IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/juipol/v73y2021ics0957178721001284.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Forecasting short-term electricity load using hybrid support vector regression with grey catastrophe and random forest modeling

Author

Listed:
  • Fan, Guo-Feng
  • Yu, Meng
  • Dong, Song-Qiao
  • Yeh, Yi-Hsuan
  • Hong, Wei-Chiang

Abstract

This paper develops a novel short-term load forecasting model that hybridizes several machine learning methods, such as support vector regression (SVR), grey catastrophe (GC (1,1)), and random forest (RF) modeling. The modeling process is based on the minimization of both SVR and risk. GC is used to process and extract catastrophe points in the long term to reduce randomness. RF is used to optimize forecasting performance by exploiting its superior optimization capability. The proposed SVR-GC-RF model has higher forecasting accuracy (MAPE values are 6.35% and 6.21%, respectively) using electric loads from Australian-Energy-Market-Operator; it can provide analytical support to forecast electricity consumption accurately.

Suggested Citation

  • Fan, Guo-Feng & Yu, Meng & Dong, Song-Qiao & Yeh, Yi-Hsuan & Hong, Wei-Chiang, 2021. "Forecasting short-term electricity load using hybrid support vector regression with grey catastrophe and random forest modeling," Utilities Policy, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:juipol:v:73:y:2021:i:c:s0957178721001284
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jup.2021.101294
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0957178721001284
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.jup.2021.101294?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Fan, Guo-Feng & Peng, Li-Ling & Hong, Wei-Chiang, 2018. "Short term load forecasting based on phase space reconstruction algorithm and bi-square kernel regression model," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 224(C), pages 13-33.
    2. Yu, Feng & Xu, Xiaozhong, 2014. "A short-term load forecasting model of natural gas based on optimized genetic algorithm and improved BP neural network," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 134(C), pages 102-113.
    3. Bahrami, Saadat & Hooshmand, Rahmat-Allah & Parastegari, Moein, 2014. "Short term electric load forecasting by wavelet transform and grey model improved by PSO (particle swarm optimization) algorithm," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 434-442.
    4. Yang, Youlong & Che, Jinxing & Deng, Chengzhi & Li, Li, 2019. "Sequential grid approach based support vector regression for short-term electric load forecasting," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 238(C), pages 1010-1021.
    5. Zhang, Jinliang & Wei, Yi-Ming & Li, Dezhi & Tan, Zhongfu & Zhou, Jianhua, 2018. "Short term electricity load forecasting using a hybrid model," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 158(C), pages 774-781.
    6. Li, Chuan & Tao, Ying & Ao, Wengang & Yang, Shuai & Bai, Yun, 2018. "Improving forecasting accuracy of daily enterprise electricity consumption using a random forest based on ensemble empirical mode decomposition," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 165(PB), pages 1220-1227.
    7. Li, Yanying & Che, Jinxing & Yang, Youlong, 2018. "Subsampled support vector regression ensemble for short term electric load forecasting," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 164(C), pages 160-170.
    8. Guo, Zhifeng & Zhou, Kaile & Zhang, Xiaoling & Yang, Shanlin, 2018. "A deep learning model for short-term power load and probability density forecasting," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 160(C), pages 1186-1200.
    9. He, Feifei & Zhou, Jianzhong & Feng, Zhong-kai & Liu, Guangbiao & Yang, Yuqi, 2019. "A hybrid short-term load forecasting model based on variational mode decomposition and long short-term memory networks considering relevant factors with Bayesian optimization algorithm," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 237(C), pages 103-116.
    10. Guo-Feng Fan & Li-Ling Peng & Xiangjun Zhao & Wei-Chiang Hong, 2017. "Applications of Hybrid EMD with PSO and GA for an SVR-Based Load Forecasting Model," Energies, MDPI, vol. 10(11), pages 1-22, October.
