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Estimating Human Error Probability using a modified CREAM

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  • Sun, Zhiqiang
  • Li, Zhengyi
  • Gong, Erling
  • Xie, Hongwei

Abstract

Human Error Probability (HEP) point estimation is important for Probabilistic Safety Assessment (PSA) of socio-technical systems. We present a modified basic method of CREAM to provide the point estimation of HEP for PSA. Five acknowledged assumptions are introduced firstly and the HEP point estimation formula is elicited based on them. Furthermore, the reasonability of the method is discussed and the consistency with other two benchmarking HRA methods, THERP and HEART is validated. Finally, a simple example about starting up the submarine's engine is introduced and the probability of the error forgetting the warm operation is calculated using the modified method. The result of the method is consistent with the recorded human performance data and THERP.

Suggested Citation

  • Sun, Zhiqiang & Li, Zhengyi & Gong, Erling & Xie, Hongwei, 2012. "Estimating Human Error Probability using a modified CREAM," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 100(C), pages 28-32.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:reensy:v:100:y:2012:i:c:p:28-32
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ress.2011.12.017
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Chang, Y.H.J. & Mosleh, A., 2007. "Cognitive modeling and dynamic probabilistic simulation of operating crew response to complex system accidents," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 92(8), pages 1041-1060.
    2. Park, Kyung S. & Lee, Jae in, 2008. "A new method for estimating human error probabilities: AHP–SLIM," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 93(4), pages 578-587.
    3. Kim, Man Cheol & Seong, Poong Hyun & Hollnagel, Erik, 2006. "A probabilistic approach for determining the control mode in CREAM," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 91(2), pages 191-199.
    4. Boring, Ronald L. & Hendrickson, Stacey M.L. & Forester, John A. & Tran, Tuan Q. & Lois, Erasmia, 2010. "Issues in benchmarking human reliability analysis methods: A literature review," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 95(6), pages 591-605.
    5. Chang, Y.H.J. & Mosleh, A., 2007. "Cognitive modeling and dynamic probabilistic simulation of operating crew response to complex system accidents," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 92(8), pages 1076-1101.
    6. He, Xuhong & Wang, Yao & Shen, Zupei & Huang, Xiangrui, 2008. "A simplified CREAM prospective quantification process and its application," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 93(2), pages 298-306.
    7. Chang, Y.H.J. & Mosleh, A., 2007. "Cognitive modeling and dynamic probabilistic simulation of operating crew response to complex system accidents. Part 2: IDAC performance influencing factors model," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 92(8), pages 1014-1040.
    8. Chang, Y.H.J. & Mosleh, A., 2007. "Cognitive modeling and dynamic probabilistic simulation of operating crew response to complex system accidents. Part 4: IDAC causal model of operator problem-solving response," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 92(8), pages 1061-1075.
    9. Chang, Y.H.J. & Mosleh, A., 2007. "Cognitive modeling and dynamic probabilistic simulation of operating crew response to complex system accidents," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 92(8), pages 997-1013.
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    Cited by:

    1. Bing Wu & Xinping Yan & Yang Wang & C. Guedes Soares, 2017. "An Evidential Reasoning‐Based CREAM to Human Reliability Analysis in Maritime Accident Process," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 37(10), pages 1936-1957, October.
    2. Bolton, Matthew L. & Molinaro, Kylie A. & Houser, Adam M., 2019. "A formal method for assessing the impact of task-based erroneous human behavior on system safety," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 188(C), pages 168-180.
    3. Wu, Bing & Yip, Tsz Leung & Yan, Xinping & Guedes Soares, C., 2022. "Review of techniques and challenges of human and organizational factors analysis in maritime transportation," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 219(C).
    4. Montewka, Jakub & Manderbacka, Teemu & Ruponen, Pekka & Tompuri, Markus & Gil, Mateusz & Hirdaris, Spyros, 2022. "Accident susceptibility index for a passenger ship-a framework and case study," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 218(PA).

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