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Difference of opinion and the cross-section of equity returns: Australian evidence

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  • Gharghori, Philip
  • See, Quin
  • Veeraraghavan, Madhu
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    Abstract

    This paper examines the relationship between difference of opinion among investors and the return on Australian equities. The paper is the first to employ dispersion in analysts' earnings forecasts, abnormal turnover and idiosyncratic volatility as proxies for difference of opinion. We document a negative relationship between difference of opinion and stock returns when dispersion in analysts' forecasts and idiosyncratic volatility are employed as proxies. This result provides support for Miller's (1977) model and is consistent with the findings of Diether et al. (2002). In contrast, we find mixed results when using abnormal turnover to proxy difference of opinion.

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    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0927538X11000199
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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Pacific-Basin Finance Journal.

    Volume (Year): 19 (2011)
    Issue (Month): 4 (September)
    Pages: 435-446

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    Handle: RePEc:eee:pacfin:v:19:y:2011:i:4:p:435-446

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    Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/pacfin

    Related research

    Keywords: Difference of opinion Analysts' earnings forecasts Abnormal turnover Idiosyncratic volatility;

    References

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    1. Chan, Louis K C & Hamao, Yasushi & Lakonishok, Josef, 1991. " Fundamentals and Stock Returns in Japan," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(5), pages 1739-64, December.
    2. Andrew Ang & Robert J. Hodrick & Yuhang Xing & Xiaoyan Zhang, 2008. "High Idiosyncratic Volatility and Low Returns: International and Further U.S. Evidence," NBER Working Papers 13739, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Harrison Hong & Terence Lim & Jeremy C. Stein, 1998. "Bad News Travels Slowly: Size, Analyst Coverage and the Profitability of Momentum Strategies," NBER Working Papers 6553, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Basu, Sanjoy, 1983. "The relationship between earnings' yield, market value and return for NYSE common stocks : Further evidence," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(1), pages 129-156, June.
    5. Jon A. Garfinkel & Jonathan Sokobin, 2006. "Volume, Opinion Divergence, and Returns: A Study of Post-Earnings Announcement Drift," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 44(1), pages 85-112, 03.
    6. Diamond, Douglas W. & Verrecchia, Robert E., 1987. "Constraints on short-selling and asset price adjustment to private information," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 277-311, June.
    7. Carhart, Mark M, 1997. " On Persistence in Mutual Fund Performance," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(1), pages 57-82, March.
    8. Fama, Eugene F & French, Kenneth R, 1996. " Multifactor Explanations of Asset Pricing Anomalies," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 51(1), pages 55-84, March.
    9. Miller, Edward M, 1977. "Risk, Uncertainty, and Divergence of Opinion," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 32(4), pages 1151-68, September.
    10. Philip Gharghori & Ronald Lee & Madhu Veeraraghavan, 2008. "Are stock returns related toshort-term and long-term past returns? Australian evidence," Applied Financial Economics Letters, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 4(4), pages 277-282.
    11. Fama, Eugene F & French, Kenneth R, 1992. " The Cross-Section of Expected Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(2), pages 427-65, June.
    12. Varian, Hal R, 1985. " Divergence of Opinion in Complete Markets: A Note," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 40(1), pages 309-17, March.
    13. Andrew Ang & Robert J. Hodrick & Yuhang Xing & Xiaoyan Zhang, 2006. "The Cross-Section of Volatility and Expected Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 61(1), pages 259-299, 02.
    14. Gharghori, Philip & Chan, Howard & Faff, Robert, 2009. "Default risk and equity returns: Australian evidence," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 17(5), pages 580-593, November.
    15. Ackert, Lucy F & Athanassakos, George, 1997. "Prior Uncertainty, Analyst Bias, and Subsequent Abnormal Returns," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association & Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 20(2), pages 263-73, Summer.
    16. Jegadeesh, Narasimhan & Titman, Sheridan, 1993. " Returns to Buying Winners and Selling Losers: Implications for Stock Market Efficiency," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 48(1), pages 65-91, March.
    17. Berkman, Henk & Dimitrov, Valentin & Jain, Prem C. & Koch, Paul D. & Tice, Sheri, 2009. "Sell on the news: Differences of opinion, short-sales constraints, and returns around earnings announcements," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 92(3), pages 376-399, June.
    18. Bhandari, Laxmi Chand, 1988. " Debt/Equity Ratio and Expected Common Stock Returns: Empirical Evidence," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 43(2), pages 507-28, June.
    19. Fama, Eugene F, 1991. " Efficient Capital Markets: II," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(5), pages 1575-617, December.
    20. Banz, Rolf W., 1981. "The relationship between return and market value of common stocks," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 9(1), pages 3-18, March.
    21. Chan, Howard W. & Faff, Robert W., 2003. "An investigation into the role of liquidity in asset pricing: Australian evidence," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 11(5), pages 555-572, November.
    22. Karl B. Diether & Christopher J. Malloy & Anna Scherbina, 2002. "Differences of Opinion and the Cross Section of Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(5), pages 2113-2141, October.
    23. Fama, Eugene F & MacBeth, James D, 1973. "Risk, Return, and Equilibrium: Empirical Tests," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(3), pages 607-36, May-June.
    24. Andreas Dische, 2002. "Dispersion in Analyst Forecasts and the Profitability of Earnings Momentum Strategies," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 8(2), pages 211-228.
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    Cited by:
    1. Faff, Robert & Gharghori, Philip & Nguyen, Annette, 2014. "Non-nested tests of a GDP-augmented Fama–French model versus a conditional Fama–French model in the Australian stock market," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 627-638.
    2. Chang, Chiao-Yi, 2013. "The market response of insider transferring trades and firm characteristics in Taiwan," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 16(C), pages 131-144.

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