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An opinion dynamics model for the diffusion of innovations

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  • Martins, André C.R.
  • Pereira, Carlos de B.
  • Vicente, Renato
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    Abstract

    We study the dynamics of the adoption of new products by agents with continuous opinions and discrete actions (CODA). The model is such that the refusal in adopting a new idea or product is increasingly weighted by neighbor agents as evidence against the product. Under these rules, we study the distribution of adoption times and the final proportion of adopters in the population. We compare the cases where initial adopters are clustered to the case where they are randomly scattered around the social network and investigate small world effects on the final proportion of adopters. The model predicts a fat tailed distribution for late adopters which is verified by empirical data.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications.

    Volume (Year): 388 (2009)
    Issue (Month): 15 ()
    Pages: 3225-3232

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    Handle: RePEc:eee:phsmap:v:388:y:2009:i:15:p:3225-3232

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    Web page: http://www.journals.elsevier.com/physica-a-statistical-mechpplications/

    Related research

    Keywords: Opinion dynamics; Innovation diffusion; Marketing; Sociophysics;

    References

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    1. Diemo Urbig, 2003. "Attitude Dynamics with Limited Verbalisation Capabilities," Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation, Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation, vol. 6(1), pages 2.
    2. Q. Michard & J.-P. Bouchaud, 2005. "Theory of collective opinion shifts: from smooth trends to abrupt swings," The European Physical Journal B - Condensed Matter and Complex Systems, Springer, vol. 47(1), pages 151-159, 09.
    3. Rainer Hegselmann & Ulrich Krause, 2002. "Opinion Dynamics and Bounded Confidence Models, Analysis and Simulation," Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation, Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation, vol. 5(3), pages 2.
    4. Galam, Serge & Vignes, Annick, 2005. "Fashion, novelty and optimality: an application from Physics," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 351(2), pages 605-619.
    5. Poulsen, Peter Bo & Adamsen, Sven & Vondeling, Hindrik & Jorgensen, Torben, 1998. "Diffusion of laparoscopic technologies in Denmark," Health Policy, Elsevier, vol. 45(2), pages 149-167, August.
    6. Frank M. Bass, 1969. "A New Product Growth for Model Consumer Durables," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 15(5), pages 215-227, January.
    7. Quentin Michard & Jean-Philippe Bouchaud, 2005. "Theory of collective opinion shifts: from smooth trends to abrupt swings," Science & Finance (CFM) working paper archive 500060, Science & Finance, Capital Fund Management.
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    Cited by:
    1. Si, Xia-Meng & Liu, Yun & Xiong, Fei & Zhang, Yan-Chao & Ding, Fei & Cheng, Hui, 2010. "Effects of selective attention on continuous opinions and discrete decisions," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 389(18), pages 3711-3719.
    2. Galam, Serge, 2011. "Collective beliefs versus individual inflexibility: The unavoidable biases of a public debate," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 390(17), pages 3036-3054.
    3. Biondi, Yuri & Giannoccolo, Pierpaolo & Galam, Serge, 2012. "Formation of share market prices under heterogeneous beliefs and common knowledge," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 391(22), pages 5532-5545.
    4. C.R. Martins, André, 2014. "Discrete opinion models as a limit case of the CODA model," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 395(C), pages 352-357.

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