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Unraveling the space grammar of terrorist attacks: A TWC approach

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Listed:
  • Buscema, Massimo
  • Sacco, Pier Luigi
  • Massini, Giulia
  • Della Torre, Francesca
  • Brogi, Marco
  • Salonia, Massimo
  • Ferilli, Guido

Abstract

In this paper, we introduce a new approach to the analysis and prediction of the spatial pattern of terrorist attacks. Our analysis makes use of a new methodology that is based upon a topological rather than geometric approach. It exploits the space grammar of the observed events to derive complex inferences which relate to the deep structural layers of the data generating process, and to the organizational architecture of its spatial distribution. We test our methodology on two of the currently most important and virulent theaters of terrorist activity, Libya and Syria, and we find that our methodology provides a rich array of insights which cannot be expected to be generated by more traditional geographical profiling methods.

Suggested Citation

  • Buscema, Massimo & Sacco, Pier Luigi & Massini, Giulia & Della Torre, Francesca & Brogi, Marco & Salonia, Massimo & Ferilli, Guido, 2018. "Unraveling the space grammar of terrorist attacks: A TWC approach," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 132(C), pages 230-254.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:tefoso:v:132:y:2018:i:c:p:230-254
    DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2018.02.006
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Andres F. Arias & Hernan Maldonado, 2004. "FARC Terrorism in Colombia: A Clustering Analysis," Investigación Económica en Colombia 2715, Fundación Pondo.
    2. Bader, Benjamin & Schuster, Tassilo, 2015. "Expatriate Social Networks in Terrorism-Endangered Countries: An Empirical Analysis in Afghanistan, India, Pakistan, and Saudi Arabia," Journal of International Management, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 63-77.
    3. Buscema, Massimo & Massini, Giulia & Sacco, Pier Luigi, 2018. "The Topological Weighted Centroid (TWC): A topological approach to the time-space structure of epidemic and pseudo-epidemic processes," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 492(C), pages 582-627.
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    5. Guido Ferilli & Pier Luigi Sacco & Massimo Buscema & Giorgio Tavano Blessi, 2015. "Understanding Cultural Geography as a Pseudo-Diffusion Process: The Case of the Veneto Region," Economies, MDPI, vol. 3(2), pages 1-28, June.
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    7. Alex Braithwaite & QUAN LI, 2007. "Transnational Terrorism Hot Spots: Identification and Impact Evaluation," Conflict Management and Peace Science, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 24(4), pages 281-296, September.
    8. MacKay, R. Bradley & Parks, Ryan W., 2013. "The temporal dynamics of sensemaking: A hindsight–foresight analysis of public commission reporting into the past and future of the “new terrorism”," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 80(2), pages 364-377.
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    1. Buscema, Massimo & Ferilli, Guido & Gustafsson, Christer & Massini, Giulia & Sacco, Pier Luigi, 2022. "A nonlinear, data-driven, ANNs-based approach to culture-led development policies in rural areas: The case of Gjakove and Peć districts, Western Kosovo," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 162(C).
    2. Paolo Massimo Buscema & Guido Ferilli & Christer Gustafsson & Pier Luigi Sacco, 2020. "The Complex Dynamic Evolution of Cultural Vibrancy in the Region of Halland, Sweden," International Regional Science Review, , vol. 43(3), pages 159-202, May.
    3. Buscema, Paolo Massimo & Della Torre, Francesca & Breda, Marco & Massini, Giulia & Grossi, Enzo, 2020. "COVID-19 in Italy and extreme data mining," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 557(C).

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