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Modelling and assessment of dependent performance shaping factors through Analytic Network Process

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  • De Ambroggi, Massimiliano
  • Trucco, Paolo

Abstract

Despite continuous progresses in research and applications, one of the major weaknesses of current HRA methods dwells in their limited capability of modelling the mutual influences between performance shaping factors (PSFs). Indeed at least two types of dependencies between PSFs can be defined: (i) dependency between the states of the PSFs; (ii) dependency between the influences (impacts) of the PSFs on the human performance. This paper introduces a method, based on Analytic Network Process (ANP), for the quantification of the latter, where the overall contribution of each PSF (weight) to the human error probability (HEP) is eventually returned. The core of the method is the modelling process, articulated into two steps: firstly, a qualitative network of dependencies between PSFs is identified, then, the importance of each PSF is quantitatively assessed using ANP. The model allows to distinguish two components of the PSF influence: direct influence that is the influence that the considered PSF is able to express by itself, notwithstanding the presence of other PSFs and indirect influence that is the incremental influence of the considered PSF through its influence on other PSFs. A case study in Air Traffic Control is presented where the proposed approach is integrated into the cognitive simulator PROCOS. The results demonstrated a significant modification of the influence of PSFs over the operator performance when dependencies are taken into account, underlining the importance of considering not only the possible correlation between the states of PSFs but also their mutual dependency in affecting human performance in complex systems.

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  • De Ambroggi, Massimiliano & Trucco, Paolo, 2011. "Modelling and assessment of dependent performance shaping factors through Analytic Network Process," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 96(7), pages 849-860.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:reensy:v:96:y:2011:i:7:p:849-860
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ress.2011.03.004
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    7. Kim, Yochan & Park, Jinkyun & Jung, Wondea & Jang, Inseok & Hyun Seong, Poong, 2015. "A statistical approach to estimating effects of performance shaping factors on human error probabilities of soft controls," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 142(C), pages 378-387.
    8. Patriarca, Riccardo & Ramos, Marilia & Paltrinieri, Nicola & Massaiu, Salvatore & Costantino, Francesco & Di Gravio, Giulio & Boring, Ronald Laurids, 2020. "Human reliability analysis: Exploring the intellectual structure of a research field," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 203(C).
    9. Peng Liu & Zhizhong Li, 2014. "Human Error Data Collection and Comparison with Predictions by SPAR‐H," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 34(9), pages 1706-1719, September.
    10. Liu, Jianqiao & Zou, Yanhua & Wang, Wei & Zhang, Li & Liu, Xueyang & Ding, Qianqiao & Qin, Zhuomin & ÄŒepin, Marko, 2021. "Analysis of dependencies among performance shaping factors in human reliability analysis based on a system dynamics approach," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 215(C).
    11. Groth, Katrina M. & Swiler, Laura P., 2013. "Bridging the gap between HRA research and HRA practice: A Bayesian network version of SPAR-H," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 115(C), pages 33-42.
    12. Wang, Lijing & Wang, Yanlong & Chen, Yingchun & Pan, Xing & Zhang, Wenjin & Zhu, Yanzhi, 2020. "Methodology for assessing dependencies between factors influencing airline pilot performance reliability: A case of taxiing tasks," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 89(C).
    13. Liu, Peng & Lyu, Xi & Qiu, Yongping & He, Jiandong & Tong, Jiejuan & Zhao, Jun & Li, Zhizhong, 2017. "Identifying key performance shaping factors in digital main control rooms of nuclear power plants: A risk-based approach," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 167(C), pages 264-275.
    14. Preischl, Wolfgang & Hellmich, Mario, 2013. "Human error probabilities from operational experience of German nuclear power plants," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 109(C), pages 150-159.
    15. Su, Xiaoyan & Mahadevan, Sankaran & Xu, Peida & Deng, Yong, 2014. "Inclusion of task dependence in human reliability analysis," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 128(C), pages 41-55.
    16. Liu, Jianqiao & Zou, Yanhua & Wang, Wei & Zio, Enrico & Yuan, Chengwei & Wang, Taorui & Jiang, Jianjun, 2022. "A Bayesian belief network framework for nuclear power plant human reliability analysis accounting for dependencies among performance shaping factors," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 228(C).
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