IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/touman/v33y2012i1p126-132.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Analyzing tourists’ length of stay at destinations with survival models: A constructive critique based on a case study

Author

Listed:
  • Thrane, Christer

Abstract

The statistical modeling of tourists’ length of stay at destinations is a topic that recently has received much attention from tourism scholars. In this regard, so-called “survival models” have been introduced as a means of studying how a set of independent variables explain variation in the number of days tourists spend at destinations. This paper provides a critical look at these studies. There are two main findings. (1) The various justifications offered for favoring the survival models over the traditional OLS regression do not hold up under closer scrutiny. (2) An empirical study shows that the OLS regression model describes the association between a set of independent variables and length of stay at least as effectively as a battery of survival models. In line with the principle of parsimony it is concluded that future studies on tourists’ length of stay should abandon survival models if they are conducted along similar lines as the ones to date.

Suggested Citation

  • Thrane, Christer, 2012. "Analyzing tourists’ length of stay at destinations with survival models: A constructive critique based on a case study," Tourism Management, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 126-132.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:touman:v:33:y:2012:i:1:p:126-132
    DOI: 10.1016/j.tourman.2011.02.011
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0261517711000550
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.tourman.2011.02.011?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Luiz Pinto Machado, 2010. "Does Destination Image Influence the Length of Stay in a Tourism Destination?," Tourism Economics, , vol. 16(2), pages 443-456, June.
    2. Frederick J. Boehmke & Daniel S. Morey & Megan Shannon, 2006. "Selection Bias and Continuous‐Time Duration Models: Consequences and a Proposed Solution," American Journal of Political Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 50(1), pages 192-207, January.
    3. Serguei Kaniovski & Michael Peneder & Egon Smeral, 2008. "Determinants of Firm Survival in the Austrian Accommodation Sector," Tourism Economics, , vol. 14(3), pages 527-543, September.
    4. Barros, Carlos Pestana & Butler, Richard & Correia, Antónia, 2010. "The length of stay of golf tourism: A survival analysis," Tourism Management, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 13-21.
    5. António Gomes de Menezes & Ana Moniz & José Cabral Vieira, 2008. "The Determinants of Length of Stay of Tourists in the Azores," Tourism Economics, , vol. 14(1), pages 205-222, March.
    6. Aliza Fleischer & Judith Rivlin (Byk), 2009. "Quality, Quantity and Duration Decisions in Household Demand for Vacations," Tourism Economics, , vol. 15(3), pages 513-530, September.
    7. Heckman, James, 2013. "Sample selection bias as a specification error," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 31(3), pages 129-137.
    8. Boehmke, Frederick J., 2006. "The Influence of Unobserved Factors on Position Timing and Content in the NAFTA Vote," Political Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 14(4), pages 421-438, October.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Aguilar, Mª. Isabel & Díaz, Bárbara, 2019. "Length of stay of international tourists in Spain: A parametric survival analysis," Annals of Tourism Research, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    2. Juan Gabriel Brida & Marta Meleddu & Manuela Pulina, 2013. "Factors Influencing Length of Stay of Cultural Tourists," Tourism Economics, , vol. 19(6), pages 1273-1292, December.
    3. Aaron Gutiérrez & Daniel Miravet & Òscar Saladié & Salvador Anton Clavé, 2020. "High-speed rail, tourists’ destination choice and length of stay: A survival model analysis," Tourism Economics, , vol. 26(4), pages 578-597, June.
    4. Gómez-Déniz, E. & Pérez-Rodríguez, J.V., 2019. "Modelling bimodality of length of tourist stay," Annals of Tourism Research, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 131-151.
