An opportunity to say no: Comparing local community attitudes toward onshore unconventional gas development in pre-approval and operational phases

Unconventional gas (UG) continues to play an important role in Australia's energy supply, though it depends on having a social licence in local regions where it is planned or operating. Little research has examined how a social licence for UG development varies between pre-approval and operating phases of the industry. Using survey data for 800 residents, this research examines overall attitudes and underlying perceptions of coal seam gas (CSG) in two agricultural regions in Australia in different phases of UG development – Narrabri, New South Wales (NSW) in the pre-approval phase and the Western Downs, Queensland (Qld) in the operational phase. While the proposed development was considerably smaller in Narrabri than in the Western Downs, Narrabri residents were more likely to reject the proposed CSG development. However, this was not due to these residents having less favourable underlying perceptions of CSG development. In fact, they viewed some aspects of CSG development more favourably than their Qld counterparts. The difference was attributed to a unique phase effect which we argue reflects an enhanced “opportunity to say no” in the pre-approval phase of development. Nonetheless, underlying perceptions still predicted individual variation in attitudes and feelings toward CSG very well, suggesting that while enhanced opposition can be expected in the pre-approval phase, overall attitudes and feelings can also become more positive by improving the underlying drivers important for determining local residents' perceptions of the industry such as industry impacts and benefits, governance, distributional fairness, and trust in the industry.