Implied volatility forecast and option trading strategy
Author
Abstract
Suggested Citation
DOI: 10.1016/j.iref.2020.10.023
Download full text from publisher
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.
References listed on IDEAS
- Nicolas P. B. Bollen & Robert E. Whaley, 2004. "Does Net Buying Pressure Affect the Shape of Implied Volatility Functions?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 59(2), pages 711-753, April.
- Sophie X. Ni & Jun Pan & Allen M. Poteshman, 2008. "Volatility Information Trading in the Option Market," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 63(3), pages 1059-1091, June.
- Georgios Sermpinis & Jason Laws & Christian L. Dunis, 2013. "Modelling and trading the realised volatility of the FTSE100 futures with higher order neural networks," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(3), pages 165-179, March.
- Fahlenbrach, Rüdiger & Sandås, Patrik, 2010. "Does information drive trading in option strategies?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(10), pages 2370-2385, October.
- Koopman, Siem Jan & Jungbacker, Borus & Hol, Eugenie, 2005.
"Forecasting daily variability of the S&P 100 stock index using historical, realised and implied volatility measurements,"
Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 445-475, June.
- Siem Jan Koopman & Borus Jungbacker & Eugenie Hol, 2004. "Forecasting Daily Variability of the S&P 100 Stock Index using Historical, Realised and Implied Volatility Measurements," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 04-016/4, Tinbergen Institute.
- Eugenie Hol & Siem Jan Koopman & Borus Jungbacker, 2004. "Forecasting daily variability of the S\&P 100 stock index using historical, realised and implied volatility measurements," Computing in Economics and Finance 2004 342, Society for Computational Economics.
- repec:esx:essedp:713 is not listed on IDEAS
- George J. Jiang, 2002. "Testing Option Pricing Models with Stochastic Volatility, Random Jumps and Stochastic Interest Rates," International Review of Finance, International Review of Finance Ltd., vol. 3(3‐4), pages 233-272, September.
- Robert F. Engle & Magdalena E. Sokalska, 0. "Forecasting intraday volatility in the US equity market. Multiplicative component GARCH," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Oxford University Press, vol. 10(1), pages 54-83.
- Markose, Sheri M & Peng, Yue & Alentorn, Amadeo, 2012. "Forecasting Extreme Volatility of FTSE-100 With Model Free VFTSE, Carr-Wu and Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) Option Implied Volatility Indices," Economics Discussion Papers 3713, University of Essex, Department of Economics.
- Keith Pilbeam & Kjell Langeland, 2015. "Forecasting exchange rate volatility: GARCH models versus implied volatility forecasts," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 12(1), pages 127-142, March.
- S. Muzzioli, 2010. "Option-based forecasts of volatility: an empirical study in the DAX-index options market," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(6), pages 561-586.
- Liao Xu & Xiangkang Yin, 2017. "Exchange Traded Funds and Stock Market Volatility," International Review of Finance, International Review of Finance Ltd., vol. 17(4), pages 525-560, December.
- George J. Jiang & Yisong S. Tian, 2005. "The Model-Free Implied Volatility and Its Information Content," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 18(4), pages 1305-1342.
- Dajiang Guo, 2000. "Dynamic Volatility Trading Strategies in the Currency Option Market," Review of Derivatives Research, Springer, vol. 4(2), pages 133-154, May.
Citations
Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
Cited by:
- Sudarshan Kumar & Sobhesh Kumar Agarwalla & Jayanth R. Varma & Vineet Virmani, 2023. "Harvesting the volatility smile in a large emerging market: A Dynamic Nelson–Siegel approach," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 43(11), pages 1615-1644, November.
- Radosław Puka & Bartosz Łamasz & Marek Michalski, 2021. "Effectiveness of Artificial Neural Networks in Hedging against WTI Crude Oil Price Risk," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(11), pages 1-26, June.
Most related items
These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.- Yang, Heejin & Kutan, Ali M. & Ryu, Doojin, 2019. "Volatility information trading in the index options market: An intraday analysis," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 412-426.
- Markopoulou, Chryssa & Skintzi, Vasiliki & Refenes, Apostolos, 2016. "On the predictability of model-free implied correlation," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 527-547.
