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Oil scenarios for long-term business planning: Royal Dutch Shell and generative explanation, 1960-2010

Author

Listed:
  • Jefferson, Michael
  • Voudouris, Vlasios

Abstract

Most executives know that overarching paints of plausible futures will profoundly affect the competitiveness and survival of their organisation. Initially from the perspective of Shell, this article discuses oil scenarios and their relevance for upstream investments. Scenarios are then incorporated into generative explanation and its principal instrument, namely agent-based computational laboratories, as the new standard of explanation of the past and the present and the new way to structure the uncertainties of the future. The key concept is that the future should not be regarded as ‘complicated’ but as ‘complex’, in that there are uncertainties about the driving forces that generate unanticipated futures, which cannot be explored analytically.

Suggested Citation

  • Jefferson, Michael & Voudouris, Vlasios, 2011. "Oil scenarios for long-term business planning: Royal Dutch Shell and generative explanation, 1960-2010," MPRA Paper 27910, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:27910
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    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/27910/1/MPRA_paper_27910.pdf
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    Cited by:

    1. Wayland, Rebecca, 2019. "Three senses of paradigm in scenario methodology: A preliminary framework and systematic approach for using intuitive logics scenarios to change mental models and improve strategic decision-making in ," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 146(C), pages 504-516.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    oil scenarios; Shell; ACEGES; agent-based computational economics;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C0 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - General
    • L1 - Industrial Organization - - Market Structure, Firm Strategy, and Market Performance

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