Locational fundamentals, trade, and the changing urban landscape of Mexico

Geography and history shape urbanization, but the importance of these factors may change over time. We trace Mexico’s urban development over 450 years using detailed subnational data on population, locational fundamentals, and trade access. The analysis shows that urbanization patterns remained largely unchanged from the colonial period until the mid-20th century despite major economic shocks, such as the collapse of Mexico’s indigenous population, the War of Independence, and the Mexican Revolution. However, the pull of historical population and the nature of geographic advantage were disrupted during the second half of the 20th century as international trade access began to play an important role in the emergence of new cities. The results indicate that while geography and history continue to influence urban development, economic policy can reshape these forces in important ways.