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The boom in mineral markets: How long might it last?

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  • Radetzki, Marian
  • Eggert, Roderick G.
  • Lagos, Gustavo
  • Lima, Marcos
  • Tilton, John E.

Abstract

The commodity price boom that emerged in 2004 has proved far more persevering than its predecessors of 1950 and 1973. Some analysts have suggested that it may represent the start of a "supercycle" caused by the voracious raw materials demand from China and other emerging economies, with prices remaining high for 20-30 years. We offer an alternative explanation. For a variety of reasons, the establishment of new capacity in minerals and energy to match the accelerated demand trends is more time consuming than commonly assumed, and may take a decade or longer. As soon as the new capacity is in place, however, the boom will be punctuated. Prices may collapse much earlier in the event of a severe recession that cuts the growth in commodity demand.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Resources Policy.

Volume (Year): 33 (2008)
Issue (Month): 3 (September)
Pages: 125-128

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Handle: RePEc:eee:jrpoli:v:33:y:2008:i:3:p:125-128

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Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/30467

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References

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  1. John T Cuddington & Daniel Jerrett, 2008. "Super Cycles in Real Metals Prices?," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 55(4), pages 541-565, December.
  2. Radetzki, Marian, 2006. "The anatomy of three commodity booms," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 56-64, March.
  3. Crowson, P., 2001. "Mining industry profitability?," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 33-42, March.
  4. Radetzki,Marian, 2008. "A Handbook of Primary Commodities in the Global Economy," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521880206, November.
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Cited by:
  1. Jerrett, Daniel & Cuddington, John T., 2008. "Broadening the statistical search for metal price super cycles to steel and related metals," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 188-195, December.
  2. Humphreys, David, 2010. "The great metals boom: A retrospective," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 1-13, March.
  3. World Bank, 2011. "Global Economic Prospects, Volume 2, January 2011 : Navigating Strong Currents," World Bank Publications, The World Bank, number 12097, January.
  4. Farooki, Masuma, 2012. "The diversification of the global mining equipment industry – Going new places?," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(4), pages 417-424.
  5. Fizaine, Florian, 2013. "Byproduct production of minor metals: Threat or opportunity for the development of clean technologies? The PV sector as an illustration," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(3), pages 373-383.
  6. John T. Cuddington & Abdel M. Zellou, 2012. "A Simple Mineral Market Model: Can it produce Super Cycles in prices?," Working Papers 2012-05, Colorado School of Mines, Division of Economics and Business.

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