IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/reensy/v194y2020ics0951832017310311.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Development of a quantitative Bayesian network mapping objective factors to subjective performance shaping factor evaluations: An example using student operators in a digital nuclear power plant simulator

Author

Listed:
  • Shirley, Rachel Benish
  • Smidts, Carol
  • Zhao, Yunfei

Abstract

Traditional human reliability analysis methods consist of two main steps: assigning values for performance shaping factors (PSFs), and assessing human error probability (HEP) based on PSF values. Both steps rely on expert judgment. Considerable advances have been made in reducing reliance on expert judgment for HEP assessment by incorporating human performance data from various sources (e.g., simulator experiments); however, little has been done to reduce reliance on expert judgment for PSF assignment. This paper introduces a data-driven approach for assessing PSFs in Nuclear Power Plants (NPPs) based on contextual information. The research illustrates how to develop a Bayesian PSF network using data collected from student operators in a NPP simulator. The approach starts with a baseline PSF model that calculates PSF values from context information during an accident scenario. Then, a Bayesian model is developed to link the baseline model to the Subjective PSFs. Two additional factors are included: simulator bias and context information. Results and analysis include variation between the results of the proposed model and the training dataset, and the significance of each element in the model. The proposed approach reduces the reliance of PSF assignment on expert judgment and is particularly suitable for dynamic human reliability analysis.

