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Simulation of aggregate wind farm short-term production variations

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  • Goić, R.
  • Krstulović, J.
  • Jakus, D.

Abstract

The variability of wind power production poses the greatest challenge in the integration of large-scale wind power in power systems. Furthermore, larger-scale penetration implies a wider geographical spreading of installed wind power, resulting in reduced variability and the smoothing effect of total power generation. Therefore, analysis of the impact of wind power variations on power system operation requires adequate modeling of aggregate power output from geographically dispersed wind farms. This paper analyzes different aspects of Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation methods for the synthetic generation of dependent wind power time series. However, testing indicates that these approaches do not adequately model the stochastic dependence between wind power time series in conjunction with individual persistence which is necessary to obtain realistic distributions of aggregate power output and total power variations. Consequently, a novel approach based on a modified second-order Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation is proposed. Simulation results show that this method obtains synthetic time series of aggregate wind power which very closely fit the original data, with respect to both the cumulative density function of total output power and the probability density function of power variations.

Suggested Citation

  • Goić, R. & Krstulović, J. & Jakus, D., 2010. "Simulation of aggregate wind farm short-term production variations," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 35(11), pages 2602-2609.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:renene:v:35:y:2010:i:11:p:2602-2609
    DOI: 10.1016/j.renene.2010.04.005
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Ettoumi, F.Youcef & Sauvageot, H & Adane, A.-E.-H, 2003. "Statistical bivariate modelling of wind using first-order Markov chain and Weibull distribution," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 28(11), pages 1787-1802.
    2. Shamshad, A. & Bawadi, M.A. & Wan Hussin, W.M.A. & Majid, T.A. & Sanusi, S.A.M., 2005. "First and second order Markov chain models for synthetic generation of wind speed time series," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 30(5), pages 693-708.
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    Cited by:

    1. Jussi Ekström & Matti Koivisto & Ilkka Mellin & Robert John Millar & Matti Lehtonen, 2018. "A Statistical Modeling Methodology for Long-Term Wind Generation and Power Ramp Simulations in New Generation Locations," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(9), pages 1-18, September.
    2. Nuño Martinez, Edgar & Cutululis, Nicolaos & Sørensen, Poul, 2018. "High dimensional dependence in power systems: A review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 197-213.
    3. Olauson, Jon & Bergkvist, Mikael, 2015. "Modelling the Swedish wind power production using MERRA reanalysis data," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 717-725.
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    5. Ikegami, Takashi & Urabe, Chiyori T. & Saitou, Tetsuo & Ogimoto, Kazuhiko, 2018. "Numerical definitions of wind power output fluctuations for power system operations," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 115(C), pages 6-15.
    6. Punda, Luka & Capuder, Tomislav & Pandžić, Hrvoje & Delimar, Marko, 2017. "Integration of renewable energy sources in southeast Europe: A review of incentive mechanisms and feasibility of investments," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 77-88.
    7. Nycander, Elis & Morales-España, Germán & Söder, Lennart, 2022. "Power-based modelling of renewable variability in dispatch models with clustered time periods," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 186(C), pages 944-956.
    8. Ingeborg Graabak & Magnus Korpås, 2016. "Variability Characteristics of European Wind and Solar Power Resources—A Review," Energies, MDPI, vol. 9(6), pages 1-31, June.
    9. Widén, Joakim & Carpman, Nicole & Castellucci, Valeria & Lingfors, David & Olauson, Jon & Remouit, Flore & Bergkvist, Mikael & Grabbe, Mårten & Waters, Rafael, 2015. "Variability assessment and forecasting of renewables: A review for solar, wind, wave and tidal resources," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 356-375.
    10. Ekström, Jussi & Koivisto, Matti & Mellin, Ilkka & Millar, John & Saarijärvi, Eero & Haarla, Liisa, 2015. "Assessment of large scale wind power generation with new generation locations without measurement data," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 362-374.

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