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Why the shared socioeconomic pathway framework has not been useful for improving climate change mitigation policy analysis

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  • Rosen, Richard A.

Abstract

Numerous ways to improve the usefulness of climate change mitigation scenarios that rely on the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) framework that was developed over the last 10 years have been suggested. The problem with these proposals is that the diagnosis of what has led to the inability of integrated assessment modelers to properly analyze mitigation policies is wrong. The first main problem with the past use of the SSP-based mitigation scenarios is that few input variables for what is supposed to be the same SSP are given the same numerical values by different modeling teams. The more significant problem with the way in SSP-based mitigation scenarios have been used to analyze mitigation policies is that the different integrated assessment models (IAMs) have very different structures and functions. Thus, even if all the input variables comprising a single SSP had the same numerical values, the scenario results from running such a SSP through different IAMs would be quite different, leading to different understandings of the usefulness of different mitigation policies. This situation can be avoided by developing just two or three more detailed and improved IAMs focused on the critical next 10–20 years for mitigating climate change.

Suggested Citation

  • Rosen, Richard A., 2021. "Why the shared socioeconomic pathway framework has not been useful for improving climate change mitigation policy analysis," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 166(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:tefoso:v:166:y:2021:i:c:s0040162521000433
    DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2021.120611
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Richard A. Rosen, 2016. "IS THE IPCC’s 5TH ASSESSMENT A DENIER OF POSSIBLE MACROECONOMIC BENEFITS FROM MITIGATING CLIMATE CHANGE?," Climate Change Economics (CCE), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 7(01), pages 1-30, February.
    2. Richard Rosen & Edeltraud Guenther, 2014. "The Economics of Mitigating Climate Change?," Challenge, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 57(4), pages 57-81.
    3. Richard A. Rosen, 2015. "IAMs and peer review," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 5(5), pages 390-390, May.
    4. Rosen, Richard A. & Guenther, Edeltraud, 2015. "The economics of mitigating climate change: What can we know?," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 93-106.
    5. Rosen, Richard A. & Guenther, Edeltraud, 2016. "The energy policy relevance of the 2014 IPCC Working Group III report on the macro-economics of mitigating climate change," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 330-334.
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