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More stylized facts of financial markets: leverage effect and downside correlations

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  • Bouchaud, Jean-Philippe
  • Potters, Marc
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    Abstract

    We discuss two more universal features of stock markets: the so-called leverage effect (a negative correlation between past returns and future volatility), and the increased downside correlations. For individual stocks, the leverage correlation can be rationalized in terms of a new ‘retarded’ model which interpolates between a purely additive and a purely multiplicative stochastic process. For stock indices a specific market panic phenomenon seems to be necessary to account for the observed amplitude of the effect. As for the increase of correlations in highly volatile periods, we investigate how much of this effect can be explained within a simple non-Gaussian one-factor description with time independent correlations. In particular, this one-factor model can explain the level and asymmetry of empirical exceedance correlations, which reflects the fat-tailed and negatively skewed distribution of market returns.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications.

    Volume (Year): 299 (2001)
    Issue (Month): 1 ()
    Pages: 60-70

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    Handle: RePEc:eee:phsmap:v:299:y:2001:i:1:p:60-70

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    Web page: http://www.journals.elsevier.com/physica-a-statistical-mechpplications/

    Related research

    Keywords: Empirical finance; Price-volatility correlations; Equity cross-correlations;

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    Cited by:
    1. Zoltan Eisler & Janos Kertesz, 2004. "Multifractal model of asset returns with leverage effect," Papers cond-mat/0403767, arXiv.org, revised May 2004.
    2. Gu, Gao-Feng & Zhou, Wei-Xing, 2007. "Statistical properties of daily ensemble variables in the Chinese stock markets," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 383(2), pages 497-506.
    3. Florescu, Ionuţ & Pãsãricã, Cristian Gabriel, 2009. "A study about the existence of the leverage effect in stochastic volatility models," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 388(4), pages 419-432.
    4. Goswami, B. & Ambika, G. & Marwan, N. & Kurths, J., 2012. "On interrelations of recurrences and connectivity trends between stock indices," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 391(18), pages 4364-4376.
    5. Vicente Medina Martínez & Ángel Pardo Tornero, 2012. "Stylized facts of CO2 returns," Working Papers. Serie AD 2012-14, Instituto Valenciano de Investigaciones Económicas, S.A. (Ivie).
    6. Wei-Xing Zhou, 2007. "Universal price impact functions of individual trades in an order-driven market," Papers 0708.3198, arXiv.org, revised Apr 2008.

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