Suggested Citation

  • Shirley, Rachel Benish & Smidts, Carol & Zhao, Yunfei, 2020. "Development of a quantitative Bayesian network mapping objective factors to subjective performance shaping factor evaluations: An example using student operators in a digital nuclear power plant simul," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 194(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:reensy:v:194:y:2020:i:c:s0951832017310311
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ress.2019.03.023
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0951832017310311
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.ress.2019.03.023?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Musharraf, Mashrura & Smith, Jennifer & Khan, Faisal & Veitch, Brian & MacKinnon, Scott, 2016. "Assessing offshore emergency evacuation behavior in a virtual environment using a Bayesian Network approach," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 152(C), pages 28-37.
    2. James Chang, Y. & Bley, Dennis & Criscione, Lawrence & Kirwan, Barry & Mosleh, Ali & Madary, Todd & Nowell, Rodney & Richards, Robert & Roth, Emilie M. & Sieben, Scott & Zoulis, Antonios, 2014. "The SACADA database for human reliability and human performance," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 125(C), pages 117-133.
    3. Chang, Y.H.J. & Mosleh, A., 2007. "Cognitive modeling and dynamic probabilistic simulation of operating crew response to complex system accidents," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 92(8), pages 1041-1060.
    4. Ekanem, Nsimah J. & Mosleh, Ali & Shen, Song-Hua, 2016. "Phoenix – A model-based Human Reliability Analysis methodology: Qualitative Analysis Procedure," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 145(C), pages 301-315.
    5. Park, Jinkyun & Jung, Wondea, 2007. "OPERA—a human performance database under simulated emergencies of nuclear power plants," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 92(4), pages 503-519.
    6. David J. Spiegelhalter & Nicola G. Best & Bradley P. Carlin & Angelika Van Der Linde, 2002. "Bayesian measures of model complexity and fit," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 64(4), pages 583-639, October.
    7. Chang, Y.H.J. & Mosleh, A., 2007. "Cognitive modeling and dynamic probabilistic simulation of operating crew response to complex system accidents," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 92(8), pages 1076-1101.
    8. Peng Liu & Zhizhong Li, 2014. "Human Error Data Collection and Comparison with Predictions by SPAR‐H," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 34(9), pages 1706-1719, September.
    9. Chang, Y.H.J. & Mosleh, A., 2007. "Cognitive modeling and dynamic probabilistic simulation of operating crew response to complex system accidents. Part 2: IDAC performance influencing factors model," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 92(8), pages 1014-1040.
    10. Musharraf, Mashrura & Bradbury-Squires, David & Khan, Faisal & Veitch, Brian & MacKinnon, Scott & Imtiaz, Syed, 2014. "A virtual experimental technique for data collection for a Bayesian network approach to human reliability analysis," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 132(C), pages 1-8.
    11. Chang, Y.H.J. & Mosleh, A., 2007. "Cognitive modeling and dynamic probabilistic simulation of operating crew response to complex system accidents. Part 4: IDAC causal model of operator problem-solving response," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 92(8), pages 1061-1075.
    12. Chang, Y.H.J. & Mosleh, A., 2007. "Cognitive modeling and dynamic probabilistic simulation of operating crew response to complex system accidents," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 92(8), pages 997-1013.
    13. Groth, Katrina M. & Smith, Curtis L. & Swiler, Laura P., 2014. "A Bayesian method for using simulator data to enhance human error probabilities assigned by existing HRA methods," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 128(C), pages 32-40.
    14. Groth, Katrina M. & Mosleh, Ali, 2012. "A data-informed PIF hierarchy for model-based Human Reliability Analysis," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 108(C), pages 154-174.
    15. Kim, Yochan & Park, Jinkyun & Jung, Wondea & Choi, Sun Yeong & Kim, Seunghwan, 2018. "Estimating the quantitative relation between PSFs and HEPs from full-scope simulator data," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 173(C), pages 12-22.
    16. Shirley, Rachel Benish & Smidts, Carol, 2018. "Bridging the simulator gap: Measuring motivational bias in digital nuclear power plant environments," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 177(C), pages 191-209.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Zhao, Yunfei & Smidts, Carol, 2021. "CMS-BN: A cognitive modeling and simulation environment for human performance assessment, part 2 — Application," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 213(C).
    2. Wang, Zengkai & Zeng, Shengkui & Guo, Jianbin & Che, Haiyang, 2021. "A Bayesian network for reliability assessment of man-machine phased-mission system considering the phase dependencies of human cognitive error," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 207(C).
    3. Zhou, Jian-Lan & Lei, Yi, 2020. "A slim integrated with empirical study and network analysis for human error assessment in the railway driving process," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 204(C).
    4. Zhao, Yunfei, 2022. "A Bayesian approach to comparing human reliability analysis methods using human performance data," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 219(C).
    5. Zhao, Yunfei & Smidts, Carol, 2021. "CMS-BN: A cognitive modeling and simulation environment for human performance assessment, part 1 — methodology," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 213(C).
    6. Zhou, Jian-Lan & Yu, Ze-Tai & Xiao, Ren-Bin, 2022. "A large-scale group Success Likelihood Index Method to estimate human error probabilities in the railway driving process," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 228(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Zarei, Esmaeil & Khan, Faisal & Abbassi, Rouzbeh, 2021. "Importance of human reliability in process operation: A critical analysis," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 211(C).
    2. Groth, Katrina M. & Smith, Reuel & Moradi, Ramin, 2019. "A hybrid algorithm for developing third generation HRA methods using simulator data, causal models, and cognitive science," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 191(C).
    3. Li, Jue & Li, Heng & Wang, Fan & Cheng, Andy S.K. & Yang, Xincong & Wang, Hongwei, 2021. "Proactive analysis of construction equipment operators’ hazard perception error based on cognitive modeling and a dynamic Bayesian network," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 205(C).
    4. Zhao, Yunfei & Smidts, Carol, 2021. "CMS-BN: A cognitive modeling and simulation environment for human performance assessment, part 1 — methodology," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 213(C).
    5. Jung, Wondea & Park, Jinkyun & Kim, Yochan & Choi, Sun Yeong & Kim, Seunghwan, 2020. "HuREX – A framework of HRA data collection from simulators in nuclear power plants," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 194(C).
    6. Liu, Jianqiao & Zou, Yanhua & Wang, Wei & Zhang, Li & Liu, Xueyang & Ding, Qianqiao & Qin, Zhuomin & ÄŒepin, Marko, 2021. "Analysis of dependencies among performance shaping factors in human reliability analysis based on a system dynamics approach," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 215(C).
    7. Wang, Lijing & Wang, Yanlong & Chen, Yingchun & Pan, Xing & Zhang, Wenjin & Zhu, Yanzhi, 2020. "Methodology for assessing dependencies between factors influencing airline pilot performance reliability: A case of taxiing tasks," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 89(C).
    8. Al-Douri, Ahmad & Levine, Camille S. & Groth, Katrina M., 2023. "Identifying human failure events (HFEs) for external hazard probabilistic risk assessment," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 235(C).
    9. Zhao, Yunfei & Smidts, Carol, 2021. "CMS-BN: A cognitive modeling and simulation environment for human performance assessment, part 2 — Application," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 213(C).
    10. Zhang, Xiaoge & Mahadevan, Sankaran & Lau, Nathan & Weinger, Matthew B., 2020. "Multi-source information fusion to assess control room operator performance," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 194(C).
    11. Ekanem, Nsimah J. & Mosleh, Ali & Shen, Song-Hua, 2016. "Phoenix – A model-based Human Reliability Analysis methodology: Qualitative Analysis Procedure," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 145(C), pages 301-315.
    12. Abílio Ramos, M. & López Droguett, E. & Mosleh, A. & Das Chagas Moura, M., 2020. "A human reliability analysis methodology for oil refineries and petrochemical plants operation: Phoenix-PRO qualitative framework," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 193(C).
    13. Kim, Yochan & Park, Jinkyun & Jung, Wondea, 2017. "A classification scheme of erroneous behaviors for human error probability estimations based on simulator data," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 163(C), pages 1-13.
    14. Maturana, Marcos Coelho & Martins, Marcelo Ramos & Frutuoso e Melo, Paulo Fernando Ferreira, 2021. "Application of a quantitative human performance model to the operational procedure design of a fuel storage pool cooling system," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 216(C).
    15. Porthin, Markus & Liinasuo, Marja & Kling, Terhi, 2020. "Effects of digitalization of nuclear power plant control rooms on human reliability analysis – A review," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 194(C).
    16. Abrishami, Shokoufeh & Khakzad, Nima & Hosseini, Seyed Mahmoud & van Gelder, Pieter, 2020. "BN-SLIM: A Bayesian Network methodology for human reliability assessment based on Success Likelihood Index Method (SLIM)," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 193(C).
    17. Mkrtchyan, L. & Podofillini, L. & Dang, V.N., 2015. "Bayesian belief networks for human reliability analysis: A review of applications and gaps," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 139(C), pages 1-16.
    18. Wang, Zengkai & Zeng, Shengkui & Guo, Jianbin & Che, Haiyang, 2021. "A Bayesian network for reliability assessment of man-machine phased-mission system considering the phase dependencies of human cognitive error," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 207(C).
    19. Wu, Bing & Yip, Tsz Leung & Yan, Xinping & Guedes Soares, C., 2022. "Review of techniques and challenges of human and organizational factors analysis in maritime transportation," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 219(C).
    20. Vaurio, Jussi K., 2009. "Human factors, human reliability and risk assessment in license renewal of a nuclear power plant," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 94(11), pages 1818-1826.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:reensy:v:194:y:2020:i:c:s0951832017310311. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.journals.elsevier.com/reliability-engineering-and-system-safety .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.