- Wilkens, Sascha & Roder, Klaus, 2006. "The informational content of option-implied distributions: Evidence from the Eurex index and interest rate futures options market," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 50-74, September.
- Doojin Ryu & Doowon Ryu & Heejin Yang, 2021. "The impact of net buying pressure on index options prices," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 41(1), pages 27-45, January.
- Dicle, Mehmet F. & Levendis, John, 2020. "Historic risk and implied volatility," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 45(C).
- Elyas Elyasiani & Luca Gambarelli & Silvia Muzzioli, 2015. "Towards a skewness index for the Italian stock market," Department of Economics 0064, University of Modena and Reggio E., Faculty of Economics "Marco Biagi".
- Chun, Dohyun & Cho, Hoon & Ryu, Doojin, 2020. "Economic indicators and stock market volatility in an emerging economy," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 44(2).
- Kaeck, Andreas & van Kervel, Vincent & Seeger, Norman J., 2022. "Price impact versus bid–ask spreads in the index option market," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 59(PA).
- Doojin Ryu & Jinyoung Yu, 2021. "Informed options trading around holidays," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 41(5), pages 658-685, May.
- Bates, David S., 2008. "The market for crash risk," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 32(7), pages 2291-2321, July.
- Kim, Donghan & Kim, Jun Sik & Seo, Sung Won, 2018. "What options to trade and when: Evidence from seasoned equity offerings," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 70-96.
- Chang, Bo Young & Christoffersen, Peter & Jacobs, Kris, 2013.
"Market skewness risk and the cross section of stock returns,"
Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 107(1), pages 46-68.
- Chang, Bo Young & Christoffersen, Peter & Jacobs, Kris, 2010. "Market Skewness Risk and the Cross-Section of Stock Returns," Working Papers 11-18, University of Pennsylvania, Wharton School, Weiss Center.
- Lim, Terence & Lo, Andrew W. & Merton, Robert C. & Scholes, Myron S., 2006. "The Derivatives Sourcebook," Foundations and Trends(R) in Finance, now publishers, vol. 1(5–6), pages 365-572, April.
- Kanne, Stefan & Korn, Olaf & Uhrig-Homburg, Marliese, 2023. "Stock illiquidity and option returns," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 63(C).
- Bakshi, Gurdip & Madan, Dilip & Panayotov, George, 2010. "Returns of claims on the upside and the viability of U-shaped pricing kernels," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 97(1), pages 130-154, July.
- Ho, Hwai-Chung & Tsai, Wei-Che, 2020. "Price delay and post-earnings announcement drift anomalies: The role of option-implied betas," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).
- Dunis, Christian & Kellard, Neil M. & Snaith, Stuart, 2013. "Forecasting EUR–USD implied volatility: The case of intraday data," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(12), pages 4943-4957.
- Silvia Muzzioli & Luca Gambarelli & Bernard De Baets, 2018. "Indices for Financial Market Volatility Obtained Through Fuzzy Regression," International Journal of Information Technology & Decision Making (IJITDM), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 17(06), pages 1659-1691, November.
- Yanhui Chen & Kin Lai & Jiangze Du, 2014. "Modeling and forecasting Hang Seng index volatility with day-of-week effect, spillover effect based on ARIMA and HAR," Eurasian Economic Review, Springer;Eurasia Business and Economics Society, vol. 4(2), pages 113-132, December.
- Elyas Elyasiani & Silvia Muzzioli & Alessio Ruggieri, 2016. "Forecasting and pricing powers of option-implied tree models: Tranquil and volatile market conditions," Department of Economics 0099, University of Modena and Reggio E., Faculty of Economics "Marco Biagi".
More about this item
Keywords
ABC-BP neural network model; Implied volatility; Options trading strategy;All these keywords.
JEL classification:
- C6 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling
- D9 - Microeconomics - - Micro-Based Behavioral Economics
- G1 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets
Statistics
Access and download statisticsCorrections
All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:reveco:v:71:y:2021:i:c:p:943-954. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/620165 .
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.