What drives returns to euro area housing? Evidence from a dynamic dividend-discount model
AbstractWe apply a dynamic dividend-discount model to analyse housing returns for eight euro area countries comprising over 90% of euro area GDP, both individually and as a panel. A vector autoregressive model (VAR) is estimated for four variables - excess return to housing, rents, the real interest rate and real disposable per capita income - using quarterly data over the period 1978-2009. This empirical investigation - which allows for a decomposition of house price movements into movements in rent (cash-flow) and expected return news components - indicates that the bulk of the variability of euro area house price movements can be attributed to movements in fundamentals. There remains nonetheless an important but less sizeable influence of market-wide (or expected-return) variations in house prices. Country-specific estimation indicates considerable heterogeneity around the euro area result, both for what concerns long-term impacts and dynamics. Notably, changes in expected returns play a relatively strong role in the house prices of Ireland and Spain.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Urban Economics.
Volume (Year): 70 (2011)
Issue (Month): 2-3 (September)
Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/622905
House price Housing rental yield Return decomposition Panel VAR estimation Cash flow news;
You can help add them by filling out this form.
CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
- Robert Hill & Iqbal A. Syed, 2012.
"Hedonic Price-Rent Ratios, User Cost, and Departures from Equilibrium in the Housing Market,"
2012-45, School of Economics, The University of New South Wales.
- Robert J. Hill & Iqbal A. Syed, 2012. "Hedonic Price-Rent Ratios, User Cost, and Departures from Equilibrium in the Housing Market," Graz Economics Papers 2012-08, University of Graz, Department of Economics.
- Vansteenkiste, Isabel & Hiebert, Paul, 2011. "Do house price developments spillover across euro area countries? Evidence from a global VAR," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 20(4), pages 299-314.
- Tom Engsted & Thomas Q. Pedersen, 2013. "Housing market volatility in the OECD area: Evidence from VAR based return decompositions," CREATES Research Papers 2013-04, School of Economics and Management, University of Aarhus.
- Kajuth, Florian & Knetsch, Thomas A. & Pinkwart, Nicolas, 2013. "Assessing house prices in Germany: Evidence from an estimated stock-flow model using regional data," Discussion Papers 46/2013, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Zhang, Lei).
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.