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Three senses of paradigm in scenario methodology: A preliminary framework and systematic approach for using intuitive logics scenarios to change mental models and improve strategic decision-making in situations of discontinuity

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  • Wayland, Rebecca

Abstract

This article outlines the objectives, activities, and achievements of using intuitive logics scenarios to improve strategic decision-making in situations of discontinuity. Pierre Wack's work at Royal Dutch/Shell illustrates the use of exploratory, reframing, and decision scenarios to change the mental models of decision-makers in advance of the 1973 oil crisis. Thomas S. Kuhn's The Structure of Scientific Revolutions offers a promising theoretical account of paradigm shifts in science, but its application is limited by the ambiguity of the concept of paradigm. Margaret Masterman's distinction of three senses of paradigm – introduced as construct paradigm, worldview paradigm, and action paradigm – clarifies and extends these accounts to support a preliminary framework and systematic approach. Overall, this investigation expands our understanding of strategic decision-making as guided not only by analytic achievements and developmental investigations but also by discontinuous breaks that can be explored and addressed using scenario methodology.

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  • Wayland, Rebecca, 2019. "Three senses of paradigm in scenario methodology: A preliminary framework and systematic approach for using intuitive logics scenarios to change mental models and improve strategic decision-making in ," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 146(C), pages 504-516.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:tefoso:v:146:y:2019:i:c:p:504-516
    DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2017.09.005
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