dynamic discrete choice framework with unobserved heterogeneity," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 167(C).
    5. Alavi Fard, Farzad & Sy, Malick & Ivanov, Dmitry, 2019. "Optimal overbooking strategies in the airlines using dynamic programming approach in continuous time," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 128(C), pages 384-399.
    6. Hackbarth, André & Madlener, Reinhard, 2018. "Combined Vehicle Type and Fuel Type Choices of Private Households: An Empirical Analysis for Germany," FCN Working Papers 17/2018, E.ON Energy Research Center, Future Energy Consumer Needs and Behavior (FCN), revised May 2019.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Guillermo Gallego & Özge Şahin, 2010. "Revenue Management with Partially Refundable Fares," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 58(4-part-1), pages 817-833, August.
    2. Gérard P. P. Cachon & Pnina Feldman, 2017. "Is Advance Selling Desirable with Competition?," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 36(2), pages 214-231, March.
    3. Xuanming Su, 2010. "Optimal Pricing with Speculators and Strategic Consumers," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 56(1), pages 25-40, January.
    4. Gonca P. Soysal & Lakshman Krishnamurthi, 2012. "Demand Dynamics in the Seasonal Goods Industry: An Empirical Analysis," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 31(2), pages 293-316, March.
    5. Jue Wang & Yuri Levin & Mikhail Nediak, 2019. "Selling Passes to Strategic Customers," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 68(4), pages 1095-1115, July.
    6. Li Li & Li Jiang, 2022. "How should firms adapt pricing strategies when consumers are time‐inconsistent?," Production and Operations Management, Production and Operations Management Society, vol. 31(9), pages 3457-3473, September.
    7. Man Yu & Hyun-Soo Ahn & Roman Kapuscinski, 2015. "Rationing Capacity in Advance Selling to Signal Quality," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 61(3), pages 560-577, March.
    8. Xuanming Su & Fuqiang Zhang, 2009. "On the Value of Commitment and Availability Guarantees When Selling to Strategic Consumers," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 55(5), pages 713-726, May.
    9. Yiangos Papanastasiou & Nicos Savva, 2017. "Dynamic Pricing in the Presence of Social Learning and Strategic Consumers," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 63(4), pages 919-939, April.
    10. Xuanming Su, 2009. "Consumer Returns Policies and Supply Chain Performance," Manufacturing & Service Operations Management, INFORMS, vol. 11(4), pages 595-612, March.
    11. Vincent Mak & Amnon Rapoport & Eyran J. Gisches & Jiaojie Han, 2014. "Purchasing Scarce Products Under Dynamic Pricing: An Experimental Investigation," Manufacturing & Service Operations Management, INFORMS, vol. 16(3), pages 425-438, July.
    12. Christian Borgs & Ozan Candogan & Jennifer Chayes & Ilan Lobel & Hamid Nazerzadeh, 2014. "Optimal Multiperiod Pricing with Service Guarantees," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 60(7), pages 1792-1811, July.
    13. Urena Serulle, Nayel & Cirillo, Cinzia, 2017. "The optimal time to evacuate: A behavioral dynamic model on Louisiana resident data," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 106(C), pages 447-463.
    14. Özalp Özer & Yanchong Zheng, 2016. "Markdown or Everyday Low Price? The Role of Behavioral Motives," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 62(2), pages 326-346, February.
    15. Arian Aflaki & Pnina Feldman & Robert Swinney, 2019. "Becoming Strategic: Endogenous Consumer Time Preferences and Multiperiod Pricing," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 68(4), pages 1116-1131, July.
    16. Yossi Aviv & Mike Mingcheng Wei & Fuqiang Zhang, 2019. "Responsive Pricing of Fashion Products: The Effects of Demand Learning and Strategic Consumer Behavior," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 65(7), pages 2982-3000, July.
    17. Negin Golrezaei & Hamid Nazerzadeh & Ramandeep Randhawa, 2020. "Dynamic Pricing for Heterogeneous Time-Sensitive Customers," Manufacturing & Service Operations Management, INFORMS, vol. 22(3), pages 562-581, May.
    18. Alderighi, Marco & Gaggero, Alberto A. & Piga, Claudio A., 2022. "Hidden prices with fixed inventory: Evidence from the airline industry," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 157(C), pages 42-61.
    19. Yu, Yugang & Liu, Jie & Han, Xiaoya & Chen, Can, 2017. "Optimal decisions for sellers considering valuation bias and strategic consumer reactions," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 259(2), pages 599-613.
    20. Dai Yao & Chuang Tang & Junhong Chu, 2023. "A Dynamic Model of Owner Acceptance in Peer-to-Peer Sharing Markets," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 42(1), pages 166-188, January.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:transe:v:110:y:2018:i:c:p:137-146. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/wps/find/journaldescription.cws_home/600244/description#description .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.