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How valid are long-term government plans? Technological forecasting of the Korean biotechnology industry

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  • Moon, Sunung
  • Jeon, Yongil
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    Abstract

    The biotechnology industry has the potential to add economic spillover effects to a national economy but heavy investment and systematic planning are required. In 2007, Korea started the second stage of an ambitious government-led program, Bio Vision 2016, which is aimed to create an extended market size of 60 billion U.S. dollars by 2016. But, our long-term forecasting techniques predict roughly 5.5 billion U.S. dollars in constant price by 2016. Considering both professional judgment and the degree of current Korean government policies toward heavy investments in the biotechnology industries, however, is crucial to produce an accurate forecast. Thus, after these adjustments, the forecast value of the market size increases from 13 billion to 33 billion nominal U.S. dollars, depending on the investment strategy choices. We explain how our long-term forecasting values are computed and discuss possible reasons for the discrepancy between those prediction values. Also, we provide policy debates on whether the government goals are fully achievable.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Policy Modeling.

    Volume (Year): 31 (2009)
    Issue (Month): 6 (November)
    Pages: 891-902

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    Handle: RePEc:eee:jpolmo:v:31:y:2009:i:6:p:891-902

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    Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/505735

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    Keywords: Biotechnology Technology forecasting S-curve Korea Long-term forecast Professional judgment Bio Vision 2016;

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    1. Klein, Lawrence R., 2006. "Issues posed by chronic US deficits," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 28(6), pages 673-677, September.
    2. Artuso, Anthony, 2002. "Bioprospecting, Benefit Sharing, and Biotechnological Capacity Building," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 30(8), pages 1355-1368, August.
    3. Yang, Ji-Chung, 2005. "Impact measurement for public investment evaluation: An application to Korea," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 27(5), pages 535-551, July.
    4. Kim, Heon-Goo & Oh, Jeong Hun, 2004. "The role of IT on the Korean economy under IMF control," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 26(2), pages 181-190, February.
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    Cited by:
    1. Halkos, George E., 2011. "Nonparametric modelling of biodiversity: Determinants of threatened species," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 618-635, July.

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