IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/soceps/v71y2020ics0038012119302174.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

A multi-criteria expert decision system for investment decisions: The case of commercial real estate investments in China

Author

Listed:
  • Huang, Kun-Tai
  • Ozer, Muammer

Abstract

Consistent with the rapid growth of the Chinese economy and its commercial real estate (CRE) market, evaluating CRE investments in China is becoming an important application area where a multi-criteria expert decision system can make a significant contribution. We used a multi-criteria expert decision system to evaluate ten actual CRE investments in China. Based on thirty-one industry experts, we identified key decision factors to consider when evaluating different CRE investment projects and determined their importance weights. We then evaluated whether or not the ten CRE investment projects were considered to be successful, taking into account the unique characteristics of each CRE investment project. We finally compared the evaluations for the ten cases with their actual performance using four different performance indicators. The results showed that the evaluations had at least 87.5% accuracy across four different performance indicators. As probably one of the first systematic and in-depth scholarly studies to evaluate CRE investment projects in China, this study contributes to a better understanding of such evaluations and helps CRE investors evaluate CRE investment projects in a more informed fashion.

Suggested Citation

  • Huang, Kun-Tai & Ozer, Muammer, 2020. "A multi-criteria expert decision system for investment decisions: The case of commercial real estate investments in China," Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:soceps:v:71:y:2020:i:c:s0038012119302174
    DOI: 10.1016/j.seps.2019.100769
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0038012119302174
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.seps.2019.100769?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Abastante, Francesca & Corrente, Salvatore & Greco, Salvatore & Ishizaka, Alessio & Lami, Isabella M., 2018. "Choice architecture for architecture choices: Evaluating social housing initiatives putting together a parsimonious AHP methodology and the Choquet integral," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 748-762.
    2. Coën, Alain & Lefebvre, Benoit & Simon, Arnaud, 2018. "International money supply and real estate risk premium: The case of the London office market," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 120-140.
    3. Kim Hin (David) Ho, 2007. "Modeling the structure of CV formation and expectations," Journal of Property Investment & Finance, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 25(2), pages 179-206, March.
    4. Muammer Ozer & Mumin Dayan, 2015. "Strategic, organizational and operational challenges of product innovation in emerging economies," Journal of Global Scholars of Marketing Science, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 25(1), pages 5-16, January.
    5. Lelo, Keti & Monni, Salvatore & Tomassi, Federico, 2019. "Socio-spatial inequalities and urban transformation. The case of Rome districts," Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
    6. Ozer, Muammer, 2008. "Improving the accuracy of expert predictions of the future success of new internet services," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 184(3), pages 1085-1099, February.
    7. Stewart, TJ, 1992. "A critical survey on the status of multiple criteria decision making theory and practice," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 20(5-6), pages 569-586.
    8. Hongxin Zhao & Muammer Ozer & Weidong Rong & Reuben Mondejar, 2019. "Do Management Innovations of Indigenous Firms Benefit from Managerial Spillovers from Multinational Enterprises?," Management International Review, Springer, vol. 59(6), pages 919-947, December.
    9. Alain Coen & Benoît Lefebvre & Arnaud Simon, 2018. "International money supply and real estate risk premium: The case of the London office market," Post-Print hal-01778910, HAL.
    10. Ghazi, Amineh & Hosseinzadeh Lotfi, Farhad, 2019. "Assessment and budget allocation of Iranian natural gas distribution company- A CSW DEA based model," Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 112-118.
    11. Hung-Gay Fung & Alan Guoming Huang & Qingfeng Wilson Liu & Maggie Xiaoqin Shen, 2006. "The Development of the Real Estate Industry in China," Chinese Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 39(1), pages 84-102, February.
    12. Stefano Capolongo & Leopoldo Sdino & Marta Dell’Ovo & Rossella Moioli & Stefano Della Torre, 2019. "How to Assess Urban Regeneration Proposals by Considering Conflicting Values," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(14), pages 1-15, July.
    13. Rezaei-Malek, Mohammad & Torabi, S. Ali & Tavakkoli-Moghaddam, Reza, 2019. "Prioritizing disaster-prone areas for large-scale earthquakes' preparedness: Methodology and application," Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 9-25.
    14. Stanley Zionts & Jyrki Wallenius, 1976. "An Interactive Programming Method for Solving the Multiple Criteria Problem," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 22(6), pages 652-663, February.
    15. Ozer, Muammer, 2005. "Factors which influence decision making in new product evaluation," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 163(3), pages 784-801, June.
    16. André, Francisco J. & Cardenete, M. Alejandro, 2009. "Defining efficient policies in a general equilibrium model: a multi-objective approach," Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 43(3), pages 192-200, September.
