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Working from home and its implications for strategic transport modelling based on the early days of the COVID-19 pandemic

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  • Hensher, David A.
  • Beck, Matthew J.
  • Wei, Edward

Abstract

The COVID-19 pandemic has changed the way we go about our daily lives in ways that are unlikely to return to the pre-COVID-19 levels. A key feature of the COVID-19 era is likely to be a rethink of the way we work and the implications this may have on commuting activity. Working from home (WFH) has been the ‘new normal’ during the period of lockdown, except for essential services that require commuting. In recognition of the new normal as represented by an increasing amount of WFH, this paper develops a model to identify the incidence of WFH and what impact this could have on the amount of weekly one-way commuting trips by car and public transport. Using Wave 1 of an ongoing data collection effort done at the height of the restrictions in March and April 2020 in Australia, we develop a number of days WFH ordered logit model and link it to a zero-inflated Poisson (ZIP) regression model for the number of weekly one-way commuting trips by car and public transport. Scenario analysis is undertaken to highlight the way in which WFH might change the amount of commuting activity when restrictions are relaxed to enable changing patterns of WFH and commuting. The findings will provide one reference point as we continue to undertake similar analysis at different points through time during the pandemic and after when restrictions are effectively removed.

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  • Hensher, David A. & Beck, Matthew J. & Wei, Edward, 2021. "Working from home and its implications for strategic transport modelling based on the early days of the COVID-19 pandemic," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 148(C), pages 64-78.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:transa:v:148:y:2021:i:c:p:64-78
    DOI: 10.1016/j.tra.2021.03.027
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    7. Balbontin, Camila & Hensher, David A. & Beck, Matthew J. & Giesen, Ricardo & Basnak, Paul & Vallejo-Borda, Jose Agustin & Venter, Christoffel, 2021. "Impact of COVID-19 on the number of days working from home and commuting travel: A cross-cultural comparison between Australia, South America and South Africa," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 96(C).
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    9. Nie, Qifan & Qian, Xinwu & Guo, Shuocheng & Jones, Steven & Doustmohammadi, Mehrnaz & Anderson, Michael D., 2022. "Impact of COVID-19 on paratransit operators and riders: A case study of central Alabama," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 161(C), pages 48-67.
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    11. Tahlyan, Divyakant & Said, Maher & Mahmassani, Hani & Stathopoulos, Amanda & Walker, Joan & Shaheen, Susan, 2022. "For whom did telework not work during the Pandemic? understanding the factors impacting telework satisfaction in the US using a multiple indicator multiple cause (MIMIC) model," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 155(C), pages 387-402.
    12. Ng, Peggy M.L. & Lit, Kam Kong & Cheung, Cherry T.Y., 2022. "Remote work as a new normal? The technology-organization-environment (TOE) context," Technology in Society, Elsevier, vol. 70(C).
    13. Chen, Tiantian & Fu, Xiaowen & Hensher, David A. & Li, Zhi-Chun & Sze, N.N., 2022. "Air travel choice, online meeting and passenger heterogeneity – An international study on travellers’ preference during a pandemic," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 165(C), pages 439-453.
    14. De Borger, Bruno & Proost, Stef, 2022. "Covid-19 and optimal urban transport policy," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 163(C), pages 20-42.
    15. Caulfield, Brian & Charly, Anna, 2022. "Examining the potential environmental and travel time saved benefits of remote working hubs," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 127(C), pages 139-147.
    16. Riccardo Ceccato & Riccardo Rossi & Massimiliano Gastaldi, 2021. "Travel Demand Prediction during COVID-19 Pandemic: Educational and Working Trips at the University of Padova," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(12), pages 1-20, June.
    17. Zhou, Kaile & Hu, Dingding & Li, Fangyi, 2022. "Impact of COVID-19 on private driving behavior: Evidence from electric vehicle charging data," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 125(C), pages 164-178.
    18. Asmussen, Katherine E. & Mondal, Aupal & Bhat, Chandra R. & Pendyala, Ram M., 2023. "On modeling future workplace location decisions: An analysis of Texas employees," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 172(C).
    19. Kaplan, Marcella & Hotle, Susan & Heaslip, Kevin, 2023. "How has COVID-19 impacted customer perceptions and demand for delivery services: An exploratory analysis," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 134(C), pages 217-230.
    20. Xi, Haoning & Li, Qin & Hensher, David A. & Nelson, John D. & Ho, Chinh, 2023. "Quantifying the impact of COVID-19 on travel behavior in different socio-economic segments," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 136(C), pages 98-112.
    21. Mohammadjavad Javadinasr & Tassio B. Magassy & Ehsan Rahimi & Motahare & Mohammadi & Amir Davatgari & Abolfazl & Mohammadian & Deborah Salon & Matthew Wigginton Bhagat-Conway & Rishabh Singh Chauhan &, 2021. "The Enduring Effects of COVID-19 on Travel Behavior in the United States: A Panel Study on Observed and Expected Changes in Telecommuting, Mode Choice, Online Shopping and Air Travel," Papers 2109.07988, arXiv.org.
    22. Hensher, David A. & Beck, Matthew J. & Balbontin, Camila, 2023. "Working from home 22 months on from the beginning of COVID-19: What have we learned for the future provision of transport services?," Research in Transportation Economics, Elsevier, vol. 98(C).

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