IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/phsmap/v335y2004i1p164-182.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The conundrum of stock versus bond prices

Author

Listed:
  • Maslov, Sergei
  • Roehner, Bertrand M

Abstract

In a general way, stock and bond prices do not display any significant correlation. Yet, if we concentrate our attention on the specific episodes marked by a crash followed by a rebound, then we observe that stock prices have a strong connection with interest rates on one hand, and with bond yield spreads on the other hand. That second relationship is particularly stable in the course of time having been observed for over 140 years. Throughout the paper we use a quasi-experimental approach. By observing how markets respond to well-defined exogenous shocks (such as the shock of 11 September 2001) we are able to determine how investors organize their “flight to safety”: which safe haven they select, how long their collective panic lasts, and so on. As rebounds come to an end the correlation of stock and bond prices fades away, a clear sign that the collective behavior of investors loses some of its coherence; this observation can be used as an objective criterion for assessing the end of a market rebound. Based on the behavior of investors, we introduce a distinction between “genuine stock market rallies”, as opposed to spurious rallies such as those brought about by the buyback programs implemented by large companies. The paper ends with a discussion of testable predictions.

Suggested Citation

  • Maslov, Sergei & Roehner, Bertrand M, 2004. "The conundrum of stock versus bond prices," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 335(1), pages 164-182.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:phsmap:v:335:y:2004:i:1:p:164-182
    DOI: 10.1016/j.physa.2003.11.031
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0378437103011166
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only. Journal offers the option of making the article available online on Science direct for a fee of $3,000
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.physa.2003.11.031?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. R. Glenn Hubbard, 1991. "Financial Markets and Financial Crises," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number glen91-1, July.
    2. Maslov, Sergei & Mills, Mark, 2001. "Price fluctuations from the order book perspective—empirical facts and a simple model," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 299(1), pages 234-246.
    3. B. M. Roehner, 2000. "Identifying The Bottom Line After A Stock Market Crash," International Journal of Modern Physics C (IJMPC), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 11(01), pages 91-100.
    4. Roehner,Bertrand M., 2002. "Patterns of Speculation," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521802635.
    5. Sergei Maslov & Mark Mills, 2001. "Price fluctuations from the order book perspective - empirical facts and a simple model," Papers cond-mat/0102518, arXiv.org.
    6. Study group on fixed income markets, 2001. "The changing shape of fixed income markets," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), The changing shape of fixed income markets: a collection of studies by central bank economists, volume 5, pages 1-43, Bank for International Settlements.
    7. Frederic S. Mishkin, 1991. "Asymmetric Information and Financial Crises: A Historical Perspective," NBER Chapters, in: Financial Markets and Financial Crises, pages 69-108, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. de Bondt, Gabe, 2002. "Euro area corporate debt securities market: first empirical evidence," Working Paper Series 164, European Central Bank.
    9. A. Johansen & D. Sornette, 1999. "Financial ``Anti-Bubbles'': Log-Periodicity in Gold and Nikkei collapses," Papers cond-mat/9901268, arXiv.org.
    10. the Study group on fixed income markets, 2001. "The changing shape of fixed income markets," BIS Working Papers 104, Bank for International Settlements.
    11. Masazumi Hattori & Koji Koyama & Tatsuya Yonetani, 2001. "Analysis of credit spread in Japan's corporate bond market," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), The changing shape of fixed income markets: a collection of studies by central bank economists, volume 5, pages 113-146, Bank for International Settlements.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Mihaela NICOLAU, 2010. "Financial Markets Interactions between Economic Theory and Practice," Economics and Applied Informatics, "Dunarea de Jos" University of Galati, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, issue 2, pages 27-36.
    2. Bertrand M. Roehner, 2004. "Stock markets are not what we think they are: the key roles of cross-ownership and corporate treasury stock," Papers cond-mat/0406704, arXiv.org.
