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More COPS, less crime

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  • Mello, Steven

Abstract

I exploit a natural experiment to estimate the causal effect of police on crime. The American Recovery and Reinvestment Act increased funding for the Community Oriented Policing Services (COPS) hiring grant program from less than $20 million over 2005–2008 to $1 billion in 2009. Hiring grants distributed in 2009 were allocated according to an application score cutoff rule, and I leverage quasi-random variation in grant receipt by comparing the change over time in police and crimes for cities above and below the threshold in a difference-in-differences framework. Relative to low-scoring cities, those above the cutoff experience increases in police of about 3.2% and declines in victimization cost-weighted crime of about 3.5% following the distribution of hiring grants. The effects are driven by large and statistically significant effects of police on robbery, larceny, and auto theft, with suggestive evidence that police reduce murders as well. Crime reductions associated with additional police were more pronounced in areas most affected by the Great Recession. The results highlight that fiscal support to local governments for crime prevention may offer large returns, especially during bad macroeconomic times.

Suggested Citation

  • Mello, Steven, 2019. "More COPS, less crime," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 172(C), pages 174-200.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:pubeco:v:172:y:2019:i:c:p:174-200
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jpubeco.2018.12.003
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    Citations

    RePEc Biblio mentions

    As found on the RePEc Biblio, the curated bibliography for Economics:
    1. > Law and Economics > Economics of Crime > Crime Prevention > Police Funding > Impact

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    Cited by:

    1. Blesse, Sebastian & Diegmann, André, 2022. "The place-based effects of police stations on crime: Evidence from station closures," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 207(C).
    2. Lepage, Louis-Pierre, 2020. "Are criminals strategic? Offender responses to drug sentencing cutoffs," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(C).
    3. Anna Bindler & Randi Hjalmarsson, 2021. "The Impact of the First Professional Police Forces on Crime [State Capacity and Economic Development: A Network Approach]," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 19(6), pages 3063-3103.
    4. Nils Braakmann, 2022. "Does stop and search reduce crime? Evidence from street‐level data and a surge in operations following a high‐profile crime," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 185(3), pages 1370-1397, July.
    5. Aaron Chalfin & Benjamin Hansen & Rachel Ryley, 2019. "The Minimum Legal Drinking Age and Crime Victimization," NBER Working Papers 26051, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Flynn, Patrick & Smith, Tucker, 2022. "Rivers, lakes and revenue streams: The heterogeneous effects of Clean Water Act grants on local spending," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 212(C).
    7. Blesse, Sebastian & Diegmann, André, 2019. "Police reorganization and crime: Evidence from police station closures," ZEW Discussion Papers 18-044, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research, revised 2019.
    8. Cho, Sungwoo & Gonçalves, Felipe & Weisburst, Emily, 2021. "Do Police Make Too Many Arrests? The Effect of Enforcement Pullbacks on Crime," IZA Discussion Papers 14907, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    9. Gregory De & Marina Toger & Sarit Weisburd, 2023. "Police Response Time and Injury Outcomes," The Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 133(654), pages 2147-2177.
    10. David Bjerk, 2022. "Does greater police funding help catch more murderers?," Journal of Empirical Legal Studies, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 19(3), pages 528-559, September.
    11. Kang, Songman & Kim, Duol, 2022. "Focus vs. spread: Police box consolidation and its impact on crime in Korea," International Review of Law and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(C).
    12. Jha, Chandan Kumar & Joshi, Swarup, 2023. "Municipal bankruptcies and crime," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 89(C).
    13. Gerard Torrats-Espinosa, 2020. "Crime and Inequality in Academic Achievement Across School Districts in the United States," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 57(1), pages 123-145, February.
    14. Eric P. Baumer & Min Xie, 2023. "Federal-Local Partnerships on Immigration Law Enforcement: Are the Policies Effective in Reducing Violent Victimization?," Working Papers 23-18, Center for Economic Studies, U.S. Census Bureau.
    15. Jacob Vogler, 2020. "Access to Healthcare and Criminal Behavior: Evidence from the ACA Medicaid Expansions," Journal of Policy Analysis and Management, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(4), pages 1166-1213, September.
    16. Gonzalez, Robert & Komisarow, Sarah, 2020. "Community monitoring and crime: Evidence from Chicago's Safe Passage Program," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 191(C).
    17. Lovett, Nicholas & Xue, Yuhan, 2022. "Rare homicides, criminal behavior, and the returns to police labor," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 194(C), pages 172-195.
    18. Desmond Ang, 2021. "The Effects of Police Violence on Inner-City Students," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 136(1), pages 115-168.
    19. Nicolò Barbieri & Ugo Rizzo, 2023. "The impact of crime on firm entry," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 63(2), pages 446-469, March.
    20. Aaron Chalfin & Michael LaForest & Jacob Kaplan, 2021. "Can Precision Policing Reduce Gun Violence? Evidence from “Gang Takedowns” in New York City," Journal of Policy Analysis and Management, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 40(4), pages 1047-1082, September.
    21. Matthew C. Harris & Yinan Liu & Ian McCarthy, 2019. "Capacity Constraints and the Provision of Public Services: The Case of Workers in Public Health Clinics," NBER Working Papers 25706, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Police; Crime; Deterrence;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • K42 - Law and Economics - - Legal Procedure, the Legal System, and Illegal Behavior - - - Illegal Behavior and the Enforcement of Law
    • H76 - Public Economics - - State and Local Government; Intergovernmental Relations - - - Other Expenditure Categories

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