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Scenario-Driven Roadmapping to cope with uncertainty: Its application in the construction industry

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  • Siebelink, Remco
  • Halman, Johannes I.M.
  • Hofman, Erwin

Abstract

Roadmapping is widely considered as an appropriate approach for matching short-term actions to long-term goals. However, current roadmapping approaches fall short in effectively considering the uncertainty associated with future developments. In particular, existing methods cannot cope with uncertainty without destroying the communicative and directive strengths of roadmapping. This is especially a concern if roadmapping is to be widely used for strategic purposes. In this paper, we therefore introduce a comprehensible approach that enables firms to benefit from guiding their strategic innovation activities while still being able to consider a wide range of possible future business environments. To this end, we have developed the Scenario-Driven Roadmapping approach while aiming to ensure a robust roadmap. We present the results of an initial application of this approach in a major Dutch construction firm. The results showed that applying Scenario-Driven Roadmapping was effective in both reducing environmental uncertainty and in directing innovation towards promising business activities. In concluding, the paper makes recommendations on how to maximize the benefits of Scenario-Driven Roadmapping.

Suggested Citation

  • Siebelink, Remco & Halman, Johannes I.M. & Hofman, Erwin, 2016. "Scenario-Driven Roadmapping to cope with uncertainty: Its application in the construction industry," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 110(C), pages 226-238.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:tefoso:v:110:y:2016:i:c:p:226-238
    DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2016.01.030
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    Cited by:

    1. Yujin Jeong & Hyejin Jang & Byungun Yoon, 2021. "Developing a risk-adaptive technology roadmap using a Bayesian network and topic modeling under deep uncertainty," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 126(5), pages 3697-3722, May.
    2. Spaniol, Matthew J. & Rowland, Nicholas J., 2022. "Business ecosystems and the view from the future: The use of corporate foresight by stakeholders of the Ro-Ro shipping ecosystem in the Baltic Sea Region," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 184(C).
    3. Yu, Xiang & Zhang, Ben, 2019. "Obtaining advantages from technology revolution: A patent roadmap for competition analysis and strategy planning," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 145(C), pages 273-283.
    4. Siebelink, Remco & Hofman, Erwin & Halman, Johannes I.M. & Nee, Ingo, 2021. "Roadmapping: (Missed) opportunities to overcome strategic challenges," Business Horizons, Elsevier, vol. 64(4), pages 501-512.
    5. Vasconcelos Gomes, Leonardo Augusto de & Salerno, Mario Sergio & Phaal, Robert & Probert, David R., 2018. "How entrepreneurs manage collective uncertainties in innovation ecosystems," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 128(C), pages 164-185.
    6. de Alcantara, Douglas Pedro & Martens, Mauro Luiz, 2019. "Technology Roadmapping (TRM): a systematic review of the literature focusing on models," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 138(C), pages 127-138.

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