    11. Kong, Xiangyu & Li, Chuang & Wang, Chengshan & Zhang, Yusen & Zhang, Jian, 2020. "Short-term electrical load forecasting based on error correction using dynamic mode decomposition," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 261(C).
    12. Zhu, Xiaoyue & Dang, Yaoguo & Ding, Song, 2020. "Using a self-adaptive grey fractional weighted model to forecast Jiangsu’s electricity consumption in China," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 190(C).
    13. Wang, Qiang & Jiang, Feng, 2019. "Integrating linear and nonlinear forecasting techniques based on grey theory and artificial intelligence to forecast shale gas monthly production in Pennsylvania and Texas of the United States," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 178(C), pages 781-803.
    14. Barman, Mayur & Dev Choudhury, N.B. & Sutradhar, Suman, 2018. "A regional hybrid GOA-SVM model based on similar day approach for short-term load forecasting in Assam, India," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 145(C), pages 710-720.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Hossam Fraihat & Amneh A. Almbaideen & Abdullah Al-Odienat & Bassam Al-Naami & Roberto De Fazio & Paolo Visconti, 2022. "Solar Radiation Forecasting by Pearson Correlation Using LSTM Neural Network and ANFIS Method: Application in the West-Central Jordan," Future Internet, MDPI, vol. 14(3), pages 1-24, March.
    2. Laouafi, Abderrezak & Laouafi, Farida & Boukelia, Taqiy Eddine, 2022. "An adaptive hybrid ensemble with pattern similarity analysis and error correction for short-term load forecasting," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 322(C).
    3. Aniket Vatsa & Ananda Shankar Hati & Vadim Bolshev & Alexander Vinogradov & Vladimir Panchenko & Prasun Chakrabarti, 2023. "Deep Learning-Based Transformer Moisture Diagnostics Using Long Short-Term Memory Networks," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(5), pages 1-14, March.
    4. Zhang, Xu & Sun, Yongjun & Gao, Dian-ce & Zou, Wenke & Fu, Jianping & Ma, Xiaowen, 2022. "Similarity-based grouping method for evaluation and optimization of dataset structure in machine-learning based short-term building cooling load prediction without measurable occupancy information," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 327(C).
    5. Palaniyappan, Balakumar & T, Vinopraba & Chandrasekaran, Geetha, 2023. "Solving electric power distribution uncertainty using deep learning and incentive-based demand response," Utilities Policy, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).
    6. Shichao Huang & Jing Zhang & Yu He & Xiaofan Fu & Luqin Fan & Gang Yao & Yongjun Wen, 2022. "Short-Term Load Forecasting Based on the CEEMDAN-Sample Entropy-BPNN-Transformer," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(10), pages 1-14, May.
    7. Mingping Liu & Xihao Sun & Qingnian Wang & Suhui Deng, 2022. "Short-Term Load Forecasting Using EMD with Feature Selection and TCN-Based Deep Learning Model," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(19), pages 1-22, September.
    8. Serrano-Arévalo, Tania Itzel & López-Flores, Francisco Javier & Raya-Tapia, Alma Yunuen & Ramírez-Márquez, César & Ponce-Ortega, José María, 2023. "Optimal expansion for a clean power sector transition in Mexico based on predicted electricity demand using deep learning scheme," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 348(C).
    9. Singh, Priyanka & Kottath, Rahul, 2022. "Influencer-defaulter mutation-based optimization algorithms for predicting electricity prices," Utilities Policy, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Guo‐Feng Fan & Yan‐Hui Guo & Jia‐Mei Zheng & Wei‐Chiang Hong, 2020. "A generalized regression model based on hybrid empirical mode decomposition and support vector regression with back‐propagation neural network for mid‐short‐term load forecasting," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(5), pages 737-756, August.
    2. Hafeez, Ghulam & Alimgeer, Khurram Saleem & Khan, Imran, 2020. "Electric load forecasting based on deep learning and optimized by heuristic algorithm in smart grid," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 269(C).
    3. Kong, Xiangyu & Li, Chuang & Wang, Chengshan & Zhang, Yusen & Zhang, Jian, 2020. "Short-term electrical load forecasting based on error correction using dynamic mode decomposition," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 261(C).
