IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/phsmap/v427y2015icp26-33.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Testing for detailed balance in a financial market

Author

Listed:
  • Fiebig, H.R.
  • Musgrove, D.P.

Abstract

We test a historical price–time series in a financial market (the NASDAQ 100 index) for a statistical property known as detailed balance. The presence of detailed balance would imply that the market can be modeled by a stochastic process based on a Markov chain, thus leading to equilibrium. In economic terms, a positive outcome of the test would support the efficient market hypothesis, a cornerstone of neo-classical economic theory. In contrast to the usage in prevalent economic theory the term equilibrium here is tied to the returns, rather than the price–time series. The test is based on an action functional S constructed from the elements of the detailed balance condition and the historical data set, and then analyzing S by means of simulated annealing. Checks are performed to verify the validity of the analysis method. We discuss the outcome of this analysis.

Suggested Citation

  • Fiebig, H.R. & Musgrove, D.P., 2015. "Testing for detailed balance in a financial market," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 427(C), pages 26-33.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:phsmap:v:427:y:2015:i:c:p:26-33
    DOI: 10.1016/j.physa.2015.01.055
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0378437115000746
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only. Journal offers the option of making the article available online on Science direct for a fee of $3,000
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.physa.2015.01.055?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Dupoyet, B. & Fiebig, H.R. & Musgrove, D.P., 2010. "Gauge invariant lattice quantum field theory: Implications for statistical properties of high frequency financial markets," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 389(1), pages 107-116.
    2. Dupoyet, B. & Fiebig, H.R. & Musgrove, D.P., 2011. "Replicating financial market dynamics with a simple self-organized critical lattice model," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 390(18), pages 3120-3135.
    3. McCauley,Joseph L., 2009. "Dynamics of Markets," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521429627.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Sandro Claudio Lera & Didier Sornette, 2015. "Currency target zone modeling: An interplay between physics and economics," Papers 1508.04754, arXiv.org, revised Oct 2015.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Dupoyet, B. & Fiebig, H.R. & Musgrove, D.P., 2012. "Arbitrage-free self-organizing markets with GARCH properties: Generating them in the lab with a lattice model," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 391(18), pages 4350-4363.
    2. Rudolf Fiebig & David Musgrove, 2014. "Testing for Detailed Balance in a Financial Market," Papers 1403.3584, arXiv.org.
    3. Giovanni Paolinelli & Gianni Arioli, 2018. "A path integral based model for stocks and order dynamics," Papers 1803.07904, arXiv.org.
    4. Paolinelli, Giovanni & Arioli, Gianni, 2019. "A model for stocks dynamics based on a non-Gaussian path integral," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 517(C), pages 499-514.
    5. B. Dupoyet & H. R. Fiebig & D. P. Musgrove, 2011. "Arbitrage-free Self-organizing Markets with GARCH Properties: Generating them in the Lab with a Lattice Model," Papers 1112.2379, arXiv.org.
    6. Paolinelli, Giovanni & Arioli, Gianni, 2018. "A path integral based model for stocks and order dynamics," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 510(C), pages 387-399.
    7. Giovanni Paolinelli & Gianni Arioli, 2018. "A model for stocks dynamics based on a non-Gaussian path integral," Papers 1809.01342, arXiv.org, revised Oct 2018.
    8. Albers, Scott & Albers, Andrew, 2015. "On the mathematic prediction of economic and social crises: toward a harmonic interpretation of the Kondratiev Wave, revised and corrected, with a new appendix, February 12, 2015," MPRA Paper 62118, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Mathieu Moslonka-Lefebvre & Herv'e Monod & Christopher A. Gilligan & Elisabeta Vergu & Jo~ao A. N. Filipe, 2013. "Epidemics in markets with trade friction and imperfect transactions," Papers 1310.6320, arXiv.org.
    10. Kristoufek, Ladislav & Vošvrda, Miloslav S., 2016. "Herding, minority game, market clearing and efficient markets in a simple spin model framework," FinMaP-Working Papers 68, Collaborative EU Project FinMaP - Financial Distortions and Macroeconomic Performance: Expectations, Constraints and Interaction of Agents.
    11. Albers, Scott & Albers, Andrew L., 2012. "On the mathematic prediction of economic and social crises: toward a harmonic interpretation of the Kondratiev wave," MPRA Paper 37771, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Nicos Scordis, 2011. "The Morality of Risk Modeling," Journal of Business Ethics, Springer, vol. 103(1), pages 7-16, April.
    13. Jovanovic, Franck & Schinckus, Christophe, 2017. "Econophysics and Financial Economics: An Emerging Dialogue," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780190205034, Decembrie.
    14. Igor Halperin, 2020. "Non-Equilibrium Skewness, Market Crises, and Option Pricing: Non-Linear Langevin Model of Markets with Supersymmetry," Papers 2011.01417, arXiv.org, revised Dec 2021.
    15. Fernando F. Ferreira & A. Christian Silva & Ju-Yi Yen, 2014. "Information ratio analysis of momentum strategies," Papers 1402.3030, arXiv.org, revised Jul 2014.
    16. Dupoyet, B. & Fiebig, H.R. & Musgrove, D.P., 2011. "Replicating financial market dynamics with a simple self-organized critical lattice model," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 390(18), pages 3120-3135.
    17. Ellis Scharfenaker, 2022. "Statistical Equilibrium Methods In Analytical Political Economy," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 36(2), pages 276-309, April.
    18. B. Dupoyet & H. R. Fiebig & D. P. Musgrove, 2010. "Replicating financial market dynamics with a simple self-organized critical lattice model," Papers 1010.4831, arXiv.org.
    19. Albers, Scott, 2012. "Predicting crises: Five essays on the mathematic prediction of economic and social crises," MPRA Paper 43484, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    20. Vinogradov, Dmitry V., 2012. "Arbitrary truncated Levy flight: Asymmetrical truncation and high-order correlations," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 391(22), pages 5584-5597.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:phsmap:v:427:y:2015:i:c:p:26-33. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.journals.elsevier.com/physica-a-statistical-mechpplications/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.