    3. Misheck Mutize & Sean J. Gossel, 2019. "Sovereign Credit Rating Announcement Effects on Foreign Currency Denominated Bond and Equity Markets in Africa," Journal of African Business, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(1), pages 135-152, January.
    4. Roehner, Bertrand M., 2005. "Stock markets are not what we think they are: the key roles of cross-ownership and corporate treasury stock," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 347(C), pages 613-625.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Anirban Chakraborti & Ioane Muni Toke & Marco Patriarca & Frederic Abergel, 2011. "Econophysics review: I. Empirical facts," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(7), pages 991-1012.
    2. Gabe de Bondt, 2004. "The balance sheet channel of monetary policy: first empirical evidence for the euro area corporate bond market," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 9(3), pages 219-228.
    3. de Bondt, Gabe & Marqués-Ibáñez, David, 2004. "The high-yield segment of the corporate bond market: a diffusion modelling approach for the United States, the United Kingdom and the euro area," Working Paper Series 313, European Central Bank.
    4. Anirban Chakraborti & Ioane Muni Toke & Marco Patriarca & Frederic Abergel, 2011. "Econophysics review: II. Agent-based models," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(7), pages 1013-1041.
    5. Anirban Chakraborti & Ioane Muni Toke & Marco Patriarca & Frédéric Abergel, 2011. "Econophysics review: I. Empirical facts," Post-Print hal-00621058, HAL.
    6. Lallouache, Mehdi & Abergel, Frédéric, 2014. "Tick size reduction and price clustering in a FX order book," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 416(C), pages 488-498.
    7. Botzen, W.J. Wouter & Marey, Philip S., 2010. "Did the ECB respond to the stock market before the crisis?," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 303-322, May.
    8. Lawrence Sáez & Xianwen Shi, 2004. "Liquidity Pools, Risk Sharing, and Financial Contagion," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer;Western Finance Association, vol. 25(1), pages 5-23, February.
    9. Hwang, Hae-shin & Jindapon, Paan, 2020. "Market making with convex quotes," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 37(C).
    10. Bank for International Settlements, 2003. "Guide to the international financial statistics," BIS Papers, Bank for International Settlements, number 14.
    11. Raquel de F. Oliveira & Rafael F. Schiozer & Lucas A. B. de C. Barros, 2011. "Too Big to Fail Perception by Depositors: an empirical investigation," Working Papers Series 233, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    12. Sofiene El Aoud & Frédéric Abergel, 2015. "A stochastic control approach for options market making," Post-Print hal-01061852, HAL.
    13. Délèze, Frédéric & Korkeamäki, Timo, 2018. "Interest rate risk management with debt issues: Evidence from Europe," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 1-11.
    14. Gertler, Mark & Lown, Cara S, 1999. "The Information in the High-Yield Bond Spread for the Business Cycle: Evidence and Some Implications," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press and Oxford Review of Economic Policy Limited, vol. 15(3), pages 132-150, Autumn.
    15. Mark A. Carlson, 2008. "Alternatives for distressed banks and the panics of the Great Depression," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2008-07, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    16. Cai, Jun & Cheung, Yan-Leung & Goyal, Vidhan K., 1999. "Bank monitoring and the maturity structure of Japanese corporate debt issues," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 7(3-4), pages 229-249, August.
    17. Michael D. Bordo & Michael J. Dueker & David C. Wheelock, 2002. "Aggregate Price Shocks and Financial Instability: A Historical Analysis," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 40(4), pages 521-538, October.
    18. Guillermo A. Calvo & Frederic S. Mishkin, 2003. "The Mirage of Exchange Rate Regimes for Emerging Market Countries," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 17(4), pages 99-118, Fall.
    19. Charles W. Calomiris, 2008. "The subprime turmoil: what’s old, what’s new, and what’s next," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 19-110.
    20. Gu, Gao-Feng & Chen, Wei & Zhou, Wei-Xing, 2008. "Empirical shape function of limit-order books in the Chinese stock market," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 387(21), pages 5182-5188.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:phsmap:v:335:y:2004:i:1:p:164-182. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.journals.elsevier.com/physica-a-statistical-mechpplications/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.