    17. Weistroffer, H. Roland & Wooldridge, Blue E. & Singh, Rahul, 1999. "A multi-criteria approach to local tax planning," Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 301-315, December.
    18. Jyrki Wallenius & James S. Dyer & Peter C. Fishburn & Ralph E. Steuer & Stanley Zionts & Kalyanmoy Deb, 2008. "Multiple Criteria Decision Making, Multiattribute Utility Theory: Recent Accomplishments and What Lies Ahead," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 54(7), pages 1336-1349, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Dimitris Bertsimas & Allison O'Hair, 2013. "Learning Preferences Under Noise and Loss Aversion: An Optimization Approach," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 61(5), pages 1190-1199, October.
    2. Ozer, Muammer, 2011. "Understanding the impacts of product knowledge and product type on the accuracy of intentions-based new product predictions," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 211(2), pages 359-369, June.
    3. Govindan, Kannan & Jepsen, Martin Brandt, 2016. "ELECTRE: A comprehensive literature review on methodologies and applications," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 250(1), pages 1-29.
    4. Ozer, Muammer, 2007. "Reducing the demand uncertainties at the fuzzy-front-end of developing new online services," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(9), pages 1372-1387, November.
    5. Behnam Malakooti, 2015. "Double Helix Value Functions, Ordinal/Cardinal Approach, Additive Utility Functions, Multiple Criteria, Decision Paradigm, Process, and Types (Z Theory I)," International Journal of Information Technology & Decision Making (IJITDM), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 14(06), pages 1353-1400, November.
    6. David Kik & Matthias Gerhard Wichmann & Thomas Stefan Spengler, 2022. "Decision support framework for the regional facility location and development planning problem," Journal of Business Economics, Springer, vol. 92(1), pages 115-157, January.
    7. Park, K. Sam & Shin, Dong Eun, 2012. "Interactive multiobjective optimization approach to the input–output design of opening new branches," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 220(2), pages 530-538.
    8. Fowler, John W. & Gel, Esma S. & Köksalan, Murat M. & Korhonen, Pekka & Marquis, Jon L. & Wallenius, Jyrki, 2010. "Interactive evolutionary multi-objective optimization for quasi-concave preference functions," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 206(2), pages 417-425, October.
    9. Miyakoshi, Tatsuyoshi & Li, Kui-Wai & Shimada, Junji & Tsukuda, Yoshihiko, 2020. "The impact of quantitative easing and carry trade on the real estate market in Hong Kong," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 958-976.
    10. Korhonen, Pekka J. & Wallenius, Jyrki & Genc, Tolga & Xu, Peng, 2021. "On rational behavior in multi-attribute riskless choice," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 288(1), pages 331-342.
    11. Smeulders, Bart & Crama, Yves & Spieksma, Frits C.R., 2019. "Revealed preference theory: An algorithmic outlook," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 272(3), pages 803-815.
    12. Ishizaka, Alessio & Siraj, Sajid, 2018. "Are multi-criteria decision-making tools useful? An experimental comparative study of three methods," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 264(2), pages 462-471.
    13. Aron Larsson & Mona Riabacke & Mats Danielson & Love Ekenberg, 2015. "Cardinal and Rank Ordering of Criteria — Addressing Prescription within Weight Elicitation," International Journal of Information Technology & Decision Making (IJITDM), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 14(06), pages 1299-1330, November.
    14. Ainhoa Gonzalez & Álvaro Enríquez-de-Salamanca, 2018. "Spatial Multi-Criteria Analysis in Environmental Assessment: A Review and Reflection on Benefits and Limitations," Journal of Environmental Assessment Policy and Management (JEAPM), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 20(03), pages 1-24, September.
    15. Shuang Yao & Donghua Yu & Yan Song & Hao Yao & Yuzhen Hu & Benhai Guo, 2018. "Dry Bulk Carrier Investment Selection through a Dual Group Decision Fusing Mechanism in the Green Supply Chain," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(12), pages 1-19, November.
    16. Tofallis, C., 1996. "Improving discernment in DEA using profiling," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 24(3), pages 361-364, June.
    17. Seungwoo Han, 2022. "Spatial stratification and socio-spatial inequalities: the case of Seoul and Busan in South Korea," Palgrave Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 9(1), pages 1-14, December.
    18. Thomas L. Saaty, 2013. "The Modern Science of Multicriteria Decision Making and Its Practical Applications: The AHP/ANP Approach," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 61(5), pages 1101-1118, October.
    19. Samek, Anya & Hur, Inkyoung & Kim, Sung-Hee & Yi, Ji Soo, 2016. "An experimental study of the decision process with interactive technology," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 130(C), pages 20-32.
    20. Matteo Böhm & Mirco Nanni & Luca Pappalardo, 2022. "Gross polluters and vehicle emissions reduction," Nature Sustainability, Nature, vol. 5(8), pages 699-707, August.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:soceps:v:71:y:2020:i:c:s0038012119302174. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/seps .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.