    5. Christer Thrane, 2016. "Modelling tourists’ length of stay," Tourism Economics, , vol. 22(6), pages 1352-1366, December.
    6. Jorge V Pérez-Rodríguez & Francisco Ledesma-Rodríguez, 2021. "Unconditional quantile regression and tourism expenditure: The case of the Canary Islands," Tourism Economics, , vol. 27(4), pages 626-648, June.
    7. Andrea Pellegrini & Stefano Scagnolari, 2021. "The relationship between length of stay and land transportation mode in the tourism sector: A discrete–continuous framework applied to Swiss data," Tourism Economics, , vol. 27(1), pages 243-259, February.
    8. Jackman, Mahalia & Lorde, Troy & Naitram, Simon & Greenaway, Tori, 2020. "Distance matters: the impact of physical and relative distance on pleasure tourists' length of stay in Barbados," Annals of Tourism Research, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
    9. Filipe B. Caires & Hugo Reis & Paulo M. M. Rodrigues, 2023. "Survival of the fittest: tourism exposure and firm survival," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 55(60), pages 7150-7177, December.
    10. Gómez–Déniz, E. & Pérez–Rodríguez, J.V., 2019. "Modelling distribution of aggregate expenditure on tourism," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 293-308.
    11. Glauber Eduardo de Oliveira Santos, 2016. "An efficient method for modelling tourists’ length of stay," Tourism Economics, , vol. 22(6), pages 1367-1379, December.
    12. Ashrafi Tannaz Alizadeh & Myrland Øystein, 2017. "Determinants of trip duration for international tourists in Norway; a parametric survival analysis," European Journal of Tourism, Hospitality and Recreation, Sciendo, vol. 8(1), pages 75-86, May.
    13. Paz Rico Belda & Bernardí Cabrer-Borrás, 2021. "Size and survival of the hospitality industry: The case of Spain," Tourism Economics, , vol. 27(5), pages 933-951, August.
    14. Alén, Elisa & Nicolau, Juan Luis & Losada, Nieves & Domínguez, Trinidad, 2014. "Determinant factors of senior tourists’ length of stay," Annals of Tourism Research, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 19-32.
    15. Antónia Correia & Jaime Serra & Andrés Artal-Tur, 2017. "Steady tourists’ relationship with a mature destination," Tourism Economics, , vol. 23(4), pages 803-815, June.
    16. Ferrer-Rosell, Berta & Martínez-Garcia, Esther & Coenders, Germà, 2014. "Package and no-frills air carriers as moderators of length of stay," Tourism Management, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 114-122.
    17. Thrane, Christer, 2016. "Students' summer tourism: Determinants of length of stay (LOS)," Tourism Management, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 178-184.
    18. Yang, Jingjing & Ryan, Chris & Zhang, Lingyun, 2013. "Ethnic minority tourism in China – Han perspectives of Tuva figures in a landscape," Tourism Management, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 45-56.
    19. Gémar, Germán & Moniche, Laura & Morales, Antonio J., 2016. "Survival analysis of the Spanish hotel industry," Tourism Management, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 428-438.
    20. Reza Mortazavi & Catia Cialani, 2017. "International tourists’ length of overnight stay in Venice," Tourism Economics, , vol. 23(4), pages 882-889, June.
    21. Ming Xu & Yan Jiao & Xiaoming Li & Qingfeng Cao & Xiaoyang Wang, 2015. "A Multi-Period Optimization Model for Service Providers Using Online Reservation Systems: An Application to Hotels," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 10(7), pages 1-18, July.
    22. Rodríguez, Xosé A. & Martínez-Roget, Fidel & González-Murias, Pilar, 2018. "Length of stay: Evidence from Santiago de Compostela," Annals of Tourism Research, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 9-19.
    23. Christer Thrane, 2015. "Research Note: The Determinants of Tourists' Length of Stay: Some Further Modelling Issues," Tourism Economics, , vol. 21(5), pages 1087-1093, October.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Paulo H A Feitosa & Amanda B A Silva, 2022. "Length of stay and satisfaction shaping the competitiveness of international business tourism in São Paulo city, Brazil," Tourism Economics, , vol. 28(3), pages 728-747, May.
