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A hard-science approach to Kondratieff's economic cycle

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  • Modis, Theodore

Abstract

In an effort to evidence the Kondratieff cycle more scientifically than the way economists do, physical variables are studied rather than monetary indicators. Previously published graphs are reproduced and updated here with recent data. A cyclical rather regular variation of energy consumption reveals a 56-year cycle. A dozen human endeavors/phenomena, such as bank failures, homicides, hurricanes, feminism, and sunspot activity are shown to resonate with this cycle. Possible explanations for this phenomenon may have to do with a climatic variation or with the length of time any individual actively influences the environment. There is some evidence that the cycle may be getting shorter in amplitude and duration in recent years. All quantitative confidence levels involved in these observations are poor by scientific standards and permit critics to question the very existence of this phenomenon.

Suggested Citation

  • Modis, Theodore, 2017. "A hard-science approach to Kondratieff's economic cycle," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 122(C), pages 63-70.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:tefoso:v:122:y:2017:i:c:p:63-70
    DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2017.04.015
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Modis, Theodore, 2007. "Sunspots, GDP, and the Stock Market," OSF Preprints zse25, Center for Open Science.
    2. Moore, Henry Ludwell, 1914. "Economics Cycles: Their law and cause," History of Economic Thought Books, McMaster University Archive for the History of Economic Thought, number moore1914.
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    Cited by:

    1. Modis, Theodore, 2019. "Forecasting energy needs with logistics," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 139(C), pages 135-143.
    2. Phillips, Fred, 2019. "50 years of TF&SC," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 143(C), pages 125-131.
    3. Bilgen, Hakki, 2021. "A global comparison methodology to determine critical requirements for achieving industry 4.0," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 172(C).
    4. de Groot, E.A. & Segers, R. & Prins, D., 2021. "Disentangling the enigma of multi-structured economic cycles - A new appearance of the golden ratio," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 169(C).

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