    4. Somu, Nivethitha & M R, Gauthama Raman & Ramamritham, Krithi, 2020. "A hybrid model for building energy consumption forecasting using long short term memory networks," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 261(C).
    5. Zhang, Ning & Li, Zhiying & Zou, Xun & Quiring, Steven M., 2019. "Comparison of three short-term load forecast models in Southern California," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 189(C).
    6. Talaat, M. & Farahat, M.A. & Mansour, Noura & Hatata, A.Y., 2020. "Load forecasting based on grasshopper optimization and a multilayer feed-forward neural network using regressive approach," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 196(C).
    7. Li, Chen, 2020. "Designing a short-term load forecasting model in the urban smart grid system," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 266(C).
    8. Yang, Dongchuan & Guo, Ju-e & Sun, Shaolong & Han, Jing & Wang, Shouyang, 2022. "An interval decomposition-ensemble approach with data-characteristic-driven reconstruction for short-term load forecasting," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 306(PA).
    9. Yuanyuan Zhou & Min Zhou & Qing Xia & Wei-Chiang Hong, 2019. "Construction of EMD-SVR-QGA Model for Electricity Consumption: Case of University Dormitory," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 7(12), pages 1-23, December.
    10. He, Feifei & Zhou, Jianzhong & Feng, Zhong-kai & Liu, Guangbiao & Yang, Yuqi, 2019. "A hybrid short-term load forecasting model based on variational mode decomposition and long short-term memory networks considering relevant factors with Bayesian optimization algorithm," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 237(C), pages 103-116.
    11. Shi, Jiaqi & Li, Chenxi & Yan, Xiaohe, 2023. "Artificial intelligence for load forecasting: A stacking learning approach based on ensemble diversity regularization," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 262(PB).
    12. Kailai Ni & Jianzhou Wang & Guangyu Tang & Danxiang Wei, 2019. "Research and Application of a Novel Hybrid Model Based on a Deep Neural Network for Electricity Load Forecasting: A Case Study in Australia," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(13), pages 1-30, June.
    13. Wei-Chiang Hong & Guo-Feng Fan, 2019. "Hybrid Empirical Mode Decomposition with Support Vector Regression Model for Short Term Load Forecasting," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(6), pages 1-16, March.
    14. Rafati, Amir & Joorabian, Mahmood & Mashhour, Elaheh, 2020. "An efficient hour-ahead electrical load forecasting method based on innovative features," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 201(C).
    15. Barman, Mayur & Dev Choudhury, Nalin Behari, 2019. "Season specific approach for short-term load forecasting based on hybrid FA-SVM and similarity concept," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 174(C), pages 886-896.
    16. Shaoqian Pei & Hui Qin & Liqiang Yao & Yongqi Liu & Chao Wang & Jianzhong Zhou, 2020. "Multi-Step Ahead Short-Term Load Forecasting Using Hybrid Feature Selection and Improved Long Short-Term Memory Network," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(16), pages 1-23, August.
    17. Haoran Zhao & Sen Guo, 2021. "Uncertain Interval Forecasting for Combined Electricity-Heat-Cooling-Gas Loads in the Integrated Energy System Based on Multi-Task Learning and Multi-Kernel Extreme Learning Machine," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 9(14), pages 1-32, July.
    18. Wei Sun & Chongchong Zhang, 2018. "A Hybrid BA-ELM Model Based on Factor Analysis and Similar-Day Approach for Short-Term Load Forecasting," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(5), pages 1-18, May.
    19. Ding, Song & Tao, Zui & Zhang, Huahan & Li, Yao, 2022. "Forecasting nuclear energy consumption in China and America: An optimized structure-adaptative grey model," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 239(PA).
    20. Da Liu & Kun Sun & Han Huang & Pingzhou Tang, 2018. "Monthly Load Forecasting Based on Economic Data by Decomposition Integration Theory," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(9), pages 1-22, September.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:juipol:v:73:y:2021:i:c:s0957178721001284. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.sciencedirect.com/journal/utilities-policy .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.