    2. Glauber Eduardo de Oliveira Santos, 2016. "An efficient method for modelling tourists’ length of stay," Tourism Economics, , vol. 22(6), pages 1367-1379, December.
    3. Ferrer-Rosell, Berta & Martínez-Garcia, Esther & Coenders, Germà, 2014. "Package and no-frills air carriers as moderators of length of stay," Tourism Management, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 114-122.
    4. Gómez-Déniz, E. & Pérez-Rodríguez, J.V., 2019. "Modelling bimodality of length of tourist stay," Annals of Tourism Research, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 131-151.
    5. Ashrafi Tannaz Alizadeh & Myrland Øystein, 2017. "Determinants of trip duration for international tourists in Norway; a parametric survival analysis," European Journal of Tourism, Hospitality and Recreation, Sciendo, vol. 8(1), pages 75-86, May.
    6. Jorge V Pérez-Rodríguez & Francisco Ledesma-Rodríguez, 2021. "Unconditional quantile regression and tourism expenditure: The case of the Canary Islands," Tourism Economics, , vol. 27(4), pages 626-648, June.
    7. Peypoch, Nicolas & Randriamboarison, Rado & Rasoamananjara, Fy & Solonandrasana, Bernardin, 2012. "The length of stay of tourists in Madagascar," Tourism Management, Elsevier, vol. 33(5), pages 1230-1235.
    8. Andrea Pellegrini & Stefano Scagnolari, 2021. "The relationship between length of stay and land transportation mode in the tourism sector: A discrete–continuous framework applied to Swiss data," Tourism Economics, , vol. 27(1), pages 243-259, February.
    9. Gómez–Déniz, E. & Pérez–Rodríguez, J.V., 2019. "Modelling distribution of aggregate expenditure on tourism," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 293-308.
    10. Barros, Carlos Pestana & Butler, Richard & Correia, Antónia, 2010. "The length of stay of golf tourism: A survival analysis," Tourism Management, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 13-21.
    11. Alegre, Joaquín & Mateo, Sara & Pou, Llorenç, 2011. "A latent class approach to tourists’ length of stay," Tourism Management, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 555-563.
    12. Grigolon, Anna B. & Borgers, Aloys W.J. & Kemperman, Astrid D.A.M. & Timmermans, Harry J.P., 2014. "Vacation length choice: A dynamic mixed multinomial logit model," Tourism Management, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 158-167.
    13. Cristina Bernini & Maria Francesca Cracolici, 2014. "Is Participation in Tourism Market an Opportunity for Everyone? Some Evidence from Italy," Working Papers 2014.17, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
    14. Rodríguez, Xosé A. & Martínez-Roget, Fidel & González-Murias, Pilar, 2018. "Length of stay: Evidence from Santiago de Compostela," Annals of Tourism Research, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 9-19.
    15. Paz Rico Belda & Bernardí Cabrer-Borrás, 2021. "Size and survival of the hospitality industry: The case of Spain," Tourism Economics, , vol. 27(5), pages 933-951, August.
    16. Gagnon, Alain & Bohnert, Nora, 2012. "Early life socioeconomic conditions in rural areas and old-age mortality in twentieth-century Quebec," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 75(8), pages 1497-1504.
    17. Jackman, Mahalia & Lorde, Troy & Naitram, Simon & Greenaway, Tori, 2020. "Distance matters: the impact of physical and relative distance on pleasure tourists' length of stay in Barbados," Annals of Tourism Research, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
    18. Antónia Correia & Jaime Serra & Andrés Artal-Tur, 2017. "Steady tourists’ relationship with a mature destination," Tourism Economics, , vol. 23(4), pages 803-815, June.
    19. Thrane, Christer, 2016. "Students' summer tourism: Determinants of length of stay (LOS)," Tourism Management, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 178-184.
    20. Alderighi, Marco & Gaggero, Alberto A., 2019. "Flight availability and international tourism flows," Annals of Tourism Research, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:touman:v:33:y:2012:i:1:p:126-132. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.journals.elsevier.com/tourism-management .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.