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Exploring emerging technologies using metaphors - A study of orphan drugs and pharmacogenomics

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  • Boon, Wouter
  • Moors, Ellen

Abstract

Due to uncertainties of several aspects of emerging health technologies, there is a need to anticipate these developments early. A first step would be to gather information and develop future visions about the technology. This paper introduces metaphor analysis as a novel way to do this. Specifically, we study the future of pharmacogenomics by comparing this technology with orphan drugs, which are more established and often act as a model with comparable (economic, research organisation, etc.) characteristics. The analysis consists of describing the dominant metaphors used and structurally exploring (dis)similarities between pharmacogenomics and orphan drugs developments. This comparison leads to lessons that can be learnt for the emerging pharmacogenomics future. We carried out a comprehensive literature review, extracting metaphors in a structured way from different areas of the drug research and development pipeline. The paper argues that (1) there are many similarities between orphan drugs and pharmacogenomics, especially in terms of registration, and social and economic impacts; (2) pharmacogenomics developments are regarded both as a future 'poison' and a 'chance', whereas orphan drugs are seen as a 'gift', and at the same time as a large 'problem'; and (3) metaphor analysis proves to be a tool for creating prospective images of pharmacogenomics and other emerging technologies.

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  • Boon, Wouter & Moors, Ellen, 2008. "Exploring emerging technologies using metaphors - A study of orphan drugs and pharmacogenomics," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 66(9), pages 1915-1927, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:socmed:v:66:y:2008:i:9:p:1915-1927
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    3. William E. Evans & Mary V. Relling, 2004. "Moving towards individualized medicine with pharmacogenomics," Nature, Nature, vol. 429(6990), pages 464-468, May.
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    2. Porter, Alan L. & Garner, Jon & Carley, Stephen F. & Newman, Nils C., 2019. "Emergence scoring to identify frontier R&D topics and key players," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 146(C), pages 628-643.
    3. Li, Munan & Porter, Alan L. & Suominen, Arho, 2018. "Insights into relationships between disruptive technology/innovation and emerging technology: A bibliometric perspective," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 129(C), pages 285-296.
    4. Andrzej Magruk, 2021. "Analysis of Uncertainties and Levels of Foreknowledge in Relation to Major Features of Emerging Technologies—The Context of Foresight Research for the Fourth Industrial Revolution," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(17), pages 1-16, September.
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    6. Marialuisa Saviano & Sergio Barile & Francesco Caputo & Mattia Lettieri & Stefania Zanda, 2019. "From Rare to Neglected Diseases: A Sustainable and Inclusive Healthcare Perspective for Reframing the Orphan Drugs Issue," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(5), pages 1-21, March.
    7. Chao Yang & Donghua Zhu & Xuefeng Wang & Yi Zhang & Guangquan Zhang & Jie Lu, 2017. "Requirement-oriented core technological components’ identification based on SAO analysis," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 112(3), pages 1229-1248, September.
    8. Wooseok Jang & Yongtae Park & Hyeonju Seol, 2021. "Identifying emerging technologies using expert opinions on the future: A topic modeling and fuzzy clustering approach," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 126(8), pages 6505-6532, August.
    9. Moehrle, Martin G. & Caferoglu, Hüseyin, 2019. "Technological speciation as a source for emerging technologies. Using semantic patent analysis for the case of camera technology," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 146(C), pages 776-784.
    10. Ad van den Oord & Arjen van Witteloostuijn, 2018. "A multi-level model of emerging technology: An empirical study of the evolution of biotechnology from 1976 to 2003," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 13(5), pages 1-27, May.
    11. Li, Xin & Xie, Qianqian & Jiang, Jiaojiao & Zhou, Yuan & Huang, Lucheng, 2019. "Identifying and monitoring the development trends of emerging technologies using patent analysis and Twitter data mining: The case of perovskite solar cell technology," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 146(C), pages 687-705.
    12. Rotolo, Daniele & Hicks, Diana & Martin, Ben R., 2015. "What is an emerging technology?," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 44(10), pages 1827-1843.
    13. Belousova, Olga A. & Groen, Aard J. & Ouendag, Aniek M., 2020. "Opportunities and barriers for innovation and entrepreneurship in orphan drug development," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 161(C).
    14. Bojovic, Neva, 2022. "Strategic framing of enabling technologies: Insights from firms digitizing smell and taste," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 51(3).
    15. Petros Gkotsis & Antonio Vezzani, 2016. "Technological diffusion as a recombinant process," JRC Working Papers on Corporate R&D and Innovation 2016-07, Joint Research Centre.
    16. Boon, Wouter P.C. & Moors, Ellen H.M. & Meijer, Albert J., 2014. "Exploring dynamics and strategies of niche protection," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 43(4), pages 792-803.
    17. Delbaere, Marjorie, 2013. "Metaphors and myths in pharmaceutical advertising," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 21-29.
    18. Klerkx, Laurens & van Bommel, Severine & Bos, Bram & Holster, Henri & Zwartkruis, Joyce V. & Aarts, Noelle, 2012. "Design process outputs as boundary objects in agricultural innovation projects: Functions and limitations," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 113(C), pages 39-49.

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